The validation of a microscopic simulation model: a methodological case study

The use of microscopic simulation models to assess the likely effects of new traffic management applications and changes in vehicle technology is becoming increasingly popular. However the validity of the models is a topic of increasing concern, as the quality of the presentation often exceeds the models ability to predict what is likely to happen.Traditionally, model validity has been ascertained through comparing outputs aggregated at a macroscopic level such as speed flow and lane use, against real data. Little microscopic comparison is generally possible and, where this is done there is often no separation of the calibration and validation process. This paper demonstrates how microscopic validation may be undertaken when suitable data is available, in this case time series data collected by an instrumented vehicle, and its use in the validation of the car following performance of a fuzzy logic based car following model. Good agreement has been attained between the simulated model and observed data, primarily using a root mean square error indicator. Lastly, a brief comparison of the new model with the performance of a number of existing formulations has also been undertaken.     

The missing link: bicycle infrastructure networks and ridership in 74 US cities

Cities promote strong bicycle networks to support and encourage bicycle commuting. However, the application of network science to bicycle facilities is not very well studied. Previous work has found relationships between the amount of bicycle infrastructure in a city and aggregate bicycle ridership, and between microscopic network structure and individual tripmaking patterns. This study fills the missing link between these two bodies of literature by developing a standard methodology for measuring bicycle facility network quality at the macroscopic level and testing its association with bicycle commuting. Bicycle infrastructure maps were collected for 74 Unites States cities and systematically analyzed to evaluate their network structure. Linear regression models revealed that connectivity and directness are important factors in predicting bicycle commuting after controlling for demographic variables and the size of the city. These findings provide a framework for transportation planners and policymakers to evaluate their local bicycle facility networks and set regional priorities that support nonmotorized travel behavior, and for continued research on the structure and quality of bicycle infrastructure and behavior.     

What is the relationship between online activity and driving-licence-holding amongst young adults?

There is growing interest amongst both practitioners and researchers in the correlates of young adults’ driving-licence-acquisition. One aspect of the ongoing scholarly debate is whether taking part in online (i.e. virtual) activities may be associated with young adults feeling less need to drive and hence to acquire a driving licence. This paper addresses this issue by drawing on analysis of two distinct datasets. Both contain rich pseudo-diary instruments in which people indicate detailed characteristics of their unique online-activity profile. This includes both indicators of the types of online activities in which respondents participate, and a separate metric of internet-use intensity. The latter is defined in one dataset as the amount of time/week spent online, and in the other dataset the frequency of their internet use. On the basis of a set of multivariate regression analyses, a positive (i.e. complementary) cross-sectional relationship between young adults’ online activity and licence-holding was found. We find that young adults who use the internet are, net of confounding effects, more likely to hold a driving licence than otherwise identical young adults who do not use the internet. Both datasets show this type of effect, and it is robust across a range of model specifications, including multi-stage estimations to address cross-correlation between indicators of internet usage. In addition to the positive net statistical association, we also report several other noteworthy effects. Of the six effects associated with online-activity types that are directly comparable between the two datasets, we find that the correlation in the parameter estimates across the two datasets is 0.63. This suggests similar types of relationships across the two datasets. Also, in several (but not all) of our analyses we found an inverted ‘U’ shaped ceteris paribus relationship between intensity-of-internet-use and licence-holding. The positive net statistical association between internet use and licence-holding is a different relationship than previously reported in the literature, and therefore further research is needed to reconcile the differences (which are likely due at least in part to different methodological approaches and data resources). Further research is also needed to continue to resolve between the relative saliency of other hypothesised determinants of licence-holding (e.g. economic and socio-demographic explanators, as well as licence-acquisition regimes that vary by time and place).     

Agent-based model for continuous activity planning with an open planning horizon

The paper proposes the microscopic travel demand model continuous target-based activity planning (C-TAP) that generates multi-week schedules by means of a continuous planning approach with an open planning horizon. C-TAP introduces behavioral targets to describe people’s motivation to perform activities, and it uses a planning heuristic to make on-the-fly decisions about upcoming activities. The planning heuristic bases its decisions on three aspects: a discomfort index derived from deviations from agents’ past performance with regard to their behavioral targets; the effectiveness of the immediate execution; and activity execution options available in the near future. The paper reports the results of a test scenario based on an existing 6-week continuous travel diary and validates C-TAP by comparing simulation results with observed behavioral patterns along several dimensions (weekday similarities, weekday execution probabilities of activities, transition probabilities between activities, duration distributions of activities, frequency distributions of activities, execution interval distributions of activities and weekly travel probability distributions). The results show that C-TAP has the capability to reproduce observed behavior and the flexibility to introduces new behavioral patterns.     

