A copula-based joint multinomial discrete–continuous model of vehicle type choice and miles of travel

In this paper, a joint model of vehicle type choice and utilization is formulated and estimated on a data set of vehicles drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey. The joint discrete–continuous model system formulated in this study explicitly accounts for common unobserved factors that may affect the choice and utilization of a certain vehicle type (i.e., self-selection effects). A new copula-based methodology is adopted to facilitate model estimation without imposing restrictive distribution assumptions on the dependency structures between the errors in the discrete and continuous choice components. The copula-based methodology is found to provide statistically superior goodness-of-fit when compared with previous estimation approaches for joint discrete–continuous model systems. The model system, when applied to simulate the impacts of a doubling in fuel price, shows that individuals are more likely to shift vehicle type choices than vehicle usage patterns.

Traveled distance,stock and fuel efficiency of private vehicles in Canada: price elasticities and rebound effect

This paper presents estimates of the rebound effect and other elasticities for the Canadian light-duty vehicle fleet using panel data at the provincial level from 1990 to 2004. We estimate a simultaneous three-equation model of aggregate demand for vehicle kilometers traveled, vehicle stock and fuel efficiency. Price and income elasticities obtained are broadly consistent with those reported in the literature. Among other results, an increase in the fuel price of 10% would reduce driving by ~2% in the long term and by 1% the average fuel consumption rate. Estimates of the short- and long-term rebound effects are ~8 and 20%, respectively. We also find that an increase in the gross domestic product per capita of 10% would cause an increase in driving distance of 2–3% and an increase of up to 4% in vehicle stock per adult. In terms of policy implications, our results suggest that: (1) the effectiveness of new fuel efficiency standards will be somewhat mitigated by the rebound effect and (2) fuel price increases have limited impacts on gasoline demand.

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Not</Emphasis> driving alone? American commuting in the twenty-first century

This paper investigates recent commuting trends by American workers. Unlike most studies of commuting that rely on data from the American Community Survey this study utilizes the American Time Use Survey to detail the complex commuting patterns of modern-day workers. Changes in the price of gasoline in recent years suggest that the incidence of “driving alone” should be on the decline. Indeed, results show that the sensitivity of modal commuting with respect to changes in gasoline prices appears to be relatively large. We estimate the gasoline-price elasticity of driving alone to be 0.057 and the gasoline-price elasticity of carpooling to be 0.502. Additional factors also affect commuting, including socio-economic characteristics and social desires. However, it is changes in gasoline prices that appear to account for nearly all of the recent variation in the mode chosen for commuting.     

Modeling the spatial and temporal dimensions of recreational activity participation with a focus on physical activities

This study presents a unified framework to understand the weekday recreational activity participation time-use of adults, with an emphasis on the time expended in physically active recreation pursuits by location and by time-of-day. Such an analysis is important for a better understanding of how individuals incorporate physical activity into their daily activities on a typical weekday, and can inform the development of effective policy interventions to facilitate physical activity. Furthermore, such a study of participation and time use in recreational activity episodes contributes to activity-based travel demand modeling, since recreational activity participation comprises a substantial share of individuals’ total non-work activity participation. The methodology employed here is the multiple discrete continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model, which provides a unified framework to explicitly and endogenously examine time use by type, location, and timing. The data for the empirical analysis is drawn from the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS), supplemented with other secondary sources that provide information on physical environment variables. To our knowledge, this is the first study to jointly address the issues of ‘where’, ‘when’ and ‘how much’ individuals choose to participate in ‘what type of (recreational) activity’.     

Advances in population synthesis: fitting many attributes per agent and fitting to household and person margins simultaneously

Agent-based microsimulation models of transportation, land use or other socioeconomic processes require an initial synthetic population derived from census data, conventionally created using the iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure. This paper introduces a novel computational method that allows the synthesis of many more attributes and finer attribute categories than previous approaches, both of which are long-standing limitations discussed in the literature. Additionally, a new approach is used to fit household and person zonal attribute distributions simultaneously. This technique was first adopted to address limitations specific to Canadian census data, but could also be useful in U.S. and other applications. The results of each new method are evaluated empirically in terms of goodness-of-fit.     

