文化体制变革与文化产业增长

文化体制变革与文化产业增长反映的是在特定的中国社会转型时期文化制度变迁与文化经济发展的互动关系。传统文化体制之所以阻隔了文化产业的成长,是因为过度依赖行政权力对文化发展的作用,从而遏制了文化市场的产生。三十多年来的文化制度变迁是沿着有限放松管制和体制内优先的路径展开的,对文化产业的发展起到了积极的推动作用。当下文化产业增长遇到了许多制约因素,主要制约因素还是来自制度方面;在技术创新增长路径和制度变革增长路径的选择上,最终必须依靠制度创新才能驱动文化产业的持续增长。     

Sharing piping CAD models of ocean plants based on international standards

In the shipbuilding industry, different computer-aided design (CAD) systems are used for different design domains, structure, and outfitting. We need to exchange data among different CAD systems such as Tribon, AutoCAD, Intergraph or PDMS to complete the whole design and production process. There are two approaches to data exchange. One is direct translation; the other is indirect translation, which is based on a neutral format. If we use a neutral format, the data specification is open to the public and the design model can be used by other CAD systems, including next-generation CAD systems. In this paper, we propose an indirect method that uses ISO 10303 (STandard for the Exchange of Product model data) AP227 and ISO 15926 to define neutral formats. A separate ShapeDB is constructed to manage the geometry information, referenced to the catalogue data defined by ISO 15926. An experimental implementation for data exchange between Tribon and PDMS is described.     

Predictions of porpoising inception for planing vessels

The inception of porpoising is theoretically predicted for planing vessels. Two different approaches are presented. First, a linear stability analysis is applied to find the porpoising limits while the hydrodynamic coefficients, i.e. added mass and damping coefficients, are determined by either a simplified method or a numerical method. Another approach is to seek the porpoising limits by performing nonlinear time domain simulations. Either the simplified method or the numerical method is used in the simulations. In the numerical method, a 2D+t theory together with a boundary element method is employed. The trim angle limits for porpoising are determined by changing the longitudinal position of the centre of gravity (COG) of the vessel and keeping the forward speed constant. The predicted porpoising limits are compared with Day and Haag’s (Planing boat porpoising, Thesis, Webb Institute of Naval Architecture, 1952) experimental results. The influences of parameters such as the load coefficient, the vertical position of COG and the radius of gyration of the ship are investigated by varying those parameters in the linear stability analysis. In the nonlinear time-domain simulations, by trying different longitudinal position of COG, one can find the critical trim angle when the porpoising commences. The obtained trim limits agree generally with those predicted by the linear stability analysis. Bounded oscillations for the unstable cases near the critical trim angle can be seen in the time-domain simulations due to the nonlinear effects.     

A finite element model for flexible pipe armor wire instability

The constructive disposition of metallic and plastic layers confers flexible pipes with high and low axial stiffness respectively when tensile and compressive loads are applied. Under certain conditions typically found during deepwater installation or operation, flexible pipes may be subjected to high axial compression, sometimes accompanied by bending. If not properly designed, the structure may not be able to withstand this loading and fails. From practical experience observed offshore and in laboratory tests two principal mechanisms, which will be discussed in this paper, have been identified regarding the configuration of the armor wires. When the pipe fails by compression the armor wires may exhibit localized lateral or radial deflections, consequently permanent damage is observed in the armor wires with a sudden reduction of the structure’s axial stiffness. The pressure armor may also unlock, thus causing potential fluid leakage.In this work a finite element model is developed to estimate the critical instability load and failure modes. An axi-symmetric model is constructed employing a complex combination of beam and spring elements. For each armor layer only one wire needs to be modeled, hence the computational cost is minimized without compromising the phenomenon characterization. A parametric case study is performed for a typical flexible pipe structure, where the friction coefficient between the wire armors and the external pressure are varied, and the critical instability loads and failure modes are obtained and results are discussed.     

