Young drivers and graduated licensing: The Ontario case

Despite improvements in road safety over the past several decades, accident rates remain high for young drivers. One accident countermeasure that is expected to improve the safety record of this group is graduated licensing. The philosophy behind this licensing system is that novice drivers, of whom the majority are young, should be restricted to relatively safe driving environments during the initial learning period. Graduated licensing was implemented in the Province of Ontario, Canada in 1994. The objective of this study is to estimate the potential benefits and costs for young drivers associated with two components of the Ontario graduated licensing package: the late-night driving curfew and the high-speed roadway restrictions. Based on accident and travel data for the year 1988, accident-involvement rates per kilometre driven were calculated for different driver groups for various combinations of time of day and roadway speed limit. These rates were then applied to the expected mobility profiles of young drivers affected by graduated licensing. The results of the study support the late-night curfew and suggest that this component of the licensing package should reduce total accident involvements for the affected group by up to 10 percent and fatal accident involvements by up to 24 percent, while reducing their total driving by only four percent. By contrast, the empirical evidence suggest that the high-speed roadway restrictions are likely to increase accident involvements, and thus it is strongly recommended that this component of Ontario's graduated licensing package be changed.     

Transit assignment under crowded conditions

This paper presents a transit assignment algorithm for crowded networks. Both congestion in vehicles and queuing at stations are explicitly taken into account in predicting passenger flows for a fixed pattern of origin-destination trip demands. The overflow effects due to insufficient capacity of transit lines are considered to be concentrated at transit stations, while the in-vehicle congestion effects (or discomforts) are considered to be dependent on in-vehicle passenger volume. Overflow delay at a transit station is dependent on the number of excess passengers required to wait for the next transit car. We use a logit model to determine the split between passengers that chose to wait for the next transit car and passengers that chose to board on the alternative transit lines. The proposed algorithm predicts how passenger will choose their optimal routes under both queuing and crowded conditions.     

加入WTO对中国国际集装箱运输的影响

作为现代国际货物运输主要载体的国际集装箱,以其优势成为现代货物运输的主要发展方向.加入WTO后的中国将进一步扩大对外商品交流,这需要运输系统强有力的支持.因此,研究分析入世对中国国际集装箱运输的影响,探讨其应对措施,对于中国对外贸易竞争力的提高有着深远的战略意义和重要的现实意义.     

Consolidation and contestability in the European container handling industry

The first part of this paper brings into discussion some recent changes in the dynamics of the European container handling business, in particular as a result of vertical and horizontal integration strategies of container terminal operators. The industry structure has become sufficiently consolidated to raise a fundamental question about whether market forces are sufficient to prevent the abuse of market power. In this context, reference is made to the theory of contestable markets. The second part of the paper looks more closely to the issue of contestability by means of an exploratory and qualitative study of elements that could prevent other players entering or exiting the European container handling market. As such, a first indication is given of the degree of contestability in the container handling industry.     

Dynamics of Tracked Vehicles

This paper provides a brief review of the state-of-the-art of tracked vehicle dynamics, including mobility over soft terrain, ride dynamics over rough surfaces and manoeuvrability. It is found that considerable progress has been made in the development of analytical frameworks for evaluating and predicting tracked vehicle mobility over soft terrain, taking into account the characteristics of terrain response to normal and shear loading. Certain computer simulation models for tracked vehicle mobility have been gaining increasingly wide acceptance by industry and governmental agencies in product development and in procurement. It is also found that most of the research on tracked vehicle ride dynamics and manoeuvrability is confined to operations on rigid surfaces. To achieve a realistic evaluation and prediction of the dynamic behaviour of tracked vehicles in the field, the key is to have a better understanding of terrain response to dynamic vehicular loading, including its dynamic stiffness and damping. Challenges that face vehicle dynamicists in this emerging field are identified.     

