Can mixed logit reveal the actual data generating process? Some implications for environmental assessment

Recent advances in the specification of the utility function of mixed logit models allow the analyst, in principle, to consider a vast variety of individual heterogeneity. Nevertheless, when estimating the model it is common practice to experience severe difficulties in discriminating between different specifications to infer the “true” data generating process. We investigate possible sources for this difficulty focusing on the confounding effects inherent in two basic assumptions of discrete choice model utilities: linearity in the parameters and added error terms. We analyse the role of these assumptions in giving rise to confounding effects and why this increases the difficulty of discriminating among different structures. Finally, we investigate how these problems may affect benefit appraisal using these models. Empirical evidence is provided for two different environmental contexts and a more typical transport context using various kinds of data.     

Strong bottom–up effects on phytoplankton community caused by a rainfall during spring and summer in Sagami Bay,Japan

To assess the consequences of bottom-up effects on phytoplankton community composition during the rainy season, phytoplankton levels and environmental factors were monitored daily from 12 April to 22 July 2003 in Sagami Bay, Japan. The relevant environmental factors were analyzed using cross-correlation analyses. Based on time-series analysis, low surface salinity conditions lasting 0 or 2 days after heavy rainfalls resulted in significant nutrient loading, such as dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), into the coastal area. Also, Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration frequently increased 2 and 6 days after rainfall. Based on the high total Chl-a concentration, the time was divided into three periods, from 1 to 11 May (Period A), 26 May to 9 June (Period B) and 30 June to 22 July (Period C). The phytoplankton assemblages during Period A were dominated by two dinoflagellates, Ceratium furca and Ceratium fusus. Prior to these species blooming, the heterotrophic dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans was dominant. During Period B, the phytoplankton communities were dominated primarily by the diatoms Rhizosolenia delicatula, Hemiaulus sinensis and Navicula spp. Finally, Cerataulina dentata, Rhizosolenia spp., Lauderia borealis and Neodelphineis pelagica were dominant during Period C. After increases in phytoplankton abundance, available nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) were consumed and exhausted, which were considered a potential cause of the shift in the dominant organisms from large diatoms to pico- and nano-plankton in the low Chl-a environment. In particular, silicate (Si) was not a major limiting factor for phytoplankton production, since the Si:DIN and Si:P ratios clearly demonstrated that there were no any potential stoichiometric Si limitations, and almost all silicate concentrations were > 2.0 µM during this study. Our results reveal that nutrient sources supplied by river discharge are a main cue for strong bottom–up effects on algal bloom succession during the early summer season in Sagami Bay.     

American and European transportation responses to the 1973–74 oil embargo

A survey of U.S. and European responses to the energy crises engendered by the Arab boycott of October 1973–April 1974 is presented. U.S. Government policy actions with respect to allocation, rationing, price, and conservation measures are reviewed and contrasted with those of affected European governments. The results of those policies and their effects on transportation energy supply and demand behavior with respect to both commodity and passenger movement are described.Based on short- and long-term impact assessments of the policies considered, the authors identify significant research requirements.The authors were heavily engaged in U.S. responses to the energy emergency, and were asked to undertake study missions to those European nations significantly affected by the crisis to seek out avenues for mutual aid, and joint research, in resolving common energy problems. This paper is one product of those study missions.     

Estimation and validation of a microscopic model for spatial economic effects of transport infrastructure

The spatial economic effects in integrated land use and transport models are increasingly disaggregate and can benefit from improved knowledge into the effect of accessibility and agglomeration on the spatial behaviour of firms. This article strives to contribute to this knowledge by first analysing the influence of accessibility and agglomeration on firm behaviour with exceptionally detailed firm data for the province of South Holland in The Netherlands. Next the added value of incorporating such effects in urban simulation models is tested with two series of validation runs with a microscopic model for firm dynamics.The presented Spatial Firm-demographic Micro-simulation (SFM) model simulates transitions and events in the firm population, including firm relocations, firm growth, firm dissolution and firm formation. Accessibility is measured with proximity to infrastructure access points and logsums of business and commuting trips from a transport model. Agglomeration measures are based on theories from urban economics and integrate travel time range bands into measures for specialisation and diversification. Estimation results confirm a significant influence of accessibility and agglomeration on the choice behaviour of firms. Application of these measures prove to increase the validity of the firm-demographic simulation model to a significant but modest extend.     

