A Training Framework for Understanding Conflict in the Coastal Zone

The coastal zone is attractive for human settlement because it tends to be resource rich, providing a good location to generate incomes and livelihoods. Equally, however, it is a complex and powerful natural environment, which means that the coastal zone often becomes a focus of conflict with multiple users competing for limited space and resources. Understanding the causes of, and determining solutions to, the ensuing problems requires inputs from a range of analyses across sectors and disciplines. However, different disciplinary and sectoral approaches frequently use different investigative methods, language, and means of presenting results. This article presents a framework that has been developed in collaboration with Indian institutions over the past three years in an effort to address some of these fundamental problems of analysis and translation into policy action. Key components addressed by the framework are strengthening the capacity to practice, knowing how to proceed and how to find out what needs to be known using experience-based problem solving.     

EFD and CFD for KCS heaving and pitching in regular head waves

The KCS container ship was investigated in calm water and regular head seas by means of EFD and CFD. The experimental study was conducted in FORCE Technology’s towing tank in Denmark, and the CFD study was conducted using the URANS codes CFDSHIP-IOWA and Star-CCM+ plus the potential theory code AEGIR. Three speeds were covered and the wave conditions were chosen in order to study the ship’s response in waves under resonance and maximum exciting conditions. In the experiment, the heave and pitch motions and the resistance were measured together with wave elevation of the incoming wave. The model test was designed and conducted in order to enable UA assessment of the measured data. The results show that the ship responds strongly when the resonance and maximum exciting conditions are met. With respect to experimental uncertainty, the level for calm water is comparable to PMM uncertainties for maneuvering testing while the level is higher in waves. Concerning the CFD results, the computation shows a very complex and time-varying flow pattern. For the integral quantities, a comparison between EFD and CFD shows that the computed motions and resistance in calm water is in fair agreement with the measurement. In waves, the motions are still in fair agreement with measured data, but larger differences are observed for the resistance. The mean resistance is reasonable, but the first order amplitude of the resistance time history is underpredicted by CFD. Finally, it seems that the URANS codes are in closer agreement with the measurements compared to the potential theory.     

Integrated reliability and sizing optimization of a large composite structure

In this paper, we present the application of probabilistic design modeling and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) methodology to the sizing optimization of a composite advanced submarine sail structure under parametric uncertainty. With the help of probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the influence of individual random variables on each structural failure mode is examined, and the critical modes are treated as probabilistic design constraints under consistent lower bounds on the corresponding reliability indices. Whereas the failure modes are evaluated for structural components in the solution of the RBDO problem, the overall system reliability is also evaluated as a post-optimization step. The results indicate that in comparison to a deterministic-optimum design, the structural mass of the probabilistic optimum design is slightly higher when consistent probabilistic constraints are imposed, and the overall structural stiffness is found to be more critical than individual component laminate ply thicknesses in meeting the specified design constraints. Moreover, the post-optimality analysis shows that the overall system failure probability of the probabilistic optimum design is more than 50% lower than that of the deterministic optimal design with less than 5% penalty in structural mass.     

Research progress and application of computational method for hydrodynamic noise from air-water interface北大核心CSCD

含水气界面水动力噪声是船海工程结构物经常遇到的一类典型重要噪声,具有机理复杂、声源形式多样、传播影响因素众多等特点。含水气界面水动力噪声与自由面相互作用,受空化、水气泡混合流等影响,对舰船的隐蔽性造成很多负面影响,具有重要的研究意义。分别从自由面噪声、空化噪声和水气泡混合流噪声3个方面进行介绍,并阐述相应噪声的计算方法以及在噪声计算时需要考虑的关键问题和目前所采用的解决方案。最后,展望未来的研究发展方向。     

Transport of radionuclides by sea-ice and dense-water formed in western Kara Sea flaw leads

A transport assessment of particle-bound and dissolved artificial radionuclides (¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu) by sea-ice and dense-water formed in western Kara Sea flaw leads close to the Novaya Zemlya dumping sites is presented in this study. We both performed a “best estimate” based on available data, and a “maximum assessment” relying on simulated constant releases of 1 TBq ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu from individual dumping bays. The estimates are based on a combination of (i) the content of particulate matter in sea-ice; (ii) analytical data and numerical simulations of radionuclide concentrations in shelf surface deposits, suspended particulate matter (SPM), and the dissolved phase; and (iii) estimates of lead-ice and dense-water formation rates as well as modeling results of local ice drift pathways. In the “best estimate” case, 2.90 GBq ¹³⁷Cs and 0.51 GBq ^239,240Pu attached to sea-ice sediments can be exported from the lead areas toward the central Arctic basin. The radionuclide burden of the annually formed dense lead water in the “best estimate” amounts to 4.68 TBq ¹³⁷Cs and 0.014 TBq ^239,240Pu. In the “maximum assessment”, potential export-rates of ice-particle bound ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu toward the central Arctic would amount to 0.64 and 0.16 TBq, respectively. As much as ≈900 TBq ¹³⁷Cs and ≈6.75 TBq ^239,240Pu could be annually taken up by 34.75 dense-water rejected in the lead area. Assuming the (unlikely) instantaneous release of the total ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu inventories (≈1 PBq and 10 TBq, respectively) from the Novaya Zemlya dumping sites into the dissolved phase, the dense lead water locally formed during one winter season could take up ≈90% of the Cs and ≈68% of the Pu released.     

