Three-phase traffic theory and two-phase models with a fundamental diagram in the light of empirical stylized facts

Despite the availability of large empirical data sets and the long history of traffic modeling, the theory of traffic congestion on freeways is still highly controversial. In this contribution, we compare Kerner’s three-phase traffic theory with the phase diagram approach for traffic models with a fundamental diagram. We discuss the inconsistent use of the term “traffic phase” and show that patterns demanded by three-phase traffic theory can be reproduced with simple two-phase models, if the model parameters are suitably specified and factors characteristic for real traffic flows are considered, such as effects of noise or heterogeneity or the actual freeway design (e.g. combinations of off- and on-ramps). Conversely, we demonstrate that models created to reproduce three-phase traffic theory create similar spatiotemporal traffic states and associated phase diagrams, no matter whether the parameters imply a fundamental diagram in equilibrium or non-unique flow-density relationships. In conclusion, there are different ways of reproducing the empirical stylized facts of spatiotemporal congestion patterns summarized in this contribution, and it appears possible to overcome the controversy by a more precise definition of the scientific terms and a more careful comparison of models and data, considering effects of the measurement process and the right level of detail in the traffic model used.     

Modeling isoexposure to transit users for market potential analysis

Transit operators face a difficult fiscal environment and an imperative to contribute to urban sustainability. Under these circumstances, operators must find innovative ways to make public transportation attractive to broader segments of the public, while simultaneously trying to raise revenue to reduce reliance on public subsidies. Development of commercial partnerships is seen as a promising way to achieve these goals. Previous research has examined the potential of using geodemographics to assist transit agencies in the task of identifying potential partners for developing mutually beneficial commercial agreements. In this paper we describe an approach to model isoexposure to transit users as a tool to assess market potential. The approach is based on the analysis of walking behavior of transit users, and specifically distance walked at the end of their transit trip. Spatial modeling is used to geographically project estimates of walking distance for a desired demographic profile at a specific transit facility. After expanding the estimates using sample weights, overlays of these estimates can be used to generate variations in exposure to transit travelers at different locations in space. The approach is demonstrated using the case of Metro users in Montreal, Canada. The case study demonstrates the use of isoexposure profiles as a novel approach to generate marketing intelligence. This should be of interest to transit agencies and businesses interested in developing partnerships.     

The changing accuracy of traffic forecasts

Researchers have improved travel demand forecasting methods in recent decades but invested relatively little to understand their accuracy. A major barrier has been the lack of necessary data. We compiled the largest known database of traffic forecast accuracy, composed of forecast traffic, post-opening counts and project attributes for 1291 road projects in the United States and Europe. We compared measured versus forecast traffic and identified the factors associated with accuracy. We found measured traffic is on average 6% lower than forecast volumes, with a mean absolute deviation of 17% from the forecast. Higher volume roads, higher functional classes, shorter time spans, and the use of travel models all improved accuracy. Unemployment rates also affected accuracy—traffic would be 1% greater than forecast on average, rather than 6% lower, if we adjust for higher unemployment during the post-recession years (2008 to 2014). Forecast accuracy was not consistent over time: more recent forecasts were more accurate, and the mean deviation changed direction. Traffic on projects that opened from the 1980s through early 2000s was higher on average than forecast, while traffic on more recent projects was lower on average than forecast. This research provides insight into the degree of confidence that planners and policy makers can expect from traffic forecasts and suggests that we should view forecasts as a range of possible outcomes rather than a single expected outcome.

     

Impacts of an emission based private car taxation policy - First year ex-post analysis

This paper assesses the impacts of a targeted policy designed to influence car purchasing trends towards lower CO₂ emitting vehicles. Vehicle registration tax and annual motor tax rates in Ireland changed in July 2008 from being based on engine size to emissions performance of cars. This paper provides a one year ex-post analysis of the first year of the tax change, tracking the change in purchasing trends arising from the measure related to specific CO₂ emissions, engine size and fuel, and the implications for car prices, CO₂ emissions abatement, and revenue gathered. While engine efficiency improvements had been offset by purchasing trends towards larger and generally less efficient cars in the past, with the average MJ/km remaining constant from 2000 to 2007, this analysis shows that in the first year of the new taxation system the average specific emissions of new cars fell by 13% to 145 g/km. This was brought about, not by a reduction in engine size, but rather through a significant shift to diesel cars. Despite an unexpected reduction in car sales due to a recession in 2008, the policy measure has had a larger than anticipated impact on CO₂ emissions, calculated to be 5.9 ktCO₂ in the first year of the measure. The strong price signal did however result in a 33% reduction in tax revenue from VRT, in financial terms amounting to a drop of €166 million compared to a baseline situation.     

Service effectiveness of prt vs collective ‐ corridor transport

A generalised model is used to provide estimates of overall trip times and speed for conventional corridor‐collective transport and PRT. The results demonstrate why traditional forms of transport find difficulty providing an effective service in a city. Short separations between stops are required to minimise walk times but on conventional transport this leads to significant reductions in achievable speed because of the need for frequent stops. It is also shown that there is very little benefit in service effectiveness from LRT/APM/Monorail over buses. PRT is immune to these effects. The present calculations typically show a benefit for PRT of a factor of two or greater in trip time over either bus or LRT/APM.     

Enhancing rail infra durability through freight bogie design

The extensive usage of railway infrastructure demands a high level of robustness, which can be achieved partly by considering (and managing) the track and rolling stock as one integral system with due attention to their interface. A growing number of infra managers consider, in this framework, the track-friendliness of vehicles that have access to their tracks as a key control parameter. The aim of this study is to provide further insight into potential contributions to track-friendliness, assessed in relation to track deterioration mechanisms and cost, understanding how potential benefits are best to be utilised. Six proposed freight bogie design measures are evaluated with respect to the improvement in curving behaviour, switch negotiation and related track degradation mechanisms. To this purpose a sensitivity analysis has been carried out by means of track–train simulations in the VAMPIRE® multi body simulation software. Additionally, the impact on track deterioration costs has been calculated for those track-friendly design modifications identified as most promising. Conclusions show that the standard Y25L freight bogie design displays rather a track-friendly behaviour. Tuning the primary yaw stiffness shows a high potential to further improve track-friendliness, significantly reducing track deterioration cost at narrow radius curves and switches (by, respectively, 30% and 60%). When calculating the overall deterioration cost for the travelled route, the calculation model should include a well-balanced representation of switches and narrow radius curves.     

竞争由求合作供应商联手打造汽车乘员安全

汽车零部件供应商、高校研究者和政府机构,正以分享先进技术的方式,共同探寻拯救生命的安全技术.