Extending stated choice analysis to recognise agent-specific attribute endogeneity in bilateral group negotiation and choice: a think piece

This paper is a think piece on variations in the structure of stated preference studies when modelling the joint preferences of interacting agents who have the power to influence the attribute levels on offer. The approach proposed is an extension of standard stated choice methods, known as ‘stated endogenous attribute level’ (SEAL) analysis. It allows for interactive agents to adjust attribute levels off a base stated choice specification that are within their control, in an effort to reach agreement in an experimental setting. This accomplishes three goals: (1) the ability to place respondents in an environment that more closely matches interactive settings in which some attribute levels are endogenous to a specific agent, should the modeller wish to capture such behaviour; (2) the improved ability of the modeller to capture the behaviour in such settings, including a greater wealth of information on the related interaction processes, rather than simply outcomes; and (3) the expansion of the set of situations that the modeller can investigate using experimental data.

Mass transit systems of Beijing: governance evolution and analysis

Developing a more efficient mass transit system, in highly populated cities, improves the mobility, decreases the dependency of private cars, alleviates traffic congestion, and provides a more environmentally friendly means of travel. Recently, the city of Beijing decided to have a target of becoming as a ‘public-transport city’ with a fascinating mass transit system within a larger plan, of building humanistic, scientific and technological, and green public-transport systems. This work discusses the governance evolution of the mass transit system of Beijing between 1949–2008, comprised of two groups of transit systems, the road surface public-transport system (bus, tram, trolley, etc.), and the subway public-transport system. In addition, a time-series analysis is introduced in an attempt to examine the effect of governance evolution on the two transit systems, and of the impacts of the governance structural changes on the mass transit system. The time-series model is introduced using the annual statistics data of the period 1949–2008. The outcome of the analysis is viewed with precaution because of the incompleteness of the many endogenous and exogenous factors to affect the public-transport demand. Generally speaking it is concluded that the governance evolution provides beneficial effect of the Beijing mass transit activity; however, for satisfying the significant increase of the Beijing city’s travel demand and maintaining sustainable development, the governance-involvement pattern needs to be reformed.     

Exploring public transport usage trends in an ageing population

An ageing population remains one of the most significant challenges for Western society in the 21st century. Whilst public transport use has attractive sustainability features for older generations there is mixed evidence with regard to trends in travel and public transport use in ageing societies. This paper explores public transport trip rates amongst older age groups using travel survey evidence collected from a household travel survey in Melbourne, Australia for the period 1994 to 1999. A particular aim of the research was to establish trends in trip rates so as to explore the impact of the ageing Baby Boomer generation on travel by public transport. The results suggested that compared to those aged below 60, those aged over 60 years demonstrated 30% lower trip making overall and 16% lower public transport trip rates. Longitudinal trends in trip rates showed those aged over 60 had a very small decline in trip rates by public transport (−0.004 average daily trips per annum) but increasing rates for car trips. A further analysis showed a small but significant increase in longitudinal trip rates of public transport use amongst Baby Boomers (0.004 daily trips p.a., p < .05) while car usage for Baby Boomers was steady. The implication of these findings is that trends in the existing over 60s population are not necessarily going to flow through to behaviour patterns in the Baby Boomer generations. The Baby Boomer age group showed longitudinal trends in travel behaviour which contrasted with those of the existing over 60s generation notably with a trend towards increased public transport usage.     

Factors associated with bicycle ownership and use: a study of six small U.S. cities

As a means of transportation and as a form of physical activity, bicycling generates benefits to the bicyclist as well as to the community as a whole. Bicycling now accounts for less than 1 percent of all trips for all purposes in the U.S., but evidence from other western countries suggests that under the right conditions, bicycling levels can be significantly higher. Indeed, the experiences of some U.S. cities suggest that it is possible to create conditions conducive to higher levels of bicycling even in the U.S. However, the extent to which bicycle investments have contributed to bicycling levels in these communities has not been rigorously assessed. The purpose of this study is to provide a better understanding of the determinants of bicycle ownership and use as a basis for identifying ways to promote bicycling. A cross-sectional study of six cities was designed to test the importance of bicycle infrastructure and other physical environment factors relative to individual factors and social environment factors, using a nested logit model to examine ownership and use decisions jointly. The results show strong effects of individual attitudes and physical and social environment factors on bicycle ownership and use.     

Investigation on the formation mechanism of ordered carbide (FeMn)<Subscript>3</Subscript>AlC in the Al added twinning-induced plasticity steels

The spinodal composition zone in Al added Fe-Mn-Al-C twinning-induced plasticity（TWIP） steels can be determined by contents of Al and C and aging temperature together, based on the thermodynamic analysis. Precipitation of ordered（FeMn）₃AlC carbide by the mechanism of spinodal decomposition occurs in the C-rich and Al-rich zone with low aging temperature. Increase of aging temperature shrinks spinodal composition zone to the high Al and C contents. As a result, the precipitation of（FeMn）₃AlC carbide alters from spinodal decomposition to classical nucleation-growth manner gradually. Further calculation indicates that the diffusion of Al can play a key role in determining the growth rate of（FeMn）₃AlC carbide at high aging temperature.     

A hybrid firefly algorithm for optimizing fractional proportional-integral-derivative controller in ship steering

In this paper, a new algorithm which integrates the powerful firefly algorithm(FA) and the ant colony optimization(ACO) has been used in tracking control of ship steering for optimization of fractional-order proportional-integral-derivative(FOPID) controller gains. Particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm is also used to optimize FOPID controllers, and their performances are compared. It is found that FA optimized FOPID controller gives better performance than others. Sensitivity analysis has been carried out to see the robustness of optimum FOPID gains obtained at nominal conditions to wide changes in system parameters, and the optimum FOPID gains need not be reset for wide changes in system parameters.     

Human reliability analysis method on armored vehicle system considering error correction

Human reliability analysis(HRA) is an expansion of man-machine engineering. It is also a new multidisciplinary based on behavioral science, cognitive science, information processing, system analysis and probability statistics in order to analyze, predict, reduce and prevent human errors. Firstly, the quantitative analysis model of HRA is proposed based on Markov process theory by using human error probability(HEP) and error correction cycle(ECC) as parameters. And human reliability evaluation criterion is built. Then, the HRA process considering error correction is proposed based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM). Finally, according to the characteristics of armored vehicle system, common performance condition(CPC) in CREAM is improved.A reliability impact index is characterized by the overall contexts of tasks. Human reliability evaluation criterion of armored vehicle system is formulated. And the result of HRA is obtained based on the method presented in this paper. In addition, the relative weights are estimated by combining scale of 10/10—18/2 and analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and the triangular fuzzy number considering confidence factor and optimism index is adopted in order to reduce the subjectivity. The analysis results show that the method presented in this paper is reasonable and feasible. Meantime, the method can provide guidance for human reliability analysis of other weapon systems.