Review and assessment of the nested logit model

The popular hierarchical or nested logit model that has been the recent source of heated discussions in the literature is reviewed and critically examined. The fundamental underpinnings of the model are first presented in a concise and easy-to-understand fashion and then used to assess each controversy in turn. Monte Carlo simulation is also used to examine some problems that are not possible to address by just resorting to the theory. The main conclusion is that all the model hypotheses are both essential and unambiguous and should not be ignored for a correct use of the model in practice.     

Assessing the performance of SpeedInfo radar traffic sensors

Traffic speed is a crucial input for real-time traffic management applications. Operating agencies typically deploy their own sensors to collect the measurements, e.g., loop detectors. Recently, SpeedInfo emerged with a different paradigm for traffic speed collection: instead of selling hardware to operating agencies, at each link the company deploys its own Doppler radar in a self-contained wireless unit to measure traffic speeds and then sells the speed data. This study uses well-tuned loop detector-based speed measurements to evaluate 15 of the Doppler radar sensors over several months while the two traffic data collection systems were operating concurrently. The extended study period includes potentially challenging and transient conditions for the radar sensors: both recurrent (rush hour congestion and late night low flow) and nonrecurrent (incidents and precipitation). The analysis took a broad overview, comparing speed measurements from the radar sensors against the concurrent loop detector data and then explicitly looked for any anomalous pattern in the radar data such as latency and system outages. The work found the radar measurements are generally good, but also identified several points that should be considered before deployment, including latency, different biases in free flow and congestion, vulnerability to precipitation, and sensitivity to mounting angle.     

The external cost of speed at sea: An analysis based on selected short sea shipping routes

According to the mid-term review of the EU White Paper on Transport, Short Sea Shipping (SSS) is expected to grow at a rate of 59% (metric tonnes) between 2000 and 2020. If we consider that the overall expected increase in both freight exchanges and volume is 50%, sea transport is one of the most feasible alternatives to reduce traffic congestion on European roads. Maritime transportation may compete with road transport as far as certain traffics are concerned, but only when assuming external costs. This paper analyzes several intermodal transport chains involving a sea leg by comparing the effect of pollutant emissions from different ship types and road transport in terms of potential external cost savings. The translation of these emissions into environmental costs shows, for certain conditions, savings in the case of sea transport that would justify the use of an environmental bonus to promote the sea option.     

Development of a low-noise cooling fan for an alternator using numerical and doe methods

An alternator, which converts mechanical rotational energy into electrical energy, is an important component of a vehicle. Alternators operate over a broad range of rotational speeds, typically from 3,000 RPM to 18,000 RPM, which demands a cooling fan producing sufficient airflow, ideally with a minimum of noise. In the current study, an optimized alternator-cooling fan was developed through a linked DOE(Design OF Experiment) process and numerical analysis. The SC/Tetra and FlowNoise S/W programs were used to calculate flow rates and noise levels, respectively, for the newly developed fan. Compared with original model, the numerical results predicted a 3 dBA noise reduction; the measured reduction was 4 dBA.     

Development of a navigation algorithm with dead reckoning for unmanned ground vehicles

A navigation algorithm is indispensable for Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs). During driving, UGVs follow a global path. In this study, we propose a navigation algorithm using Real Time Kinematic (RTK)-Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) units and encoders to complement global path planning. Sometimes GPS systems lose their signals and receive inaccurate position data due to many factors, such as edifice and barrier obstructions. This paper shows that GPS deviations can be solved using a Dead Reckoning (DR) navigation method with encoders and that position errors can be decreased through the use of RTK-DGPS units. In addition to this method, we will introduce a new waypoint update algorithm and a steering algorithm using RTK-DGPS units.     

Modified lateral control of an autonomous vehicle by look-ahead and look-down sensing

This paper presents a modified lateral control method for an autonomous vehicle with both look-ahead and look-down sensing systems. To cope with sensor noise and modeling uncertainty in the lateral control of the vehicle, a modified LMI-based H lateral controller was proposed, which uses the look-ahead information of the lateral offset error measured at the front of vehicle and the look-down information of the vehicle yaw angle error between the reference lane and the centerline of the vehicle. To verify the safety and the performance of the lateral control, a scaled-down vehicle was developed, and the positioning of the vehicle was estimated with USAT. The proposed controller, which uses both look-ahead and look-down information, was tested for lane changing and reference lane tracking with both simulation and experiment. The simulation and experimental results show that the proposed controller has better tracking and handling performance compared with a controller that uses only the look-ahead information of the target heading angle error.