Power network parameter estimation method based on data mining technology

The parameter values which actually change with the circumstances, weather and load level etc.produce great effect to the result of state estimation. A new parameter estimation method based on data mining technology was proposed. The clustering method was used to classify the historical data in supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) database as several types. The data processing technology was impliedto treat the isolated point, missing data and yawp data in samples for classified groups. The measurement data which belong to each classification were introduced to the linear regression equation in order to gain the regression coefficient and actual parameters by the least square method. A practical system demonstrates the high correctness, reliability and strong practicability of the proposed method.     

Marine accident analysis for collision and grounding in oil tanker using FTA method

In this study, collision and grounding data registered in GISIS (Global Integrated Shipping Information System) were investigated for oil tankers. The database includes the information of the collision and grounding accidents during the period between 1998 and 2010 in oil tankers. The risk assessments were carried out using fault tree analysis (FTA) programme for the incidents as collision and grounding occurred in oil tankers. In this study, we were able to investigate first the potential problems which cause the collision and grounding accidents have been determined, second, the occurrence of accidents has been shown with causal factors by the FTA method, and, finally, the significance degree of the initial events causing occurrence of accidents have been put forth. Collision in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (81%), pollution (6%) and death or injury (13%). Grounding in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (91%) and pollution (9%). According to the FTA results, the main reason for the accidents originating from human error is as follows: for collision accidents, Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG) violation and the lack of communication between vessels; and for grounding accidents, the interpretation failure of the officer on watch and lack of communication in the bridge resource management.     

低阻通风船体的远程控制测试平台开发（英文）

This paper addresses the development and testing of a remotely controlled boat platform with an innovative air-ventilated hull. The application of air cavities on the underside of ship hulls is a promising means for reducing hydrodynamic drag and pollutant emissions and increasing marine transportation efficiency. Despite this concept’s potential, design optimization and high-performance operation of novel air-cavity ships remain a challenging problem. Hull construction and sensor instrumentation of the model-scale air-cavity boat is described in the paper. The modular structure of the hull allows for easy modifications, and an electric propulsion unit enables self-propelled operation. The boat is controlled remotely via a radio transmission system. Results of initial tests are reported, including thrust, speed, and airflow rate in several loading conditions. The constructed platform can be used for optimizing air-cavity systems and testing other innovative hull designs. This system can be also developed into a high-performance unmanned boat.     

Virtual prototype simulation on underwater hydraulic impingement shovel

The virtual prototype technology is applied to the design of the hydraulic impingement shovel, which is to increase the reliability of the design. The work principle of hydraulic impingement shovel is expatiated, and its dynamic equations are established. The 3D model of virtual prototype is built by PRO/E. Then the couple between the mechanical body of prototype and the hydraulic system is completed by virtue of ADAMS. Finally, the simulation is made on the virtual prototype. The simulation results show that the design of underwater hydraulic impingement shovel is rational. The virtual prototype technology could lay sound foundation of successful manufacturing of physical prototype for the first time and offer highly effective and feasible means for the design and production of underwater equipments.     

Experimental study on the width of the turbulent area around bridge pier

At present, the method of calculating the turbulent flow width around the bridge pier is not given in the "Standard for Inland River Navigation" (GB50139-2004) in China, and the bridge designer usually increases the bridge span in order to ensure the navigation safety, which increases both of the structural design difficulty and the project investments. Therefore, it is extremely essential to give a research on the turbulent flow width around the bridge pier. Through the experiments of the fixed bed and the mobile bed, the factors influencing the turbulent flow width around the bridge pier have been analyzed, such as the approaching flow speed, the water depth, the angles between the bridge pier and the flow direction, the sizes of bridge pier, the shapes of the bridge pier, and the scouring around the bridge pier, etc. Through applying the dimension analytic method to the measured data, the formula of calculating the turbulent flow width around the bridge pier is then inferred.     

Using a SVM to evaluate damage to vibration isolators in an elastic raft system

Predicting damage to vibration isolators in a raft experiencing heavy shock loadings from explosions is an important task when designing a raft system. It is also vital to be able to research the vulnerability of heavily shocked floating rafts unreliable, especially when the allowable values The conventional approach to prediction has been or ultimate values of vibration isolators of supposedly uniform standard in a raft actually have differing and uncertain values due to defective workmanship. A new model for predicting damage to vibration isolators in a shocked floating raft system is presented in this paper. It is based on a support vector machine（SVM）, which uses Artificial Intelligence to characterize complicated nonlinear mapping between the impacting environment and damage to the vibration isolators. The effectiveness of the new method for predicting damage was illustrated by numerical simulations, and shown to be effective when relevant parameters of the model were chosen reasonably. The effect determining parameters, including kernel function and penalty factors, has on prediction results is also discussed. It can be concluded that the SVM will probably become a valid tool to study damage or vulnerability in a shocked raft system.     

