Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.     

Study of in-vehicle route guidance systems for improvement of right-side drivers in the Japanese traffic system

A country can adopt one of two standards for traffic flow — cars may travel on the left or right side of the road. When drivers who are accustomed to driving on the right side of the road drive on the left side, and vice versa, the mental workload is likely increased due to the driver’s unfamiliarity with a new language, the position of the driver’s seat, different driving directions, and other factors that differ from those of their home country. One method of doing this is to make sure that the in-vehicle route guidance information (RGI) is not overly complicated — thereby assisting drivers in improving their safety. Consequently, the aim of this study was to facilitate mobility and improve safety for natural right-side drivers driving temporarily in left-side traffic. In this study, driver behavior and workload — given various types of RGI — were evaluated in a driving simulator with a variety of prescribable test conditions. This research was composed of two experiments. In the first, various types of in-vehicle route guidance systems were tested and evaluated in terms of their characteristics and associated driver behaviors (while driving). In the second experiment, systemic factors and effectiveness were evaluated by two combined systems, arrow and map-type information, based on the results of the first experiment. In light of both experiments, the various types of route guidance systems were discussed in terms of their results. A navigation system was proposed to alleviate some of the secondary tasks such as route selection.     

An investigation of the performance of an electronic in-line pump system for diesel engines

WIT Electronic Fuel System Co., Ltd. has developed a new fuel injector, the Electronic In-line Pump （EIP） system, designed to meet China＇s diesel engine emission and fuel economy regulations. It can be used on marine diesel engines and commercial vehicle engines through different EIP systems. A numerical model of the EIP system was built in the AMESim environment for the purpose of creating a design tool for engine application and system optimization. The model was used to predict key injection characteristics under different operating conditions, such as injection pressure, injection rate, and injection duration. To validate these predictions, experimental tests were conducted under the conditions that were modeled. The results were quite encouraging and in agreement with model predictions. Additional experiments were conducted to study the injection characteristics of the EIP system. These results show that injection pressure and injection quantity are insensitive to injection timing variations, this is due to the design of the constant velocity cam profile. Finally, injection quantity and pressure vs. pulse width at different cam speeds are presented, an important injection characteristic for EIP system calibration.     

Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 718 for Automotive Engine Materials

This study was carried out to investigate the creep life at the high temperature of the Alloy 718 for automotive engine components using the initial strain parameter method (ISPM). Creep tests have performed at elevated temperatures in the range of 550 oC to 700 oC in this work. We also carried out constant stress creep tests. The initial strains were measured during 1 minute after loading. Both the creep stress and rupture time depend on the initial strain. We calculated the creep life of Alloy 718 by using the creep life prediction equations obtained from the ISPM. Then, we compared the creep life predicted by the ISPM to the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP). The experimental rupture time and the calculated rupture time by using the ISPM agreed with a confidence level of 95 %. The creep life predicted by using the ISPM was in very good agreement with the creep life predicted using the LMP method.     

Torque characteristics analysis for optimal design of a copper-layered eddy current brake system

An enhanced parametric model for a copper-layered eddy current electric machine (retarder) is introduced in this paper. The modeled torque characteristics of the copper-layered electromagnetic retarders are based on the results from a detailed electromagnetic finite element analysis (FEA) of these eddy current machines. The model uses a parameterized double-exponential function to model the steady state speed-torque characteristics of the retarder. The parameters are adjusted for optimal braking performance in conjunction with predicted speed-torque characteristics of a copper-layered retarder. A full vehicle model, along with the proposed retarder speed-torque model has been used to simulate a series braking events. The simulation results show that the peaks of the retarder speed-torque curves must be designed to occur within a specific range of speeds for optimal braking performance.     

Mathematical model validated by a crash test for studying the occupant’s kinematics and dynamics in a cars’ frontal collision

The aim of the paper was to determine the kinematic parameters that influence the occupant injury risk through a mathematical model. The developed model is a 2D model composed of 4 bodies (2 vehicles, thorax and head). The head and thorax are interconnected with a rotation joint and a torsion spring meant to stiffen the relative movement between the bodies. The thorax is connected with the vehicle body by a linear spring meant to simulate the seatbelt stiffness. The model was solved using Lagrange principle and the validation of the model was made through a crash test performed using the same initial conditions and comparing the obtained values of the displacement, velocity and acceleration parameters with the ones obtained with the mathematical model. The head and torso were chosen due to the fact that they are the common parts of the body that get injured, especially the head with the change of 80 % to cause fatal injury in car’s frontal collision. Once the model was validated, the stiffness of the seatbelt was modified in order to determine the behavior of the occupant in case of car frontal collisions. When the seatbelt stiffness was reduced, the occupant displacement and velocity increased, while by increasing the stiffness, these parameters decreased. The values of the developed model presented a high degree of similarity with the results obtained from the crash test with an error of 10 %. This model can be used by engineers to easily asses the occupant injury risk in case of vehicle frontal collisions.     

