Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

A probabilistic damage tolerance concept for welded joints Part 2: a supplement to the rule based S–N approach

The first part of this paper presented the required statistics and stochastic models for reliability analysis of the fatigue fracture of welded plate joints. This present Part 2 suggests a probabilistic damage tolerance supplement to the design S–N curves for welded joints. The goal is to provide the practising engineer with simple tools that predict the reliability against fatigue fracture during service life. The impact of the chosen fatigue design factors (FDF) and the uncertainty in the applied stresses is revealed. The effect of an in-service inspection programme is also predicted. The results are presented as dimensionless matrices and suggested for use in support of decision-making at the design stage, without any advanced fracture mechanics modelling and stochastic simulation. One important advantage of this format is that the probability levels are presented regardless of actual weld class and target service life (TSL). This is obtained by introducing the FDF as a key parameter to the results. This parameter is defined as the ratio of predicted fatigue life over TSL. FDF is always calculated in the S–N approach which is mandatory in fatigue life prediction. Various welded details (classes) will have the same reliability level for the same FDF. This is true at the end of TSL and at earlier stages, i.e. fractions of TSL. The absolute value of TSL is immaterial for a given FDF. In the case of in-service inspection, the inspection interval is also given without dimensions as a fraction of TSL.

Only the influence of future scheduled inspections is treated. Updating based on actual inspection results is not included as the scope of work is inspection planning at the design stage. Results for some frequent cases occurring in practice are readily derived and presented.     

Shipping control and the changing use of marine space

In this paper Professor Couper discusses the divisions of marine space as set out in the Revised Single Negotiating Text of UNCLOS III in relation to maritime accidents. This is followed by a contribution by Mr Burger on statistical material related to the incidence of marine accidents in North-West European waters. The third section of the paper by Captain S. Abdelgalil, is devoted to a technical discussion on traffic lanes in confined waters.     

GPS-based optimization of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles’ power demands in a cold weather city

Using the WPG03 duty cycle developed from global positioning data collected in Winnipeg, Canada, real world energy demands and costs are modeled. Three types of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, four temperatures and two charging scenarios are compared to a vehicle with an internal combustion engine. Cold temperatures are shown to greatly affect vehicle operation energy costs, which is an important consideration for cold weather cities such as Winnipeg. The largest energy cost savings are obtained for smaller-battery plug-in hybrids that had the opportunity to charge during the day.     

美国的城市交通规划

介绍了今后几十年中将影响城市交通规划的一些重要趋势，讨论了今后交通规划者在十个领域可能面临的挑战。     

异步电动机矢量控制(FOC)和直接转矩控制(DTC)方案的比较

磁场定向控制和直接转矩控制技术正在成为异步电动机转矩控制的工业标准.文章给出这两种控制方案的详细比较,重点是它们的优、缺点.从转矩和电流脉动、跟踪转矩命令阶跃变化的转矩瞬态响应等方面评估了两种控制方案的性能.根据数值仿真结果进行了分析,但未涉及系统硬件带来的二次影响.     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip

A stated preference experiment was performed in Calgary in Canada to examine how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. A total of 635 complete observations were obtained. In each observation the respondent was presented with a set of possible departure time scenarios and asked to indicate the order of preference for these scenarios. Each scenario was described by specifying the automobile travel time, the expected arrival time relative to the movie start time, the parking cost, the probability of being at least ten minutes late for the movie and the length of time the movie had been running. This forced the respondent to trade off between conditions regarding these attributes. Age, gender and frequency of movie attendance were also recorded. The observations thus obtained were used to estimate the parameter values for a range of alternative utility functions in logit models representing this choice behaviour. The results indicate that all of the attributes included have significant effects on departure time choice in the situation being considered. They also indicate that travellers are prepared to arrive roughly two minutes early for each minute of travel time saved; that the money value of driving time for trips to recreational activities is about half that for trips to work; that one additional percent in the probability of arriving late is equivalent to roughly 0.20 Canadian dollars or 1.93 minutes drive time; and that there is a preference for a non-zero expected early arrival time regardless of the associated probability of arriving late. Some of these results are novel and others are consistent with findings for work trips in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to the approach being used here.     

State Observer Design for an Adaptive Vehicle Suspension

This paper presents a state observer design for an adaptive vehicle suspension. Based on simulations, two main issues are investigated, (a) the selection of measurement signals in relation to estimation accuracy and sensing needs and (b) the effects of variations in both road inputs and vehicle parameters on estimation accuracy. Meanwhile, the system stabilities are also examined concerning the effects of using different combination of measurement states and the system parameter variations in practical, possible ranges.     

Biochemical composition of marine sediment from the eastern Weddell Sea (Antarctica): High nutritive value in a high benthic-biomass environment

Within the SCAR's international EASIZ programme, as part of the benthic–pelagic coupling experiment, grain size and organic matter contents in marine surface sediment were measured. Samples were taken during the austral autumn of 2000 from 3 regions in the eastern Weddell Sea: Kapp Norvegia, Four Seasons Bank, and Austasen.In general, sediments were fine sand with a grain size fraction < 200 μm representing more than 40% of the total weight. The sediments from Four Seasons Bank (64 to 107 m depth) were coarser than those from Austasen and Kapp Norvegia (209 to 480 m depth), presumably due to winnowing of fine sediment at shallow depths. Organic carbon (OC) content ranged from 0.25% to 1.2% and constituted 10% to 97% of the total carbon. The samples from Kapp Norvegia presented the highest OC values. Overall, protein (PRT), lipid (LPD), and carbohydrate (CHO) contents were similar to those in sediment from cold regions (e.g., the North Atlantic and the Ross Sea) but higher than those in sediment from other Antarctic and more septentrional regions (e.g., the Ross Sea and the Mediterranean). The difference within the Antarctic is explained through the local conditions in Terra Nova Bay and Kapp Norvegia. In the Antarctic, PRT and LPD carbon were the main contributors to the biopolymeric carbon (BPC). In the eastern Weddell Sea shelf, the BPC accounted for more than 90% of the OC in most of the samples. More than 82% of the total PRT, LPD, and CHO were present in the fraction < 200 μm. This work remarks the existence of sediments with a high nutritional value persistent several weeks after the spring–summer pulse of fresh organic matter. It is also highlighted the high potential availability of these sediments (due to its grain size) for the benthic communities inhabiting this high-latitude continental shelf.