An adaptive information fusion model to predict the short-term link travel time distribution in dynamic traffic networks

As intelligent transportation systems (ITS) approach the realm of widespread deployment, there is an increasing need to robustly capture the variability of link travel time in real-time to generate reliable predictions of real-time traffic conditions. This study proposes an adaptive information fusion model to predict the short-term link travel time distribution by iteratively combining past information on link travel time on the current day with the real-time link travel time information available at discrete time points. The past link travel time information is represented as a discrete distribution. The real-time link travel time is represented as a range, and is characterized using information quality in terms of information accuracy and time delay. A nonlinear programming formulation is used to specify the adaptive information fusion model to update the short-term link travel time distribution by focusing on information quality. The model adapts good information by weighing it higher while shielding the effects of bad information by reducing its weight. Numerical experiments suggest that the proposed model adequately represents the short-term link travel time distribution in terms of accuracy and robustness, while ensuring consistency with ambient traffic flow conditions. Further, they illustrate that the mean of a representative short-term travel time distribution is not necessarily a good tracking indicator of the actual (ground truth) time-dependent travel time on that link. Parametric sensitivity analysis illustrates that information accuracy significantly influences the model, and dominates the effects of time delay and the consistency constraint parameter. The proposed information fusion model bridges key methodological gaps in the ITS deployment context related to information fusion and the need for short-term travel time distributions.     

Developing an integrated scobit-based activity participation and time allocation model to explore influence of childcare on women’s time use behaviour

Focusing on the influence of childcare on women’s time use behaviour, this paper develops an integrated model of activity participation and time allocation, where the former is represented based on a scobit model and the latter based on a multi-linear utility function under the utility-maximizing principle. The integration of the scobit model with the time allocation model is done by applying Lee’s transformation. Especially, the scobit model is adopted to relax the assumption, made in the Logit or Probit model, that individuals having indifferent preferences over participation and non-participation are most sensitive to changes in explanatory variables. Using a large-scale time use data (66,839 persons) collected in Japan, the effectiveness of the proposed integrated model is empirically confirmed. It is revealed that the probabilities of participating in compulsory-contracted activities and discretionary activities with the highest sensitivity to changes in explanatory variables are 65 and 81%, respectively. Variances of social childcare variables explain about half of the total variance of the time use for discretionary activities; however, for compulsory-contracted activities, social childcare variables explain only less than 1% of the total variance of activity participation and less than 10% of total variable of time allocation.     

舰船装备综合保障现状分析与发展趋势

保障性与作战性能居于同等重要的地位,是制约舰船装错发展和影响寿命周期费用的重要因素.本文对国内外舰船综合保障现状与发展趋势进行了详细、深入地分析,同时针对我国舰船装备综合保障存在的主要问题,提出了参考性的建议.     

宁波轨道交通高架线综合降噪效果测试与分析

宁波轨道交通1号线一期工程高架线开展了无声屏障、全封闭声屏障、全封闭声屏障+梯形轨枕和全封闭声屏障+道床垫浮置式整体道床工况下的噪声对比测试试验.在各测量断面处布置7个噪声测点,并得到12.5～20000 Hz频段的噪声声压级与频谱曲线,分析各工况下噪声频谱特性与降噪效果.结果表明:仅采用全封闭声屏时,噪声源强处降噪效果最佳,且降噪效果随水平距离的增大呈衰减趋势;在全封闭声屏障的基础上采用梯形轨枕或道床垫浮置式整体道床后各测点(测点l除外)处降噪效果进一步增大,减振轨道确保了全封闭声屏障的降噪效果;减振轨道能有效减小桥梁结构噪声,但同时也增大了轮轨噪声;全封闭声屏障+道床垫浮置式整体道床的降噪效果优于全封闭声屏障+梯形轨枕.     

城市轨道交通高架桥结构噪声声场分布及传播规律研究

对安装有全封闭声屏障的城市轨道交通高架桥及沿线进行噪声测试,并对测试结果的频域和声场分布进行分析。结果表明:桥梁结构噪声以低频为主,峰值出现在50~80 Hz频段范围内;腹板和翼板近场噪声频谱特性基本一致,底板近场噪声总声压级最大,但某些频段声压却较小;桥梁结构噪声总体上随着横向距离增大而逐渐衰减,但局部由于干涉作用出现随着距离增大频段声压反而增大的现象;在地面反射波的作用下,声场沿垂向呈现出复杂的变化规律,且地面反射对远场近地面噪声影响较大。     

卫星探测舰船能力仿真研究

针对多颗卫星联合对舰船目标观测活动中的探测能力问题,研究对其量化描述方式并进行仿真。综合运用运动仿真、概率论、连续马尔科夫链和蒙特卡罗法等方法对卫星探测舰船活动各阶段建立相应的模型,并结合数学函数提出多星联合探测能力量化指标。以某作战想定为背景,进行了仿真计算,得出结论。仿真结果表明该模型能够解决多星联合观测舰船目标问题,并且该研究成果对航天装备效能评估和装备体系发展规划论证具有一定的指导意义。     

一种结构垂向冲击载荷测量方法分析研究

某些作用在舰船结构上的瞬态动载荷,由于受到客观条件限制（比如空间狭小）,不方便直接通过压力传感器获得其大小,而该载荷对于船体结构设计又关系重大,如何取得外载荷曲线便成了十分关键的问题。针对实船某承受特殊冲击载荷的基座结构,通过测量其结构动应变,利用材料应变-应力关系曲线得出了冲击载荷的时间历程曲线,最后用有限元法对该冲击载荷测量曲线进行验证。结果表明,当结构应变率小于3mm/mm/s时,可采用静态材料应变-应力关系曲线对结构冲击载荷进行测量计算,从而为此类结构外载荷测量方法提供参考。     

打桩作用下高桩码头岸坡稳定可靠度分析

系统分析打桩对高桩码头岸坡稳定的不利影响,研究沉桩过程中孔隙水压力的分布,结合边坡稳定分析中的简化Bishop法建立极限状态方程,考虑土性参数相关性按JC法计算可靠度指标,并编制计算程序.根据计算理论,对南通某港打桩时码头的岸坡稳定可靠性进行分析.结果表明:打桩会对岸坡稳定产生不利影响,考虑打桩作用时岸坡稳定安全系数明显降低,可靠度指标也降低.因此,建议对工程打桩时码头岸坡稳定进行验算.     

变断面钢板弹簧的设计计算

本文对各片不等长的变断面钢板弹簧进行了深入的研究,并建立了全面系统的设计计算方法。     

西江三桥设计

综合考虑梧州西江地形和通航要求,介绍西江三桥桥型的选型和上、下部结构设计。