Applying measures of modelling quality to a national time series: a benchmark for transport demand models

ABSTRACT

In current urban planning practice, macroscopic transport demand and assignment models are essential for the evaluation of mid- and long-term land use developments and infrastructure investments. The credibility of their projections strongly depends on their ability to reproduce present day traffic volumes. Obviously, a simplified model of reality will display some shortcomings, and the effect of these is asserted by quality measures that quantify the divergence from observed traffic volumes. There is, however, only rough guidance regarding acceptable ranges of these measures. Most of the literature on this subject approach these ranges from below, by discussing measures attained by operational models and using these as a benchmark, or by using the adverse effects of modelling errors to derive a minimum quality level. On the contrary, this study suggests upper limits for quality measures by analysing year-on-year variations in traffic volumes that result from changing land use and infrastructure.     

Developing an activity-based trip generation model for small/medium size planning agencies

The primary shortcoming of traditional four-step models is that they cannot capture derived travel demand behaviors. However, travel demand modeling (TDM) is an essential input for urban transportation planning. TDM needs to be highly precise and accurate by integrating the accurate base year estimation along with suitable alternatives. Currently, activity-based models (ABMs) have been developed mostly for large metropolitan planning organizations (MPO), whereas smaller/medium-sized MPOs typically lack these models. The main reason for this disparity in ABM development is the complexity of the models and the cost and data requirements needed. We posit however that smaller MPOs could develop ABMs from traditional travel surveys. Therefore, the specific aim of this paper is to develop a probabilistic home-based destination activity trip generation model considering travel time behavior. Results show that the developed model can significantly capture the actual number of trip generations.     

Measuring the benefits derived from a transportation investment

This paper reviews the problems associated with application of the concept of consumers' surplus to the measurement of benefits derived from a transportation investment. This review is warranted since such measurement is very complicated when alternative modes or different paths are available to the users and benefit measures have been proposed which, on the surface, appear not to agree. In particular, as Mohring (1976), Williams (1976) and Agnello (1977), among others, have discussed, demand curves for interdependent modes will shift in response to a modal specific improvement, i.e. a unimodal investment, thereby complicating the measurement of consumers' surplus. The perspective taken in this paper resolves seeming inconsistencies in the literature regarding the directions of demand shifts and the correct measure to be used in calculating changes in consumer's surplus following an investment. This is accomplished by introducing an aggregate, origin-destination demand curve which is independent of the alternative modes actually available and from which traditional modal demands can be derived. An approach for deriving the modal demands from the aggregate demand and the behavioral assumptions behind the aggregate supply is described; the aggregate demand is used to unequivocably determine the directions of shifts in the modal demand curves due to specific modal investments. The resulting consistency of modal and aggregate demand is shown to lead to an unambiguous measure of total consumers' surplus variation. Extensions to include producers' surplus are also given.     

A model for allocating car parking spaces in universities

In this paper a linear programming model has been presented for determining the optimum allocation of existing car parking facilities for different classes of users within a closed community, of which a university is a typical example.     

Revisiting the notion of induced traffic through a matched-pairs study

In investigating the question of the existence of "induced demand" in connection with highway expansion projects, Hansen et al. (1993) studied eighteen California state highway segments whose capacities had been improved in the early 1970s. For the present study, these segments were paired with control segments that matched the improved segments to unimproved ones with regard to facility type, region, approximate size, and initial volumes and congestion levels. Taking annual data for average daily traffic (ADT) and design-hour-traffic-to-capacity (DTC) ratios during the 21 years 1976–1996, three approaches were used to compare growth rates between the improved and unimproved segments: overall growth comparisons for the matched pairs, repeated measures analysis, and analysis of matched mean profiles. We found the growth rates between the two types of segments to be statistically and practically indistinguishable, suggesting that the capacity expansions, in and of themselves, had a negligible effect on traffic growth over the period studied. Reasons for the differences between these results and those of aggregate cross-sectional models finding a significant induced demand effect are discussed. Our analyses suggest that the aggregate models may overestimate induced traffic due to the attribution of at least a fraction of the observed traffic growth to "induced demand" rather than to some of the confounding factors which were not controlled for in such studies. At the same time, it is noted that the traffic induced by capacity expansion may in certain circumstances be larger than that observed in the present study, with the effect of new highway construction on traffic growth being a prime candidate for scrutiny in this regard. The results of this study nonetheless suggest that, for existing facilities, the size of the induced-traffic effect that can be attributed to capacity enhancements may be sufficiently small that its detection in a case-control study would be difficult, if not impossible, without a substantially larger sample size.     

Map-matching poor-quality GPS data in urban environments: the pgMapMatch package

Global Positioning System (GPS) data have become ubiquitous in many areas of transportation planning and research. The usefulness of GPS data often depends on the points being matched to the true sequence of edges on the underlying street network – a process known as ‘map matching.’ This paper presents a new map-matching algorithm that is designed for use with poor-quality GPS traces in urban environments, where drivers may circle for parking and GPS quality may be affected by underground parking and tall buildings. The paper is accompanied by open-source Python code that is designed to work with a PostGIS spatial database. In a test dataset that includes many poor-quality traces, our new algorithm accurately matches about one-third more traces than a widely available alternative. Our algorithm also provides a ‘match score’ that evaluates the likelihood that the match for an individual trace is correct, reducing the need for manual inspection.     

Impact of family in-home quality time on person travel demand

This paper introduces the concept of Primary Family Priority Time (PFPT), which represents a high priority household decision to spend time together for in-home activities. PFPT is incorporated into a fully specified and operational activity based discrete choice model system for Copenhagen, called COMPAS, using the DaySim software platform. Structural tests and estimation results identify two important findings. First, PFPT has a place high in the model hierarchy, and second, strong interactions exist between PFPT and the other day level activity components of the model system. Forecasts are generated for a road pricing and congestion scenario by COMPAS and a comparison version of the model system that excludes PFPT. COMPAS with PFPT exhibits less mode changing and time-of-day shifting in response to pricing and congestion than the comparison version.     

Travel mode choice and travel satisfaction: bridging the gap between decision utility and experienced utility

Over the past decades research on travel mode choice has evolved from work that is informed by utility theory, examining the effects of objective determinants, to studies incorporating more subjective variables such as habits and attitudes. Recently, the way people perceive their travel has been analyzed with transportation-oriented scales of subjective well-being, and particularly the satisfaction with travel scale. However, studies analyzing the link between travel mode choice (i.e., decision utility) and travel satisfaction (i.e., experienced utility) are limited. In this paper we will focus on the relation between mode choice and travel satisfaction for leisure trips (with travel-related attitudes and the built environment as explanatory variables) of study participants in urban and suburban neighborhoods in the city of Ghent, Belgium. It is shown that the built environment and travel-related attitudes—both important explanatory variables of travel mode choice—and mode choice itself affect travel satisfaction. Public transit users perceive their travel most negatively, while active travel results in the highest levels of travel satisfaction. Surprisingly, suburban dwellers perceive their travel more positively than urban dwellers, for all travel modes.