Investigation on maneuverability of a twin-screw ship driven by one screw

It is possible for a twin-screw ship that one screw failure occurs during navigation, and the maneuverability in this case should be noticed by ship designers and operators. It is of great significance to evaluate the related risk. Firstly, a mathematical model for the twin-screw ship maneuvering motion with one failed screw is developed based on the maneuvering model group (MMG) equations, and verified by the model test results. Secondly, the maneuvering motions of a twin-screw liquefied natural gas (LNG) ship with one free rotating failure screw or with one locked failure screw are simulated and compared by using the mathematical model. It is shown that the numerical modeling results are in agreement with the model test results. Compared with those of normal navigation, the port turning ability of the ship with one failed port screw is better, but the starboard turning ability and yaw checking ability become worse. The maneuverability of the ship with locked failure screw is better than that with free failure screw, although the ship speed drops obviously.     

Warship spare parts configuration optimization for stock control: Investigating the gap between qualitative and quantitative constraints

This paper investigates the gap between qualitative and quantitative constraints in spare parts stock control, with specific reference to warship spare parts support projects. A critical literature review of theoretical contributions about qualitative or quantitative factors for warship spare parts warehouse management is firstly provided, which allows to analyze the reasons for this qualitative-quantitative gap by addressing the limitations of spare parts models developed in the literature. Therefore a model including cloud model, marginal analysis and Lagrange multiplier method (CML) for study is proposed in this paper to bridge the gap. The model is used to solve the mix-constraints (both qualitative and quantitative constraints are considered) problem in a logic decision diagram particularly at the different decision nodes of the diagram. Finally, verifying test results show that the algorithm is feasible and its optimal support project meets the needs of engineering practices.     

Theoretical analysis of Er<Superscript>3+</Superscript>-doped telluride glass fiber amplifier for 2.700 μm laser amplification

The rate equations and power evolution equations of erbium-doped telluride glass fiber amplifier for both 1.530 and 2.700 μm lasers are solved numerically, the dependences of gain spectra on fiber length, dopant concentration and pump power are analyzed, and the gain of 2.700 μm laser is calculated and compared with the experimental result from reference. The numerical analysis shows that with 8 × 10²⁴ ion/m³ erbium ion concentration, 5m fiber length and 600mW pump power, the gains at 1.530 and 2.700 μm may achieve 23dB or so. With larger power pump and higher dopant concentration, a net gain of 17 dB is obtained from the Er³⁺-doped telluride glass fiber amplifier for 110mW input signal. This fiber amplifier is promising for both 1.530 μm signal amplification and 2.700 μm laser amplification.     

A new fractal model of elastic,elastoplastic and plastic normal contact stiffness for slow sliding interface considering dynamic friction and strain hardening

The deflection properties of elastic stage, elastoplastic stage and plastic stage of elastomer were analyzed. Taking account of the kinetic friction force in friction interface and strain hardening in slow sliding interface, the elastic, elastoplastic and plastic normal contact stiffness model for harsh surface was established, which revised the Majumdar-Bhushan fractal model and made it more perfect. In the combination of macro and micro perspective, the effects of coarse surface fractal variables, kinetic friction force in the friction interface, material characters of the friction couples on the contact status and contact property were discussed by the study of digital analysis. Results imply that the normal contact stiffness improves with the increasing real contact area and normal contact load, and reduces with the augment of kinetic friction coefficient. When the kinetic friction coefficient is smaller than 0.3, the normal contact stiffness comprises a linear decrease with the increment of kinetic friction coefficient. When the kinetic friction coefficient is bigger than 0.3, the normal contact stiffness has an exponential decrease with the increasing kinetic friction coefficient.     

Substructuring technique for dynamics analysis of flexible beams with large deformation

In this paper, the substructuring technique is extended for the dynamics simulation of flexible beams with large deformation. The dynamics equation of a spatial straight beam undergoing large displacement and small deformation is deduced by using the Jourdain variation principle and the model synthesis method. The longitudinal shortening effect due to the transversal deformation is taken into consideration in the dynamics equation. In this way, the geometric stiffening effect, which is also called stress stiffening effect, is accounted for in the dynamics equation. The transfer equation of the flexible beam is obtained by assembling the dynamics equation and the kinematic relationship between the two connection points of the flexible beam. Treating a flexible beam with small deformation as a substructure, one can solve the dynamics of a flexible beam with large deformation by using the substructuring technique and the transfer matrix method. The dynamics simulation of a flexible beam with large deformation is carried out by using the proposed approach and the results are verified by comparing with those obtained from Abaqus software.