Driver behavior formulation in intersection dilemma zones with phone use distraction via a logit-Bayesian network hybrid approach

Use of cellular phone while driving is one of the top contributing factors that induce traffic crashes, resulting in significant loss of life and property. A dilemma zone is a circumstance near signalized intersections where drivers hesitate when making decisions related to their driving behaviors. Therefore, the dilemma zone has been identified as an area with high crash potential. This article utilizes a logit-based Bayesian network (BN) hybrid approach to investigate drivers' decision patterns in a dilemma zone with phone use, based on experimental data from driving simulations from the National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS). Using a logit regression model, five variables were found to be significant in predicting drivers' decisions in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks: older drivers (50–60 years old), yellow signal length, time to stop line, handheld phone tasks, and driver gender. The identified significant variables were then used to train a BN model to predict drivers' decisions at a dilemma zone and examine probabilistic impacts of these variables on drivers' decisions. The analysis results indicate that the trained BN model was effective in driver decision prediction and variable influence extraction. It was found that older drivers, a short yellow signal, a short time to stop line, nonhandheld phone tasks, and female drivers are factors that tend to result in drivers proceeding through intersections in a dilemma zone with phone use distraction. These research findings provide insight in understanding driver behavior patterns in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks.     

Examining the influence of firm performance on business risk-taking and the mediation effect of scale of operations in the container terminal industry

Container shipping and its related service sectors help accelerate globalization of the world economy. This industry has been experiencing rapid growth, prompting container terminal operators to increase their handling capacity in response. Providing container terminal services requires substantial capital investment in physical assets such as cargo handling facilities and information systems. On the other hand, operating container terminals is a long-term investment that typically spans several business cycles. Hence prudent asset management using appropriate tools is critical for container terminal operators to sustain their businesses. Generally, due to risk-adverseness, investors are unwilling to take more risk in their investment unless they can reap a higher return. Contrary to this argument, this study finds no direct influence of better firm performance as a proxy of higher return on business risk-taking by container terminal operators. Instead, scale of operations is positively associated with business risk-taking, suggesting that container terminal operators with a larger scale of operations are willing to take more business risk.     

Socio-demographic and built environment influences on the odds of being overweight or obese: The Atlanta experience

This paper explores the association of socio-demographic and built environment characteristics on the odds of being overweight and obese using data from the Atlanta SMARTRAQ travel survey. A new methodological framework based on a multinomial logit (MNL) model and an enhanced odds ratio plot is presented. The use of an MNL model overcomes limitations of many prior studies that employ a sequence of binary logit models to examine multiple weight categories. The use of an enhanced odds ratio plot provides important information into the relative importance of socio-demographic and built environment characteristics. Several new findings for the Atlanta area result from this study. Socio-demographic variables, including age and educational attainment, exhibit a non-linear relationship with the odds of being overweight or obese. Gender, age, ethnicity, and educational attainment are strongly associated with the odds of being overweight or obese, while income and number of students between 5 and 16 years old in the household have smaller effects. Built environment characteristics such as increased net residential densities and enhanced street connectivity are associated with reductions in the odds of being overweight and/or obese. Relative to socio-demographic variables, however, such built environment characteristics have a much smaller impact on describing the odds of being overweight or obese.     

The dynamic relationships between paper petroleum refining and physical trade of crude oil into the United States

This article examines the relationship between refinery margins traded on paper using petroleum futures (the paper refinery) and the physical trade of crude oil into the US. Computations of a 3:2:1 crack spread were constructed using daily observations of second- and third-nearby unleaded gasoline and heating oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NY MEX) and spot Brent crude oil prices. The crack spread represents the margin between the cost of crude oil feed stock today and the value of the products produced by a refinery in the future. Unit root tests on each of the time series found crack spreads to be stationary while crude oil imports were found to be non-stationary. A s the two series were found to be integrated of different order, cointegration analysis of the two series was not deemed appropriate. Instead, linear relationships between crack spreads and imports were examined using causality tests. It was found that the 2-month 3:2:1 crack spread Granger-causes crude oil imports and that this causality is unidirectional. The significance of these findings lies in the fact that other industries like tanker shipping derive their demand from the demand for, and trade in, petroleum. Crack spreads, therefore, can provide a leading indicator for short term developments in tanker demand. For a chartering manager who has ships on the spot market, crack spreads can help him/her anticipate demand developments and influence vessel deployment and chartering decisions.     

Determining intermediate origin-destination matrices for the analysis of composite mode trips

We consider in this paper the problem of determining intermediate origin-destination matrices for composite mode trips that involve a trip by private car to a parking facility and the continuation of the trip to the destination either by walking or by a transit mode. The intermediate origin-destination matrices relate to each component of the composite mode trip: a matrix from the trip origins to intermediate destinations which are parking lots and a matrix from the parking lots to the final destinations. The approach that we propose to solve this problem is to modify the entropy based trip distribution models to consider inequality constraints related to parking lot capacities. Such models may be easily calibrated by using well known calibration methods or generalization of these methods and may be easily solved by applying a primal feasible direction method of nonlinear programming.     

美国的城市交通规划

介绍了今后几十年中将影响城市交通规划的一些重要趋势,讨论了今后交通规划者在十个领域可能面临的挑战。     

2010北美国际车展的趋势

与2009年最后一场大型车展——法兰克福车展（IAA2009）给人的印象一样,上月结束的北美国际车展（NAIAS2010）继承了上一届的“绿色”主题,为观众呈现了一场电动车与混合动力车的视觉盛宴。可见,全球的汽车制造商都正迅速有序地按计划推出新车来应对来自市场因调整而产生的巨大挑战。     

100%液态氟硅橡胶:一种耐燃油和机油的液态硅橡胶

氟硅橡胶(FVMQs)由于其独特的物性而使其需求量并未得到更大的增长.氟硅橡胶(FSRs)用于制造接触发动机燃料/汽车燃料.溶剂和机油的汽车产品,其用量正在不断增长.随着更多的生产商使用FSRs来生产产品,加工工艺的优化与零件的生产效率日益变得重要,但是这些问题却仍是难以解决的.