Tollroads are only part of the overall trip: the error of our ways in past willingness to pay studies

With rare exception, actual tollroad traffic in many countries has failed to reproduce forecast traffic levels, regardless of whether the assessment is made after an initial year of operation or as long as 10 years after opening. Pundits have offered many reasons for this divergence, including optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, the promise to equity investors of early returns on investment, errors in land use forecasts, and specific assumptions underlying the traffic assignment models used to develop traffic forecasts. One such assumption is the selection of a behaviourally meaningful value of travel time savings (VTTS) for use in a generalised cost or generalised time user benefit expression that is the main behavioural feature of the traffic assignment (route choice) model. Numerous empirical studies using stated choice experiments have designed choice sets of alternatives as if users choose a tolled route or a free route under the (implied) assumption that the tolled route is tolled for the entire trip. Reality is often very different, with a high incidence of use of a non-tolled road leading into and connecting out of a tolled link. In this paper we recognise this feature of route choice and redesign the stated choice experiment to account for it. Furthermore, this study is a follow up to a previous study undertaken before a new toll road was in place, and it benefits from real exposure to the new toll road. We find that the VTTS is noticeably reduced, and if the VTTS is a significant contributing influence on errors on traffic forecasts, then the lower estimates make sense behaviourally.     

Review on the interlimb neural coupling and its potential usage in walking rehabilitation

Human performs bipedal gait with synchronized arm swing. Apart from the observation that arm movement during gait is the outcome of a mechanical and energetic optimization, the synergetic upper and lower limb movement during gait is a neutrally coordinated motor output, that is, the interlimb movement is neutrally coupled. Patients with injuries to the central nervous system demonstrate the interlimb neural coupling. Researches on central pattern generator and the reflex studies reveal that the interlimb neural coupling is a quadrupedal heritage. Based on the theory of the interlimb neural coupling, both the upper and lower limbs should be practiced synchronously during regular gait training to promote walking rehabilitation for patients with gait disorders. Frther development of a gait robotic system with synchronized arm swing is required to test the clinical application of the neural coupling in gait restoration.     

Robust and real-time guidewire simulation based on Kirchhoff elastic rod for vascular intervention training

Virtual reality （VR） based vascular intervention training is a fascinating innovation, which helps trainees develop skills in safety remote from patients. The vascular intervention training involves the use of flexible tipped guidewires to advance diagnostic or therapeutic catheters into a patient＇s vascular anatomy. In this paper, a real-time physically-based modeling approach is proposed to simulate complicated behaviors of guidewires and catheters based on Kirchhoff elastic rod. The slender body of guidewire and catheter is simulated using more efficient special case of naturally straight, isotropic Kirchhoff rods, and the short flexible tip composed of straight or angled design is modeled using more complex generalized Kirchhoff rods. We derive the equations of motion for guidewire and catheter with continuous elastic energy~ and then they were discretized using a linear implicit scheme that guarantees stability and robustness. In addition, we apply a fast-projection method to enforce the inextensibility of guidewire and catheter, while an adaptive sampling algorithm is implemented to improve the simulation efficiency without reducing accuracy. Experimental results reveal that our guidewire simulation method is both robust and efficient in a real-time performance.     

城市交通干线协调控制

城市干线协调控制是智能交通研究的重要环节。由于城市交通具有随机性和时变性的特点,因此,很难建立准确的科学模型,针对这一问题采用模糊控制的方式进行推理分析。以各交叉口、各相位方向的平均排队长度为控制优劣的评价参数,把三个相邻交叉口作为城市干线控制模型。在主次干道车流相差较大时进行仿真,相比于传统的基于相位差的协调控制,数据显示:采用模糊控制方式对干线进行协调控制,能够有效地减少交叉口的平均延误。     

Efficiency sensitivity analysis of a hydrostatic transmission for an off-road multiple axle vehicle

There is a large variety of multiple driven axle vehicles. Some of the most common are the 3-axle rigid vehicles and the 4-axle articulated vehicles, which can in some cases have different steering mechanisms, adaptive suspension, etc. This last kind of vehicles usually have very complex transmission configurations. Moreover, the required torques in each of the wheels can be very different, especially when the vehicle is working in rough terrains. The aim of this work is to study and model the driveline of this kind of vehicles, when using a hydrostatic transmission, from the performance and efficiency point of view, by analysing the influence of the operating conditions in the transmission efficiency. A global model is used to quantify the power flow in each of the transmission elements and the overall performance of the entire vehicle driveline, given the operating conditions thereof. A sensitivity analysis has also been done showing the influence of vehicle speed, rolling resistance, terrain slope and hydraulic motors displacement in the overall transmission efficiency. The interest of this work is also to make a contribution to the literature in the field of global modelling of drivelines under variable operating conditions and its application to ATVs. One important aspect is the influence of different actuation requirements that occur in different wheels at the same time. The results show that the overall performance of the transmission is highly dependent on operating conditions, on the selected transmission configuration and on the used components.     

Emerging organizational values in shipping: Part 4. Decentralization—the redefinition of authority in shipping company organization

Decentralization is a major theme of organizational change in shipping. It is often seen as ‘putting power back aboard ship’. However, the authors argue that this view is too simple. Decentralization poses fundamental questions about the entire management structure of the shipping company. The redistribution of authority necessary for decentralization is discussed in terms of the company organization structure.