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151.
This paper establishes a link between an activity-based model for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), dynamic traffic assignment,
emission modelling, and air quality simulation. This provides agent-based output that allows vehicle emissions to be tracked
back to individuals and households who are producing them. In addition, roadway emissions are dispersed and the resulting
ambient air concentrations are linked with individual time-activity patterns in order to assess population exposure to air
pollution. This framework is applied to evaluate the effects of a range of policy interventions and 2031 scenarios on the
generation of vehicle emissions and greenhouse gases in the GTA. Results show that the predicted increase of approximately
2.6 million people and 1.3 million jobs in the region by 2031 compared to 2001 levels poses a major challenge in achieving
meaningful reductions in GHGs and air pollution. 相似文献
152.
In an attempt to reduce CO2 emissions from motorized transport, the Taiwanese government introduced an idling stop policy for vehicles in early 2007.
This paper seeks to quantify the environmental benefits of the policy based on a stated preference analysis. Motorcyclists
were surveyed at urban intersections in Taiwan, to identify the amount of time they would be willing to turn off their engines
while waiting at traffic lights (the WTO). A contingent valuation framework based on stated preference questions was designed
to determine the WTO. Results obtained from the Spike model showed that the average motorcyclist’s WTO is 82 s. In another
analysis, in which other variables were taken into consideration, such as the possibility that the policy will be enacted
as legislation, the expected WTO increased to 101 s. In both cases, an idling stop policy would have positive environmental
effects, reducing gasoline usage by 1021 L per hour and reducing CO2 emissions by 0.56 metric tons per hour at the intersection studied during peak periods. 相似文献
153.
This paper examines the location choice associated with discretionary activities (in-home vs. out-of-home). These substitution
patterns are important in terms of travel demand as in-home activities do not necessitate travel while out-of-home activities
incur travel. Mixed logit models are estimated using an activity dataset (2003 CHASE data) to analyze the factors associated
with this choice at the individual activity-level. Results suggest that the attributes of an activity significantly contribute
to understanding the likelihood of engaging in out-of-home activities. Activity type interaction terms reveal the varying
influence that socio-demographics, activity attributes and travel have over four different activity types modeled. The results
reveal that the location choice (in-home vs. out-of-home) is sensitive to travel characteristics. As the travel time and cost
increases, an individual is less likely to engage in an activity out-of-home. Compared to passive and social activities, the
location of active activities is more sensitive to changes in travel attributes. 相似文献
154.
Reliability in cost estimates in publicly funded projects is more important today than ever with increased governmental funding
to infrastructure projects and associated accountability requirements, but surface transportation projects, large and small,
in the United States have a legacy of cost overruns. The problems with these overruns start with the cost estimation process
before projects begin. Studies have shown that early cost estimations reflect best-case scenarios rather than realistic expectations,
and have attributed technical, economic, psychological, and political reasons for underestimation. The primary objectives
of this research were to determine how costs have been presented and updated in environmental impact statements, to identify
endemic technical problems with cost estimation during the environmental review of surface transportation projects, and to
develop recommendations for improving cost estimation and disclosure. Cost estimation methods were analyzed from the documents
of 100 projects, including draft environmental impact statements, final environmental impact statements, and records of decision.
The study concluded that the lack of guidance on how to include cost estimation in environmental review revealed itself in
the level of detail and attention given to estimating costs. Agencies omitted or included various aspects of cost estimation
randomly. Professional organizations should fill the gap of the need for specific guidance to cost estimation for environmental
review so it can evolve as a state of the practice. 相似文献
155.
This paper seeks to improve our understanding of passengers’ behavioral intention by proposing an integrated framework from
the attitudinal perspective. According to the literature in marketing research, we establish a causal relationship model that
considers “service quality-satisfaction-behavioral intentions” paradigm, perceived value theory, and switching barrier theory.
Exploring passengers’ behavioral intention from satisfaction and perceived value help to understand how passengers are attracted
by the company, while switching barriers assist in realizing how passengers are “locked” into a relationship with the current
company. Furthermore, in order to capture the nature of service quality, we adopt a hierarchical factor structure which serves
service quality as the higher-order factor. In this study, coach industry is selected as our research subject. The empirical
results, as hypothesized, show that all causal relationships are statistically significant, and perceived value us the most
important predictor of satisfaction and passengers’ behavioral intention. In conclusion, the managerial implications and suggestions
for future research are discussed. 相似文献
156.
