A route guidance system considering travel time unreliability

Under a stochastic roadway, drivers need a route guidance system incorporating travel time variability. To recommend a customized path depending on the trip purpose and the driver’s risk-taking behavior, various path ranking methods have been developed. Unlike those methods, our proposed disutility method can easily incorporate a target arrival time in the ranking process by measuring how late the travel is and by penalizing it depending on the severity of lateness. In addition, the disutility-based route guidance system can properly address travel time unreliability that causes unacceptable disruptions to the driver’s schedule (i.e., unexpected long delay). We compare the disutility-based path ranking method with other ranking methods, the percentile travel time, the mean excess travel time, and the on-time arrival probability. We show that the disutility has stronger discriminating power and requires less solution space to find an optimal path. The most important advantage is that it can estimate a driver’s risk-taking behavior for each trip purpose by using the discrete choice analysis. We construct a simulation framework to acquire the travel time data on a hypothetical roadway. We analyze the data and show how various ranking methods recommend a customized path. Using the data, we show the advantage of the disutiltiy method over the other methods, which is generating a customized path with respect to the target arrival time by properly penalizing the travel time lateness.     

Residential mobility and location choice: a nested logit model with sampling of alternatives

Residential mobility and relocation choice are essential parts of integrated transportation and land use models. These decision processes have been examined and modeled individually to a great extent but there remain gaps in the literature on the underlying behaviors that connect them. Households may partly base their decision to move from or stay at a current location on the price and quality of the available alternatives. Conversely, households that are on the market for a new location may evaluate housing choices relative to their previous residence. How and the degree to which these decisions relate to each other are, however, not completely understood. This research is intended to contribute to the body of empirical evidence that will help answer these questions. It is hypothesized that residential mobility and location choice are related household decisions that can be modeled together using a two-tier hierarchical structure. This paper presents a novel nested logit (NL) model with sampling of alternatives and a proposed procedure for sampling bias correction. The model was estimated using full-information maximum likelihood estimation methods. The results confirm the applicability of this NL model and support similar findings from other empirical studies in the residential mobility and location choice literature.     

The regulatory cycle stalled? An assessment of current institutional obstacles to regulatory reform in the provision of road-based public transport in Cape Town, South Africa

Wide-ranging and ambitious proposals for the comprehensive transformation of public transport systems in major South African cities, including Cape Town, have now been in play for a decade or more since the country’s post-apartheid transition. To date, progress in implementing such proposals has been, at best, much delayed and, in Cape Town, appears to have stalled, and may now be significantly compromised. This paper draws on aspects of the concept of regulatory cycles in the bus transport sector to explore some of the key factors which have given rise to this situation, focusing primarily on obstacles embedded in the present institutional framework which governs the provision of road-based public transport in the city. It specifically identifies difficulties in establishing an appropriately mandated and resourced agency at the local level to drive forward the transformation project and the sustained opposition of existing, largely ‘self-regulated’ minibus-taxi operators as key factors which have obstructed the introduction of the proposed regime of ‘regulated competition’. A tentative conclusion is offered to the effect that perhaps a partial or ‘hybrid’ transformation of the public transport system may be the best - and, indeed, possibly the most appropriate - outcome of the transformation process that can be anticipated under the present and foreseeable future circumstances prevailing in the city.     

Application of probability theory to marne project appraisal

The importance of specifying and quantifying the project risks in the investment decision process cannot be overemphasized. Even more so in the context of marine project appraisal, since the shiping markets are characterized by extreme volatility and high cyclicality. The use of probability theory in investment decisions is reviewed and applications are derived for marine projects. The paper focuses on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to determine the mean and variance of the input variables. Within the Monte Carlo framework three alternative methods are used for the construction of probability distributions; the scaled halves of a normal distribution, two unscaled parts of a normal distribution and finally use of altenative distributions, such as beta, gamma and chi-square. An alternative methodology is also drawn from the literature, namely the Pearson-Turkey three point approximation, to contrast with the Monte Carlo method.     

STUDY OF EFFECT OF SURFACE-OPTICAL PHONON ON BIPOLARON IN QUANTUM-WELL WIRE

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Consequences of service reduction in municipal transit: San Francisco’s muni

Urban transit in the United States is going through a crisis of rising costs, increasing fares, falling patronage, and concomitant service reductions; typical of the pattern is San Francisco’s Municipal Railway, the agency in charge of all the City’s transit. From a basic fare of 15c in 1969, two increases brought the fare to 25c by 1972, and cut sharply into a previously stable patronage. The “Muni”, in an effort to reduce costs and meet its budgeted deficit, attempted to reduce service by ten to fifteen percent. From an analysis of the data which could be obtained, it appears that neither efficiency not equity in the City would have been served by the proposed cutbacks. The analysis draws from a variety of sources and methods in exploring the interactions within the transportation system and within the city budget.     

A dynamic shortest path algorithm using multi‐step ahead link travel time prediction

In this paper, a multi‐step ahead prediction algorithm of link travel speeds has been developed using a Kalman filtering technique in order to calculate a dynamic shortest path. The one‐step and the multi‐step ahead link travel time prediction models for the calculation of the dynamic shortest path have been applied to the directed test network that is composed of 16 nodes: 3 entrance nodes, 2 exit nodes and 11 internal nodes. Time‐varying traffic conditions such as flows and travel time data for the test network have been generated using the CORSIM model. The results show that the multi‐step ahead algorithm is compared more favorably for searching the dynamic shortest time path than the other algorithm.     

The influence of route guidance advice on route choice in urban networks

The paper begins by reviewing what is known about route choice processes and notes the mismatch between this knowledge and the route choice assumptions embedded in the most widely used assignment models. Empirical evidence on the influence of route guidance advice on route choice is reviewed and, despite its limited nature, is seen to suggest that users are reluctant to follow advice unless they find it convincing and that, the more familiar they are with the network, the less likely they are to accept advice. Typically only a small minority of journeys are made in total compliance with advice.Results from an interactive route choice simulator (IGOR) are summarised and are seen to reveal that compliance depends on the extent to which the advice is corroborated by other factors, on the drivers' familiarity with the network and on the quality of advice previously received. It is noted that the IGOR results are in a form which would enable response models to be calibrated.Recent approaches to the modelling of route choice in the context of guidance are discussed. Some are seen to make simplifying assumptions which must limit the relevance of their results; most make no allowance for the fact that drivers are unlikely to comply with all advice and several are not able to represent the benefits which guidance might bring in the context of sporadic congestion or incidents.As an alternative, a two phase model comprising a medium term strategic equilibrium and a day-specific simulation with explicit representation of driver response is proposed.Updated and extended from an earlier version published in theProceedings of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE No 425/IV-4, 1991-1).     

Safer ships, cleaner seas

P&I clubs, as shipowners' organizations providing liability insurance for the same shipowners have a particularly vital role to play in exerting peer group pressure and raising standards of safety. Solutions are, however, never as simple as one might wish; this article explores the tensions and constraints within which P&I clubs operate, analyses where they are best equipped to support the Donaldson initiative and points out that there is an inherent conflict between liberal modern society and the desire for discipline on the high seas.