纵横乾坤是班轮（上）

2006年4月27日，由中国船东协会与中远集团共同主办的“航运市场与企业成长”论坛正式开幕。期间，美国联邦海事委员会主席史蒂文&;#183;布拉斯特先生，中国交通部水运司副司长张守国先生，中国钢铁工业协会副秘书长戚向东先生，英国克拉克森航运咨询公司董事总经理马丁&;#183;斯托普福德先生，美世管理顾问公司董事、合伙人曾伟民先生，中远散贷运输有限公司总经理张良先生，莱德系统公司副总裁兼中国区总经理克里斯托弗&;#183;伍德沃先生分别进行了精彩演讲，本文即为马丁&;#183;斯托普福德先生对国际集装箱班轮运输市场的展望。     

Geodemographic analysis and the identification of potential business partnerships enabled by transit smart cards

Smart card automated fare payment systems are being adopted by transit agencies around the world. The data-storage characteristics of smart cards present novel opportunities to enhance transit services. On the one hand, there are fare policies, where smart card holders are given specific rebates on the use of the service based on usage patterns or levels. On the other, there are non-fare policies, for instance if holders receive advantages, such as rebates and offers, from commercial partners. The purpose of this paper is to present a geodemographic framework to identify potential commercial partnerships that could exploit the characteristics of smart cards. The framework is demonstrated using data from Montreal, Canada. Household survey data, specifically trip ends, and business data points are jointly used to determine the exposure of various types of establishments to users of the Montreal Metro network. Spatial analysis of business establishments in the neighborhood of metro stations helps to identify potential commercial partners. The results illustrate the potential of geodemographic analysis to generate intelligence of commercial interest.     

Disaggregate simultaneous urban travel demand models: A brief introduction

This paper is intended to provide a general background to the two following papers, A Simultaneous Destination and Mode Choice Model for Shopping Trips and Some Estimation Results of a Simultaneous Model of Auto Ownership and Mode Choice to Work. Some of the deficiences of the conventional urban transport modelling system are reviewed and a case is made for the use of simultaneous models estimated with disaggregate data.     

Bridging the gap between complex data and decision-makers: an example of an innovative interactive tool

Abstract

The increasing capacity of technological tools, as well as the advent of geographic information systems, has multiplied the ability to process large sets of microdata. At the same time, modeling concerns and the quest for a more in-depth understanding of individual behaviors is requiring more, and better, data. The gap between scientific modeling and informational tools for decision-making seems to be widening.

In the Greater Montreal area, large sets of microdata have been available for more than 30 years. Along with the development of modeling and planning tools, particular attention has been given to the continuous enlightening of planners and decision-makers with respect to the outcomes of the various surveys. This has led to the development of particular interactive tools, specifically addressed at local planners, which present the most significant information regarding travel and demography, for geopolitically relevant areas.

This paper presents the most recent interactive tool that has been developed for local planners in the Montreal area. It integrates information from both the most recent travel survey held in the region and the Canadian census. It offers both ease of use and relevant analytical means to assist in exploring the complex relations between spatial locations, demographic features, and activity-travel indicators.     

The environmental effects of airline carbon emissions taxation in the US

This study investigates how air traffic emissions taxes may impact carbon emissions in the US. The magnitude of emissions savings in the US domestic airline industry that would result from lower demand for air travel as taxes are levied and air fares increase is estimated. At the same time, the air-automobile substitution effect is considered and it is argued that some air travelers may divert to automobiles, thus increasing automobile carbon emissions. Both the analysis of the aggregate US domestic airline industry and the study of a sample of US domestic route markets indicate that potentially sizeable increases in automobile traffic and related emissions may substantially reduce the environmental benefits of air travel carbon emissions taxes. In some instances, carbon emissions may even increase in short-haul markets. Sensitivity analyses are performed to demonstrate the robustness of these findings.     

Evidence of convective instability in congested traffic flow: A systematic empirical and theoretical investigation

An extended open system such as traffic flow is said to be convectively unstable if perturbations of the stationary state grow but propagate in only one direction, so they eventually leave the system. By means of data analysis, simulations, and analytical calculations, we give evidence that this concept is relevant for instabilities of congested traffic flow. We analyze detector data from several hundred traffic jams and propose estimates for the linear growth rate, the wavelength, the propagation velocity, and the severity of the associated bottleneck that can be evaluated semi-automatically. Scatter plots of these quantities reveal systematic dependencies. On the theoretical side, we derive, for a wide class of microscopic and macroscopic traffic models, analytical criteria for convective and absolute linear instabilities. Based on the relative positions of the stability limits in the fundamental diagram, we divide these models into five stability classes which uniquely determine the set of possible elementary spatiotemporal patterns in open systems with a bottleneck. Only two classes, both dominated by convective instabilities, are compatible with observations. By means of approximate solutions of convectively unstable systems with sustained localized noise, we show that the observed spatiotemporal phenomena can also be described analytically. The parameters of the analytical expressions can be inferred from observations, and also (analytically) derived from the model equations.     

Probabilistic model for destination inference and travel pattern mining from smart card data

Transportation - Inferring trip destination in smart card data with only tap-in control is an important application. Most existing methods estimate trip destinations based on the continuity of trip...