1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

US Navy Studies on Alternative Fuel Sources and Power and Propulsion Methods for Surface Combatants and Amphibious Warfare Ships

The US Navy has been studying the technical and cost impacts associated with the availability and cost of fossil fuel contrasted with nuclear energy alternatives for surface combatants and amphibious warfare ships. Over the past 2 years these efforts have grown in maturity to examine the tactical and strategic implications of our Navy's dependence on fossil fuels from technical, economic, and military perspectives. This paper will present three major topics:

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  Background research on alternative energy sources.
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  A survey discussion of current and future power and propulsion system technologies.
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  An overview of principal Naval Sea Systems Command studies on the integration of alternative power and propulsion system technologies into notional surface combatants, submarines, and amphibious warfare ships.

Given the US Navy's dependence on fossil fuels and the expected increase in cost and reduced availability of fossil fuel, propulsion system investment decisions made today will have a profound impact on the future tactical and strategic roles of the US Navy surface fleet. This paper lays the foundation for providing robust and flexible technology decision opportunities for the Navy's future.     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip

A stated preference experiment was performed in Calgary in Canada to examine how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. A total of 635 complete observations were obtained. In each observation the respondent was presented with a set of possible departure time scenarios and asked to indicate the order of preference for these scenarios. Each scenario was described by specifying the automobile travel time, the expected arrival time relative to the movie start time, the parking cost, the probability of being at least ten minutes late for the movie and the length of time the movie had been running. This forced the respondent to trade off between conditions regarding these attributes. Age, gender and frequency of movie attendance were also recorded. The observations thus obtained were used to estimate the parameter values for a range of alternative utility functions in logit models representing this choice behaviour. The results indicate that all of the attributes included have significant effects on departure time choice in the situation being considered. They also indicate that travellers are prepared to arrive roughly two minutes early for each minute of travel time saved; that the money value of driving time for trips to recreational activities is about half that for trips to work; that one additional percent in the probability of arriving late is equivalent to roughly 0.20 Canadian dollars or 1.93 minutes drive time; and that there is a preference for a non-zero expected early arrival time regardless of the associated probability of arriving late. Some of these results are novel and others are consistent with findings for work trips in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to the approach being used here.     

Stabilization Control for Rider-Motorcycle Model in Hamiltonian Form

This study deals with dynamics and control of a rider-motorcycle system model in Hamiltonian form. The model is established to account for not only the motorcycle dynamics but also changes in rider's postures. Tyre forces are treated as external forces and rider's control actions contain three actuation torques. The Hamiltonian system is subject to dissipation effects due to tyre forces and rider's control torques. In addition to the total Hamiltonian, a generalized free energy is employed in formulation. Lyapunov's second method provides sufficient conditions for stability. Variable structure system (VSS) control is used to account for stabilization control exerted by the rider. Simulation results validate the proposed method.     

Biochemical composition of marine sediment from the eastern Weddell Sea (Antarctica): High nutritive value in a high benthic-biomass environment

Within the SCAR's international EASIZ programme, as part of the benthic–pelagic coupling experiment, grain size and organic matter contents in marine surface sediment were measured. Samples were taken during the austral autumn of 2000 from 3 regions in the eastern Weddell Sea: Kapp Norvegia, Four Seasons Bank, and Austasen.In general, sediments were fine sand with a grain size fraction < 200 μm representing more than 40% of the total weight. The sediments from Four Seasons Bank (64 to 107 m depth) were coarser than those from Austasen and Kapp Norvegia (209 to 480 m depth), presumably due to winnowing of fine sediment at shallow depths. Organic carbon (OC) content ranged from 0.25% to 1.2% and constituted 10% to 97% of the total carbon. The samples from Kapp Norvegia presented the highest OC values. Overall, protein (PRT), lipid (LPD), and carbohydrate (CHO) contents were similar to those in sediment from cold regions (e.g., the North Atlantic and the Ross Sea) but higher than those in sediment from other Antarctic and more septentrional regions (e.g., the Ross Sea and the Mediterranean). The difference within the Antarctic is explained through the local conditions in Terra Nova Bay and Kapp Norvegia. In the Antarctic, PRT and LPD carbon were the main contributors to the biopolymeric carbon (BPC). In the eastern Weddell Sea shelf, the BPC accounted for more than 90% of the OC in most of the samples. More than 82% of the total PRT, LPD, and CHO were present in the fraction < 200 μm. This work remarks the existence of sediments with a high nutritional value persistent several weeks after the spring–summer pulse of fresh organic matter. It is also highlighted the high potential availability of these sediments (due to its grain size) for the benthic communities inhabiting this high-latitude continental shelf.     

The importance of Öresund and the Drogden Sill for Baltic inflow

Based on high resolution current and salinity measurements from the Flinten and Drogden Channels, this paper assesses the relative importance of major Baltic inflows on ‘everyday' flow conditions of highly saline water (S>17 PSU) through the Öresund for a period of 43 months. During years with no major Baltic inflows, 1994–1996, it is found that the Öresund on average supplies 1.2 Peta-grams (Pg) of salt net/year to the Baltic, while inflow above 17 PSU is in the order of 2.3 to 4.0 Pg/year. Sixty percent of this inflow is in the salinity range 17–23 PSU; the remainder has a higher salinity. It is, thus, concluded that normal and regularly occurring flow in the Öresund plays a much larger role in supplying salt to the Baltic than is usually assumed.     

Overturning Stability of Three Wheeled Motorized Vehicles

Three wheeled motorized vehicles are a major mode of public transport in many countries. These vehicles are prone to overturning even during normal turning and obstacle avoidance maneuvers. This paper presents a parametric analysis of a mathematical model of the vehicle and evolves guidelines for improving the overturning stability in terms of vehicle geometry and suspension properties.

Differential equations governing the dynamic behavior of the vehicle are derived on the basis of a six degree of freedom model. The vehicle response to variations in steering, engine power and braking inputs is then numerically simulated. The effects of vehicle geometry and elasto-damping suspension coefficients on the vehicle stability are presented. The results indicate an optimum position of the center of gravity where the vehicle is most stable. While stiffer suspensions favour stability, there exists an optimum value of suspension damping for which the minimum wheel load is a maximum.     

Economics of regulation in shipping

In this paper the author explores the nature and scope of social regulation in shipping comparing its nature with that of economic regulation per se. Whilst economic regulation affects liner shipping only, social regulation—impelled by a specific concern for health and environmental protection, rather than a desire for optimal resource allocation—effects all types of shipping. The legislation emerging from this has had important (and often overlooked)economic impact; focusing on the conditions, under which a carrier discharges his duties, these regulations may determine, to a greater or lesser degree, the levels of cost and service. He concludes that, whilst the concept of social regulation has a valid, humanitarian base, the cost of its implementation should not be underestimated.