Flexural gravity wave generation by initial disturbances in the presence of current

The effect of uniform current on the generation of flexural gravity waves resulting from initial disturbances at a point was analyzed in two dimensions. The problem was formulated as an initial boundary value problem under the assumptions of the linearized theory of water waves. By direct application of the Laplace transform and then the Fourier transform, explicit expressions for the velocity potential and free surface elevation were obtained in integral forms; these were evaluated asymptotically for large distances and times by the application of the method of the stationary phase to obtain the far field behavior of the surface elevations in specific cases. Simple numerical computations were performed to illustrate the effect of uniform current on the surface elevation, wavelength, phase velocity, and group velocity of the flexural gravity waves and on the far field behavior of the progressive waves in two different cases, namely, when there is an initial depression concentrated at the origin and an initial impulse concentrated at the origin.     

Topological analysis of powertrains for refuse-collecting vehicles based on real routes–Part I: Hybrid hydraulic powertrain

In this two-part paper, a topological analysis of powertrains for refuse-collecting vehicles (RCVs) based on the simulation of different architectures (internal combustion engine, hybrid electric, and hybrid hydraulic) on real routes is proposed. In this first part, a characterization of a standard route is performed, analyzing the average power consumption and the most frequent working points of an internal combustion engine (ICE) in real routes. This information is used to define alternative powertrain architectures. A hybrid hydraulic powertrain architecture is proposed and modelled. The proposed powertrain model is executed using two different control algorithms, with and without predictive strategies, with data obtained from real routes. A calculation engine (an algorithm which runs the vehicle models on real routes), is presented and used for simulations. This calculation engine has been specifically designed to analyze if the different alternative powertrain delivers the same performance of the original ICE. Finally, the overall performance of the different architectures and control strategies are summarized into a fuel and energy consumption table, which will be used in the second part of this paper to compare with the different architectures based on hybrid electric powertrain. The overall performance of the different architectures indicates that the use of a hybrid hydraulic powertrain with simple control laws can reduce the fuel consumption up to a 14 %.     

Optimal scheduling of the flexray static segment based on two-dimensional bin-packing algorithm

FlexRay is a reliable and hard real-time in-vehicle communication protocol that is strongly promoted by car manufacturers as the de facto standard in the automotive domain. The protocol offers both a time-triggered and an eventtriggered architecture. This paper focuses on the optimal scheduling of the time-triggered component of FlexRay known as the static (ST) segment using a two-dimensional bin-packing technique. To maximize the bandwidth utilization in the ST segment, a fast heuristic as well as an efficient integer linear programming approach are proposed. Our methods directly schedule signals into slots including frame packing, according to signal-based data scheduling and the slot/ cycle multiplexing mechanisms presented by the latest version of the FlexRay protocol. The benefits of our proposed methods are demonstrated by extensive experiments on synthetic and an automotive X-by-wire system case study. An additional test case is examined to emphasize the superior performance of the proposed approach relative to that of existing optimal scheduling approaches.     

Devising business strategy for railways

This paper presents a case study which tackles a general problem for railway management, namely the formulation of a strategy to improve business financial performance. This is prefaced, in Section 2, by discussion of general principles - concerning the type of information system required, investigations to be conducted and associated measurement needs. The case study, of Section 3, concerns our investigations of VicRail's total business and its constituents. The task of financial improvement is revealed from an assessment of sectors' current cost-recovery positions and the identification of system joint costs. For freight sectors, future traffic prospects, pricing possibilities and the scope for more efficient operations are then considered, and the implications traced for overall deficit reduction and the development of business strategy. The concluding section draws some general lessons for railway managements.A fuller discussion by the authors of the theoretical framework employed, and particularly of the case study application, is contained in a complimentary publication: Improving Railway Financial Performance, published by Gower in January 1985.Transmark is a subsidiary of the British Railways Board, acting as its international consultancy. The authors, who were respectively study director and manager, wish to thank Bernard Warner (an independent consultant), Richard Eccles (of Transmark) and Adrian Balkyn-Rackowe (of British Rail) for their valuable contributions. The study report, titled Rail Cost — Pricing Options, was released by the Minister in April 1981.