Statistical and dynamical analyses of propagation mechanisms of solitary internal waves in a two-layer stratification 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Chen-Yuan Chen 《Journal of Marine Science and Technology》2011,16(1):100-114
The blocking effect of submarine ridges on the propagation of internal solitary waves (ISWs) over the topography of the seabed
results in the fission of the solitary waves that accompany the generation of reflected and transmitted waves. In this study,
multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) is used to investigate the inseparable relationship between the transmission and
reflection. An examination of the error sums of squares and cross-products (SSCP) matrix and the correction matrix shows that
the correlation between the transmission (at/ai) and reflection coefficients (ar/ai) is quite low (0.284). Moreover, from
multivariate testing, including Pillai’s trace, Wilks’ lambda, Hotelling’s trace and Roy’s largest root, we conclude that
the ridge height has a large effect (η = 0.456) on both the amplitude of the transmitted and reflected waves, as well as large (η = 0.411) and very large (η = 0.469) effects on the amplitudes of the transmitted and reflected waves, respectively. In conclusion, the results in the
present study highlight the importance of the role played by ridge height in coherent ISW transmission and reflection during
oceanic wave–ridge interactions. 相似文献
157.
Hirotada Hashimoto Naoya Umeda Akihiko Matsuda 《Journal of Marine Science and Technology》2011,16(4):448-461
The new intact stability criteria which are under development at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are required
to cover a broaching phenomenon, well known as a great threat to high-speed vessels which can lead to capsizing. Some reports
exist which demonstrate that their numerical models can predict a highly nonlinear phenomenon of broaching. However, additional
validation studies are needed for unconventional vessels, in addition to conventional ones, to develop direct stability assessment
methods for the new intact stability criteria. In this research, we selected as the subject ship a wave-piercing tumblehome
vessel with twin screws and twin rudders, a design expected to be one of a new generation of high-speed monohull ships. Firstly,
a series of captive model tests were conducted to measure the resistance, the manoeuvring forces, the wave-exciting forces,
the heel-induced hydrodynamic forces, and the roll restoring variation for the unconventional tumblehome vessel. Secondly,
the existing mathematical model which had been developed for broaching prediction of conventional vessels with a single propeller
and a single rudder was extended to unconventional vessels with twin propellers and twin rudders. Finally, comparisons between
numerical simulations and the existing free running model experiments were conducted. As a result, it was demonstrated that
fair quantitative prediction of broaching is realised when the rudder force variation, the roll restoring variation and the
heel-induced hydrodynamic force for large heel angles are taken into account. 相似文献
158.
Parametric rolling prediction in irregular seas using combination of deterministic ship dynamics and probabilistic wave theory 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Atsuo Maki Naoya Umeda Shigeaki Shiotani Eiichi Kobayashi 《Journal of Marine Science and Technology》2011,16(3):294-310
In recent years there have been reports of serious accidents of parametric rolling for modern container ships and car carriers.
For avoiding such accidents, a prediction method of parametric rolling in irregular seas is required. Since parametric rolling
is practically non-ergodic, repetitions of numerical simulations or experiments could be not feasible to ascertain the behaviour.
Therefore, in this paper, a method combining a stochastic approach with a deterministic approach in order to estimate the
probabilistic index without such simple repetitions is developed. The ship's response in regular seas is estimated by solving
an averaged system of the original 1-DoF roll model, and random waves necessary for occurrence of parametric rolling is achieved
by using Longuet-Higgins’s or Kimura’s wave group theory. As a result, a fast and robust computation method of the probabilistic
index is established. Finally, it is concluded that the proposed method is considered to be one of the useful tools for discussing
the new IMO Intact Stability Code. 相似文献
159.
Kazuhiro Iijima Kazuhiro Kimura Weijun Xu Masahiko Fujikubo 《Journal of Marine Science and Technology》2011,16(4):379-389
Dynamic collapse behavior of a ship’s hull girder in waves is investigated; post-ultimate strength behavior is the focus.
Firstly, a simulation method is proposed. Assuming that a plastic hinge is formed during the collapse of the hull girder,
the whole ship is modeled as two rigid bodies connected amidship via a nonlinear rotational spring. The post-ultimate strength
behavior, such as the reduction of load carrying capacity due to buckling and yielding, is reflected in the model. Hydrodynamic
loads are evaluated by using nonlinear strip theory to account for the effect of large plastic deformations on the loads.
A scaled model for validation of the simulation is designed and fabricated. Then a series of tank tests is conducted using
the scaled model to validate the simulation results. Post-ultimate strength behavior characteristics in waves are clarified
by using the numerical and tank test results. It is shown that the hull girder collapses rapidly after reaching ultimate strength,
and then the plastic deformation grows until unloading starts at the collapsed section. Finally, several parametric dependencies
of the extent of the collapse behavior are discussed based on a series of the simulations. 相似文献
160.
This paper presents a numerical analysis of the dynamic transient behaviors of undersea cables. In this numerical study, the
governing equations based on Euler-Bernoulli beam theory are adopted, and they can satisfy many applications no matter what
the magnitude of the cable tension is. The nonlinear coupled equations are solved by a popular central finite difference method,
and the numerical results of transient behaviors are presented when several kinds of surrounding conditions, such as different
towing speeds of surface vessel, different currents and waves with various frequencies and amplitudes, are exerted. Then a
detailed comparison of the results, including the upper end tension and cable shape in time-domain, is made under the above
external excitations, and finally the possible reasons for these are further explained. 相似文献