Second best toll and capacity optimisation in networks: solution algorithm and policy implications

This paper looks at the first and second best jointly optimal toll and road capacity investment problems from both policy and technical oriented perspectives. On the technical side, the paper investigates the applicability of the constraint cutting algorithm for solving the second best problem under elastic demand which is formulated as a bilevel programming problem. The approach is shown to perform well despite several problems encountered by our previous work in Shepherd and Sumalee (Netw. Spat. Econ., 4(2): 161–179, 2004). The paper then applies the algorithm to a small sized network to investigate the policy implications of the first and second best cases. This policy analysis demonstrates that the joint first best structure is to invest in the most direct routes while reducing capacities elsewhere. Whilst unrealistic this acts as a useful benchmark. The results also show that certain second best policies can achieve a high proportion of the first best benefits while in general generating a revenue surplus. We also show that unless costs of capacity are known to be low then second best tolls will be affected and so should be analysed in conjunction with investments in the network.

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

Regulation of the informal transport sector in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: welfare impacts and policy analysis

In Brazil, the explosion of informal transport activity during the past decade has had profound effects on formal public transport systems and is a source of great controversy in the urban transportation sector. A variety of policies have been proposed to manage the growth of the sector. This study seeks to understand how proposed policies will impact the users of these systems. A corridor in Rio de Janeiro with substantial informal activity was used as a case study. Measures of welfare changes in a discrete choice framework were used to estimate proposed policies’ impacts on users. Eleven candidate policies were evaluated, ranging from the eradication of the informal modes and investment in formal modes, to the legalization of the informal modes. Benefits were compared with costs and the distribution of benefits across income classes was explored. Net benefits from some policies were found to be substantial. Legalizing the informal sector was found to benefit users slightly but further investments in the sector are probably inefficient. Users benefited most from improvements in formal mass transit modes, at roughly 100–200 dollars per commuter per year. Finally, policies to foster a competitive environment for the delivery of both informal and formal services were shown to benefit users about 100 dollars per commuter per year. Together, the regulation of the informal sector and investments in the formal sector serve to reinforce the movement towards competitive concessions for services and help reduce the impacts of cartelization and costly in-road competition.

齐岳山隧道施工中物探与钻探的应用比较研究

在岩溶山区隧道工程的施工过程中,地质超前预报是重要的施工工序,以宜万铁路齐岳山隧道为例,研究了基于地震波理论的TSP203探测设备的应用方法和目前在国内外水平钻探领域功能最完善的RPD-150多功能地质钻机的应用方法;分析比较了地球物理探测和地质钻探方法在隧道地质超前预报中的特点,提出了岩溶山区隧道地质超前预报技术方法的应用原则.研究结果表明:TSP203地质预报系统探测、解译距离远,分辨率高,系统智能化程度高,数据记录基本采用自动记录系统,试验过程简单,对施工影响较小,但是整个系统数据记录与分析比较单一、公式化;RPD-150C多功能钻机系统具有探测准确、探测结果受外界影响小等优点,但是数据分析往往不能对有些数据和图形进行量化,只能作出定性的分析.从而得出结论,RPD-150C多功能钻机系统与TSP203地质预报系统有很大的互补性,综合两种手段,可以及时预测预报到大部分地质不良地段,为隧道工程的施工奠定基础.     

船用进口配套设备厂商技术支持行为的分析

船用配套进口设备厂商的技术支持行为直接影响到设备配套的质量和技术保证。本文对各种不同配套进口设备厂商、代理商的性质和行为进行了剖析,提出了相应的对策和操作方法。     

加快长江船型标准化探讨

1历史沿革20世纪70年代以前长江搞托拉斯,长江干线运输是独家经营,支流小船基本上没有搞船型标准化。长江的船型标准化工作,始于20世纪50年代中期,先从干线客货轮、拖轮、驳船开始。长江干线客货轮主要有行驶汉申线的东方红11型(客位1400～1500个),行驶汉渝线的江蓉型(客位700个),2640匹马力的推轮,1500吨级甲板驳,800吨级装载件杂货的舱口驳,长江水系分节驳船型尺度系列等。70年代末从美国引进了先进的6000匹马力推轮和与其配套2000吨级有盖舱口驳,推轮船队总吨位达3万t。这些密西西比河的先进船型,在长江投入营运后,效果较好。加以长江葛…     

Fault diagnosis for singular stochastic systems

This paper studies the fault diagnosis of singular stochastic systems. The probability distribution of output is measured by probability density functions (PDFs), which are modeled by a square root B-spline expansion. An adaptive nonlinear observer is proposed to estimate the size of the fault occurring in systems. Furthermore, the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is applied to establish sufficient conditions for the existence of the observer. Finally, the simulation results are given to indicate the method for diagnosing the fault.     

Vocational and academic approaches to maritime education and training (MET): Trends,challenges and opportunities

Traditional seafarer training has always focused on the acquisition and use of practical skills. The prevailing view is that, while this approach addresses a degree of cognitive skills, it focuses on and gives much more emphasis to the acquisition of hands-on practical skills for the performance of specific tasks. On the other hand, academic education has been seen to be much more focused on the development of in-depth analytical and critical thinking skills; cognitive skills that are less reliant on hands-on task-oriented training, but stress critical reading and discussion. The global trend in maritime education and training is increasingly to link an essentially vocational education that provides specific and restricted competence outcomes with more general or deeper academic components leading to an academic qualification. This trend has led to some dilemmas for curriculum development, for training legislation in a global industry, and for achieving desired learning outcomes in a professional setting (in the shipping industry). This paper discusses some of the challenges arising from this trend and the opportunities the trend offers.     

Rapid first-stage tests of on-ship infection

Protection against on-ship infectious disease—whether due to mishap or to harmful purpose—faces special situational problems. Sometimes, when infection levels on board have reached threshold levels, emergency actions are required. Often, the most thorough strategies for responding to threat are not feasible. A rapid first-stage test (RFT) is a fast, minimally invasive procedure used to rule out from possible infection a large percentage of an infection-threatened group. Prevention and control of on-ship infection need to combine various interconnected tactics. When timely criterion tests are not possible, the medical team must adopt fast alternative measures. The methods used to summarize protection against on-ship infectious agents included a scientific literature review and a web search. The fields of the review were maritime, health, and technology sources. Special attention was paid to material dealing with risks and threats of on-ship penetration by infectious agents, on-ship infection prevalence thresholds, and rapid diagnostic screens. The Bayes rule and the law of large numbers were applied to the analysis, for large on-ship populations, of RFT indications of crossing of an infection prevalence threshold. The increasing risk of serious on-ship infection—either accidental or purposeful—calls for a multi-layered protection approach. RFTs are a key part of the outer layer of such a defense. Well-designed and well-administered RFTs provide several advantages for defense against on-ship infection: low-cost, non-invasive, fast, and focuses on a drastically smaller number of infection possibilities.