Active Roll Control for Passenger Cars

The development of a mathematical model of a limited bandwidth hydro-pneumatic suspension that is incorporated into a vehicle handling model is described. The combined model is used to evaluate a suitable control strategy for eliminating body roll during a cornering manoeuvre. The philosophy behind the roll control strategy has been to use feedback measurements of the body motions which do not compromise the ride control. A study of the influence of the position of the body motion feedback transducer on the effectiveness of the system to reduce the body roll is presented. Non-linear modelling of the suspension components for a 0.8g cornering manoeuvre has revealed performance limitations. Conclusions are drawn as to the effectiveness of the control scheme.     

胃食管反流性胸痛的临床特点及食管测压分析

对２４例胃食管反流性胸痛患者的食管测压分析，显示可出现食管下扩约肌静止压及食管上扩约肌静止压异常升高、体部高幅蠕动或蠕动紊乱等不同类型的食管运动障碍。表明胃食管反流性胸痛的发生与这种食管的运动障碍有关。对其发生机理及临床特点进行了讨论。     

Benthic community patterns reflect water column processes in the Northeast Water polynya (Greenland)

Benthic community patterns were investigated in the Northeast Water polynya (Greenland) during the summers of 1992 and 1993 to elucidate to what extent the bottom fauna is influenced by the dynamics of the overlying water. Five different fractions of the benthos (foraminiferans, nematodes, polychaetes, peracarid crustaceans, and epibenthic megafauna), ranging in average adult body size over 6 orders of magnitude (from about 100 μm to about 10 cm), were sampled quantitatively at 69 stations in water depths from 40 to 515 m. Total abundances of nematodes, polychaetes and peracarid crustaceans were found to be primarily correlated with parameters characterizing the potential benthic food supply (water column pigment and nitrate concentrations, sediment bound pigments and sediment biological activity), whereas abundances of foraminiferans and megabenthos were largely associated with seabed properties. Four benthic zones were distinguished by separately analyzing the faunistic composition and distribution of the five community fractions for Ob Bank, Western Westwind Trough, Eastern Westwind Trough, and Belgica Trough. This pattern was shown principally to reflect pelagic regimes differing in surface water hydrography, ice cover and euphotic productivity. This is the first time that a synoptic study of several benthic community portions spanning such a range in sizes and life styles has been performed in a polar shelf ecosystem. Our results indicate that abundances as well as composition of Arctic benthos are largely influenced by mesoscale pelagic processes, and thus provide further evidence for the importance of the benthic-pelagic coupling in high latitude seas.     

The potential for real-time passenger information as part of an integrated bus-control/information system

This paper is concerned with the effect of linking innovative bus-control systems with real-time passenger information, with the overall aim of improving conditions for bus operation and passengers in central urban corridors. The first section presents a concise review of bus passenger information systems (particularly their application at bus stops). Then the concept of real-time passenger information is explored. The case for and against real-time information is argued and two British case-studies follow. In the second section it is argued that the provision of real-time information, as part of an integrated bus-control/information system, offers new possibilities for meeting the identified needs of public transport users. Finally, in the third section, some comments are made on the evaluation of different combinations of bus-control and passenger information tested using a simulation method and a series of subjective response surveys. General relationships governing the degree of bus-control required and the extent of information needed are of special interest.     

Risk and return of U.S. water transportation stocks over time and over bull and bear market conditions

The aim of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of water transportation company stock returns in the U.S. stock exchanges from 1985 to 1994 in order to determine whether the systematic risk of this industry is different from that of the 'average' company in the market, whether it has changed over the ten year period, over bull and bear market conditions, and whether there is a firm 'size' effect in the industry. In the context of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (Capm), we find that the systematic risk of the shipping industry return is not different from that of the 'average' company. It is also found that the covariance of water transportation companies with respect to the overall stock market return did not change over the ten year period although it appears that it has changed over normal upward/downward market movements. There is also reasonable evidence that the intercept of the equation might have changed over normal upward/downward market movements. Finally, we document contradictory evidence regarding the size effect; during the period 1985-1989 we find small companies to have significantly higher returns and risk while during the period 1990-1994 medium size companies tend to have higher risk than small and large firms, which is not however compensated by higher returns.