European advanced driver training programs: Reasons for optimism

Post license advanced driver training programs in the US and early programs in Europe have often failed to accomplish their stated objectives because, it is suspected, that drivers gain self perceived driving skills that exceed their true skills—leading to increased post training crashes. The consensus from the evaluation of countless advanced driver training programs is that these programs are a detriment to safety, especially for novice, young, male drivers.Some European countries including Sweden, Finland, Austria, Luxembourg, and Norway, have continued to refine these programs, with an entirely new training philosophy emerging around 1990. These ‘post-renewal’ programs have shown considerable promise, despite various data quality and availability concerns. These programs share in common a focus on teaching drivers about self assessment and anticipation of risk, as opposed to teaching drivers how to master driving at the limits of tire adhesion. The programs focus on factors such as self actualization and driving discipline, rather than low level mastery of skills. Drivers are meant to depart these renewed programs with a more realistic assessment of their driving abilities. These renewed programs require considerable specialized and costly infrastructure including dedicated driver training facilities with driving modules engineered specifically for advanced driver training and highly structured curriculums. They are conspicuously missing from both the US road safety toolbox and academic literature. Given the considerable road safety concerns associated with US novice male drivers in particular, these programs warrant further attention.This paper reviews the predominant features and empirical evidence surrounding post licensing advanced driver training programs focused on novice drivers. A clear articulation of differences between the renewed and current US advanced driver training programs is provided. While the individual quantitative evaluations range from marginally to significantly effective in reducing novice driver crash risk, they have been criticized for evaluation deficiencies ranging from small sample sizes to confounding variables to lack of exposure metrics. Collectively, however, the programs sited in the paper suggest at least a marginally positive effect that needs to be validated with further studies. If additional well controlled studies can validate these programs, a pilot program in the US should be considered.     

通过形状差异修正模式方法进行的损伤识别试验(英文)

An experimental program was undertaken to test the feasibility to detect the occurrence of structural damage using a modified mode shape difference technique. The vibration response of a steel beam fixed at one end and hinged at the other was obtained for the intact and damage conditions. Modal analysis was performed to extract the frequencies and mode shapes. The method shows a good potential in detection of occurrence and location of damage.     

Estimating a model of dynamic activity generation based on one-day observations: Method and results

In this paper we develop and explore an approach to estimate dynamic models of activity generation on one-day travel-diary data. Dynamic models predict multi-day activity patterns of individuals taking into account dynamic needs as well as day-varying preferences and time-budgets. We formulate an ordered-logit model of dynamic activity-agenda-formation decisions and show how one-day observation probabilities can be derived from the model as a function of the model’s parameters and, with that, how parameters can be estimated using standard loglikelihood estimation. A scale parameter cannot be identified because information on within-person variability is lacking in one-day data. An application of the method to data from a national travel survey illustrates the method. A test on simulated data indicates that, given a pre-set scale, the parameters can be identified and that estimates are robust for a source of heterogeneity not captured in the model. This result indicates that dynamic activity-based models of the kind considered here can be estimated from data that are less costly to collect and that support the large sample sizes typically required for travel-demand modeling. We conclude therefore that the proposed approach opens up a way to develop large-scale dynamic activity-based models of travel demand.     

A random utility maximization (RUM) based dynamic activity scheduling model: Application in weekend activity scheduling

The paper presents a modeling framework for dynamic activity scheduling. The modeling framework considers random utility maximization (RUM) assumption for its components in order to capture the joint activity type, location and continuous time expenditure choice tradeoffs over the course of the day. The dynamics of activity scheduling process are modeled by considering the history of activity participation as well as changes in time budget availability over the day. For empirical application, the model is estimated for weekend activity scheduling using a dataset (CHASE) collected in Toronto in 2002–2003. The data set classifies activities into nine general categories. For the empirical model of a 24-h weekend activity scheduling, only activity type and time expenditure choices are considered. The estimated empirical model captures many behavioral details and gives a high degree of fit to the observed weekend scheduling patterns. Some examples of such behavioral details are the effects of time of the day on activity type choice for scheduling and on the corresponding time expenditure; the effects of travel time requirements on activity type choice for scheduling and on the corresponding time expenditure, etc. Among many other findings, the empirical model reveals that on the weekend the utility of scheduling Recreational activities for later in the day and over a longer duration of time is high. It also reveals that on the weekend, Social activity scheduling is not affected by travel time requirements, but longer travel time requirements typically lead to longer-duration social activities.