Altimeter assimilation in the OCCAM global model: Part I: A twin experiment

An altimeter data assimilation scheme has been tested in the OCCAM (Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Modelling) global 1/4°, 36-level model using a twin experiment format. The Cooper and Haines displacement scheme is used. The method works well in most regions and depths. Currents and densities in the top 1000 m generally improve by over 50–70% after 5 months of sea level assimilation every 15 days. Below 1000 m, an error reduction of up to 50% is achieved. The errors remain low during a further 60-day run without assimilation. Diagnostics for the North Atlantic, the Tropical Pacific and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are shown alongside the global averages.The main problems encountered were in weakly stratified regions of the Antarctic and Arctic seas. A scale selective filter is developed to avoid assimilating scales much larger than the local deformation radius, and this avoids the adverse assimilation effects in the southern oceans. A companion paper uses this scheme to assimilate TOPEX and ERS-1 altimeter maps.     

Overview of intelligent ship route optimization methods北大核心CSCD

智能船舶航线优化在学术界和工业界均受到越来越多的关注。针对智能船舶航线优化问题,从航线设计方法和航线优化算法这2个层面,分别阐述各种设计方法和优化算法的特点。结合近5年来的最新研究成果,在分析国内外智能船舶航线优化技术发展现状的基础上,将航线设计方法归纳为3种,即基于气象数据的航线优化、基于油耗模型的航线优化以及基于航线库或航路点库的航线优化,剖析其技术内涵及应用情况;深入分析改进的等时线法、动态规划法、图形搜索算法、智能算法、人工智能和机器学习算法的特性及不足,总结归纳将各类算法应用于智能船舶航线优化时存在的主要问题。最后,简要展望智能船舶航线优化的发展趋势,为未来在该领域的研究提供一定的思路。     

The external cost of speed at sea: An analysis based on selected short sea shipping routes

According to the mid-term review of the EU White Paper on Transport, Short Sea Shipping (SSS) is expected to grow at a rate of 59% (metric tonnes) between 2000 and 2020. If we consider that the overall expected increase in both freight exchanges and volume is 50%, sea transport is one of the most feasible alternatives to reduce traffic congestion on European roads. Maritime transportation may compete with road transport as far as certain traffics are concerned, but only when assuming external costs. This paper analyzes several intermodal transport chains involving a sea leg by comparing the effect of pollutant emissions from different ship types and road transport in terms of potential external cost savings. The translation of these emissions into environmental costs shows, for certain conditions, savings in the case of sea transport that would justify the use of an environmental bonus to promote the sea option.     

Socio-demographic and built environment influences on the odds of being overweight or obese: The Atlanta experience

This paper explores the association of socio-demographic and built environment characteristics on the odds of being overweight and obese using data from the Atlanta SMARTRAQ travel survey. A new methodological framework based on a multinomial logit (MNL) model and an enhanced odds ratio plot is presented. The use of an MNL model overcomes limitations of many prior studies that employ a sequence of binary logit models to examine multiple weight categories. The use of an enhanced odds ratio plot provides important information into the relative importance of socio-demographic and built environment characteristics. Several new findings for the Atlanta area result from this study. Socio-demographic variables, including age and educational attainment, exhibit a non-linear relationship with the odds of being overweight or obese. Gender, age, ethnicity, and educational attainment are strongly associated with the odds of being overweight or obese, while income and number of students between 5 and 16 years old in the household have smaller effects. Built environment characteristics such as increased net residential densities and enhanced street connectivity are associated with reductions in the odds of being overweight and/or obese. Relative to socio-demographic variables, however, such built environment characteristics have a much smaller impact on describing the odds of being overweight or obese.     

Urban walkability considering pedestrians’ perceptions of the built environment: a 10-year review and a case study in a medium-sized city in Latin America

ABSTRACT

Numerous methodologies measuring walkability have been developed over the last years. This paper reviews the Walkability Index (WI) literature of the last decade (2009–2018) and highlights some limitations in the current approaches. Only a few studies have evaluated walkability in Latin America, mainly in big cities but not in medium and small-sized cities in the region, which present their own urbanisation dynamics, security issues, sidewalk invasion problems, and poor planning. Furthermore, most WIs in the literature use objective mesoscale variables to assess walkability in a given area. This paper contributes to filling these gaps by generating new evidence from a medium-sized city in Latin America to question if characteristics of the built environment encourage walking trips, as found in the literature, are transferable among regions. The study also proposes a novel index comprised of microscale and mesoscale built environment variables to assess walkability using virtual tools and considering users’ perceptions. The WI estimation relies on ranking probability models. The results of the case study suggest that subjective Security and Traffic Safety are the most crucial factors influencing walkability in these kind of cities, which is different from what is found in the literature from cities in developed countries where Sidewalk Condition and Attractiveness are the most important factors. Security appeared to be strongly associated with a subjective dimension, represented by the fear of crime or perceived risk for crime, instead of the actual occurrence of crimes. This result evidences the importance of the physical attributes of the real world and how they are captured, judged, and processed by pedestrians. Then, regional transferability of WIs needs to be done carefully. Finally, results in this paper highlight the importance of microscale built environment characteristics in the WI formulation in these cities. Results are in line with other research in some cities of the region, which found that microscale variables such as pavement quality and presence of obstacles on the sidewalks are relevant components to promote walkability.