Easing or tightening control strategies: determination of COVID-19 parameters for an agent-based model

Some agent-based models have been developed to estimate the spread progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to evaluate strategies aimed to control the outbreak of the infectious disease. Nonetheless, COVID-19 parameter estimation methods are limited to observational epidemiologic studies which are essentially aggregated models. We propose a mathematical structure to determine parameters of agent-based models accounting for the mutual effects of parameters. We then use the agent-based model to assess the extent to which different control strategies can intervene the transmission of COVID-19. Easing social distancing restrictions, opening businesses, speed of enforcing control strategies, quarantining family members of isolated cases on the disease progression and encouraging the use of facemask are the strategies assessed in this study. We estimate the social distancing compliance level in Sydney greater metropolitan area and then elaborate the consequences of moderating the compliance level in the disease suppression. We also show that social distancing and facemask usage are complementary and discuss their interactive effects in detail.

     

The Gini index of demand imbalances in public transport

Transportation - The paper studies a general bidirectional public transport line along which demand varies by line section. The length of line sections also varies, and therefore their contribution...     

厚壁球壳的杂交／混合有限元分析

本文对８一节点四边形轴对称杂交／混合元ＡＸＨＭ１６进行了系列考核：（１）考查ＡＸＨＭ１６是否含有零能变形模式，以查明它的含秩状况；（２）通过受内压作用的厚壁球壳考题，观察ＡＸＨＭ１６的转轴不变性和其它性能表现。事实表明：ＡＸＨＭ１６满足单元合理足秩的必要条件和充分条件，不含零能变形模式，单刚合足秩。数值考核表明：ＡＸＨＭ１６具有很好的位移精度和应力精度，对坐标转轴的敏感程度并不明显，且在近乎相同的     

自主神经功能检测对早期糖尿病自主神经功能损害的诊断价值

目的评价自主神经功能检测对早期糖尿病自主神经功能损害的诊断价值。方法50例2型糖尿病患者进行自主神经功能检查,即交感皮肤反应和心血管自主神经功能检测,并与30名健康人进行对比分析。结果糖尿病患者自主神经功能检测中交感皮肤反应,瓦氏比值和深呼吸时心率变异与对照组比较均有显著性差异(P<0.05),三者的异常率分别为70%,46%和50%;以交感皮肤反应的异常率最高,尤其以双下肢明显。立卧位血压差和冰水试验与对照组比较无显著性差异(P>0.05),其异常率分别为12%和16%。结论检测外周器官自主神经功能状态的方法中以交感皮肤反应的阳性率最高,可以作为检测早期糖尿病自主神经功能的常规筛选检查。     

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熵最大化方法被广泛应用于交通规划，为交通需求预测模型提供了理论依据.本文使用信息论中的熵概念描述居民出行分布，并根据最大信息熵理论提出了基于原点矩典型特征量约束条件下的出行分布模型，详细阐述了模型中各个参数的实际含义，该模型是一个普适性模型，其具体形式决定于最高阶原点矩阶数的取值，此值对模型精度及参数标定难易程度有重要影响.为确定模型参数，提出了实用的参数标定方法.由于模型中原点矩的最高阶数对模型精度有较大影响，为找到两者之间的关系，利用长春市出行调查数据研究了四种出行方式分别时应于五种原点矩最高阶数的模型拟合情况.因文中所建立的模型是一系列模型，为比较其描述问题的优劣差异，按照最大信息熵原理给出了确定系统分布的熵方法，并运用该方法对前述模型进行了比较.调查数据的验证结果表明，出行分布的信息熵模型可以正确地描述出行分布规律，熵方法可以简单有效地评价不同模型对同一问题描述的优劣差异.本文提出的熵模型和熵方法对城市交通规划具有指导意义.     

Blue growth and ocean governance—how to balance the use and the protection of the seas

The economic value of the oceans and maritime industry is strongly gaining in importance. As the oceans are very large and particularly sensitive ecosystems, which need to be preserved, a balance between the use and the protection of the seas has to be found. On this issue, the paper presents some thoughts starting with a brief analysis of what to understand by maritime industry which is labeled as blue economy, and a recapitulation of the main threats for the marine environment, caused by blue economy. After that, some noteworthy prerequisites and criteria for finding a sound balance between the use and the protection of the seas will be highlighted, especially the need for sustainable ocean governance is put to discussion.     

Rule-based control of a semi-active suspension for minimal sprung mass acceleration: design and measurement

In this paper, a rule-based controller is developed for the control of a semi-active suspension to achieve minimal vertical acceleration. The rules are derived from the results obtained with a model predictive controller. It is shown that a rule-based controller can be derived that mimics the results of the model predictive controller and minimises vertical acceleration. Besides this, measurements on a test vehicle show that the developed rule-based controller achieves a real-world reduction of the vertical acceleration, which is in agreement with the simulations.     

Clamping performance of fastener in windshield wiper assembly using theoretical and experimental methods

Improper clamping of wiper arms can cause problems in the operation of the wiper. An excessive clamping force can cause damage to the wiper arm head. On the other hand, an insufficient clamping force can cause self-loosening of the nut. Given the lack of direct research on the clamping force of the fastener in wiper assembly, this study verifies the existing clamping performance of the fastener in windshield wiper assembly by theoretical and experimental methods. The theoretical calculation results show that all the clamping performance are satisfied under the general snow load condition. However, under the critical load condition, maximum assembly preload and safety margin against slipping are in disagreement with the standard values. This problem is solved by increasing the strength grade of the bolt. The experimental results show a reducing tendency of the clamping force during the snow durability test. However, this reducing clamping force during the 60,000 test cycles is acceptable. In the case of nut reusing more than two times possibly cause a problem of its loosening because of insufficient clamping force. Therefore, it is recommended that the nut should not be reused more than two times.