A second order volume of fluid （VOF） scheme for numerical simulation of 2-D breaking waves

Among all environmental forces acting on ocean structures and marine vessels, those resulting from wave impacts are likely to yield the highest loads. Being highly nonlinear, transient and complex, a theoretical analysis of their impact would be impossible without numerical simulations. In this paper, a pressure-split two-stage numerical algorithm is proposed based on Volume Of Fluid (VOF) methodology. The algorithm is characterized by introduction of two pressures at each half and full cycle time step, and thus it is a second-order accurate algorithm in time. A simplified second-order Godunov-type solver is used for the continuity equations. The method is applied to simulation of breaking waves in a 2-D water tank, and a qualitative comparison with experimental photo observations is made. Quite consistent results are observed between simulations and experiments. Commercially available software and Boundary Integral Method (BIM) have also been used to simulate the same problem. The results from present code and BIM are in good agreement with respect to breaking location and timing, while the results obtained from the commercial software which is only first-order accurate in time has clearly showed a temporal and spatial lag, verifying the need to use a higher order numerical scheme.     

Determinants of the property damage costs of bulk barge accidents

This study investigates determinants of the vessel, cargo, and other-property damage costs of bulk barge accidents in US inland waterways. Tobit estimation of a three-equation recursive model suggests that, in bulk barge accidents: (1) vessel damage cost is greater for collision, fire/explosion, and material/equipment failure accidents than for groundings; (2) cargo damage cost is greater at night and when the weather is foggy and increases with barge age; and (3) otherproperty damage cost is greater for multi-vessel accidents, but decreases with barge size. A dollar of vessel damage cost increases other-property damage cost by $1.38, while a dollar of cargo damage cost increases this cost by $6.90. An important result for formulating bulk barge accident cost-reduction policies is that a given determinant might have a negative effect on one type of damage cost but a positive effect on another.     

Analysis of factors that may be essential in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners

This research investigates factors that influence opinion in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners primarily from the perspective of aviation and technology professionals. Bayesian statistical inference and a two‐level fractional factorial survey are used to sample passengers' views on fully autonomous airliners. Eight trust, safety, and cost factors are incorporated into a vignette set in the future. Factors include automation levels, safety records, liability guarantees, airline integrity, and service disruptions. Dependent variables exist in five post‐vignette questions and essentially ask “Would you” or “Would you not” be willing to fly on a fully autonomous airliner? Sixteen versions of the vignette, each with unique trust, safety, and cost levels, present varying (unknown) degrees of influence to the survey respondents. For every demographic, the research shows a 99% statistically significant difference between the “prior” and “posterior” sampled population proportions willing to fly. The most significant positive influence involves integrity characteristics of the airline, while the most negative influence relates to life insurance liability guarantees. Research from 2003 suggested that this mode of travel would be acceptable to only 10.5% of respondents. When the 2003 research is used as a Bayesian prior probability, the resulting posterior probability for the demographics sampled can be modeled as a beta distribution, indicating 95% probability that the sampled proportion of the population willing to fly is between 33.2% and 36.4%. After adjusting for age and profession demographics to match the US population, the 95% probability bounds on the proportion willing to fly are 31.35% and 34.15%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The planning and analysis of a new group rapid transit system: the SkyCabs monobeam system in Auckland

This paper examines a case study of the SkyCabs system as a way to alleviate some of the traffic problems of Auckland, New Zealand. SkyCabs is an elevated two-way monobeam carrying light eight-seater cabs on tracks on each side of the beam, available on demand, providing fast, pollution-free, unimpeded travel above the footpath with panoramic views of the city. The aim of this study is to investigate the attractiveness of implementing the SkyCabs system to and from Auckland central business district (CBD) and Auckland international airport by examining four variables: different routes, different number of stops/stations, different passenger demand levels, and different number of cabs in the system. The analysis utilizes geographical information system and simulation tools for the various scenarios considered. The results show that it is possible to assess the cost–benefit of alternative routes in terms of those four variables and rate of return on investment.