A joint model for vehicle type and fuel type choice: evidence from a cross-nested logit study

In the face of growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions, there is increasing interest in forecasting the likely demand for alternative fuel vehicles. This paper presents an analysis carried out on stated preference survey data on California consumer responses to a joint vehicle type choice and fuel type choice experiment. Our study recognises the fact that this choice process potentially involves high correlations that an analyst may not be able to adequately represent in the modelled utility components. We further hypothesise that a cross-nested logit structure can capture more of the correlation patterns than the standard nested logit model structure in such a multi-dimensional choice process. Our empirical analysis and a brief forecasting exercise produce evidence to support these assertions. The implications of these findings extend beyond the context of the demand for alternative fuel vehicles to the analysis of multi-dimensional choice processes in general. Finally, an extension verifies that further gains can be made by using mixed GEV structures, allowing for random heterogeneity in addition to the flexible correlation structures.     

Passenger conveyor economics

Operating and capital costs for a high speed conveyor are estimated from cost data for low speed conveyors and from estimates for high speed designs. Unit costs are developed with reference to theoretical and practical conveyor capacities, and to the effect of traffic peaking on average utilization. User benefits are modelled as the change in consumers surplus arising from the introduction of a conveyor on a linear street as an alternative to walking. Cost and benefits vary widely depending on system design and location and on characteristics of travellers. Benefit measurements should reflect the effects on travel demand of a proposed installation, changes in value of time with changes in mode, and the effects of benefit “dilution” associated with limitations on access to the conveyor.     

Rail network accessibility and the demand for inter-urban rail travel

This paper reviews methods that have and can be used to forecast the effect of changes in accessibility to the rail network on the demand for inter-urban rail travel and of available evidence on rail accessibility elasticities. It reveals that relatively little research has been conducted in this area and that the forecasting procedures that could be used imply large variation in accessibility elasticities, which has not been empirically justified. Fresh empirical evidence on two related matters is reported. First, the neglected area of choice set composition is examined and the extent to which rail is considered to be a realistic alternative for inter-urban journeys and the contribution that accessibility to the rail network makes to this are analysed. Second, rail trip rate models are presented that not only contain estimates of accessibility elasticities and of the effects of a range of socio-economic variables on the demand for rail travel, but also that allow tests of the accessibility elasticity variation implied by many forecasting procedures to be conducted. It is found that this elasticity variation is not empirically supported. It is concluded that there is only limited scope for increasing rail demand through improvements in rail network accessibility.     

A competitive, charter air-service planning model for student athlete travel

This paper presents a model for planning an air charter service for pre-scheduled group travel. This model is used to investigate the competitiveness of such an enterprise for student athlete travel in conference sports. The relevant demand subset to be served by a limited charter fleet is identified through a comparison with existing scheduled travel options. Further, the routing and scheduling of the charter aircraft is performed within the same framework. Through this modeling a method for formulating and accommodating continuous time windows and competitive market dynamics in strategic planning for a charter service is developed. Computational improvements to the basic model are also presented and tested. The model is applied to the Big Sky Conference for the 2006-2007 season, quantifying the benefits to the students from such a service and the change in expenditure associated with such a benefit for various assumptions about operations and value of time. The findings indicate the lack of spatial or sport based patterns for maximizing benefit, indicating the absence of simplistic “rules of thumb” for operating such a service, and validating the need for the model.     

The undrained bearing capacity of a spudcan foundation under combined loading in soft clay

Mobile jack-up drilling rigs are typically supported by individual, large diameter spudcan foundations. Before deployment, the suitability of a jack-up to a location must be shown in a site-specific assessment under loads associated with a 50-year return period storm, which ultimately need to be resisted by the foundations. The capacity of the spudcans under combined vertical, horizontal and moment loading is therefore integral to the overall site-specific assessment of the jack-up.In soft clays, spudcans can penetrate deeply into the seabed, sometimes up to several footing diameters, with soil flowing around the downward penetrating footing, sealing the cavity. Although this is generally believed to provide some additional bearing capacity to the footing, no detailed study or formal guidance is available to date. This study, therefore, investigates the influence of soil back-flow on the failure mechanisms and quantifies the effect on the capacity of a spudcan under general loading through finite element analyses. A closed-form analytical expression is developed that describes the capacity envelope under combined loading, applicable to embedment depths ranging from shallow to deep.     

驾驶辅助系统(DAS):多种传感器数据的融合

最新的驾驶辅助系统(DAS)技术通过传感器数据融合,把来自不同信息源的传感器数据结合起来,形成更全面的有关道路状况的报告,从而让车辆和道路更安全。     

Travel time reliability: a review of late time valuations,elasticities and demand impacts in the passenger rail market in Great Britain

This paper provides an extensive review and reconciliation of British and European evidence relating to the value of, and demand responses to, rail reliability. In particular, we compare the elasticities implied by stated preference valuations of late time with directly estimated lateness elasticities. We find that the implied lateness elasticities are substantially greater than those directly estimated. A possible explanation for this is that lateness has been over-valued, but more sobering explanations would be to suggest that, whilst rail travellers dislike unreliability, they may be unwilling or unable to reduce their rail travel in response to experiences of poor performance, or else conventional economic approaches to deducing elasticities are not appropriate. The findings have been used to update the recommendations of the UK rail industry’s Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook.     

Transformations and continuities of issues related to Chinese participation in the global seafarers’ labour market

Since the 1990s, Chinese seafarers have become a force to be reckoned with in the global seafarer labour market, particularly against the backdrop of the manning crisis. Compared with other groups of seafarers dominating the market such as the Filipinos and the Indians, they are commonly associated with perceptions of low cost, poor English skills, different safety/work culture, problems with the International Transport Workers’ Federation, etc. This article identifies transformations and continuities of problems related to Chinese seafarers in the global market in the last two decades or so by reviewing relevant Lloyd’s List reports as well as official documents and previous research. The review shows that Chinese authorities have been taking various initiatives to take advantage of the manning crisis and to expand and promote seafarer education, supply and export, which in general serve to make seafarers better educated and improve their communication skills. Although such initiatives have helped increase seafaring labour export, the success is nevertheless limited by tight government control on recruitment, which makes some foreign managers reluctant to employ Chinese seafarers.     

Lightweight Occupancy Estimation on Freeways Using Extended Floating Car Data

Advanced traffic management systems rely heavily on technology to perform accurate estimations of the current state of the traffic as well as its short-term evolution. The objectives are improving traffic flow and enhancing road safety. Their success is based on accurate monitoring of two key variables, specifically speed and occupancy. The latter of the two has, to date, received significantly less attention from the scientific community. In this work we present a lightweight method to perform “on-line” occupancy estimation. We first propose three occupancy measurements calculated from data collected by a floating car: vehicle count, percentage of stop time, and headway. We then extend these discrete values to a continuous estimation of occupancy in space and time. The proposed estimators are based on a pairwise linear regression of each of the previously calculated measurements over certain references obtained from other floating cars or magnetic loop detectors. The method has been calibrated and validated under real traffic conditions and data. Despite the ease of implementation, the method is able to reproduce the occupancy values generated by the actual loop detectors, achieving promising results, with estimation errors down to 6.52%, even before multivehicle systems are considered.     

Optimal control of headway variation on transit routes

Headway control strategies have been proposed as methods for correcting transit service irregularities and thereby reducing passenger wait times at stops. This paper addresses a particular strategy which can be implemented on high frequency routes (headways under 10–12 minutes), in which buses are held at a control stop to a threshold headway. An algorithm is developed which yields the optimal control stop location and optimal threshold headway with respect to a system wait function. The specification of the wait function is based on the development of several empirical models, including a headway variation model and an average delay time model at control stops. A conclusion is reached that the headway variation does not increase linearly along a route, a common assumption made in many previous studies. Furthermore, the location of the optimal control stop and threshold value are sensitive to the passenger boarding profile, as expected. The algorithm itself appears to have practical application to conventional transit operations.