Goodness-of-fit measures for probabilistic travel demand models

This paper is concerned with the assessment of the goodness-of-fit of nonlinear models of the type currently being used in the development of the disaggregate, behavioral travel demand approach. These models are emerging as a potential new technique for many transportation planning problems, although much research is yet needed before they are sufficiently developed for operational use. In order to pursue the necessary research, and also for the later assessment of operational models, it is necessary to have adequate measures of the goodness-of-fit.The paper examines the adequacy of standard measures of goodness-of-fit as applied to any nonlinear estimating equation and they are found to be inappropriate and inadequate. A little-known statistic, called the correlation ratio, is then defined and derived, and is explored as a substitute for the standard measures. In both theoretical and empirical tests, the correlation ratio is found to be a significantly more useful and appropriate measure of goodness-of-fit.Some further properties of the correlation ratio are examined, and the ratio is found to possess some degree of arbitrariness when applied to typical travel demand models. This arbitrariness, however, only impairs the usefulness of the correlation ratio in the absolute assessment of a model, but not for the comparative assessment of two or more models. Finally, a number of research tasks, relating to the correlation ratio, are identified.     

Raising commuter parking prices — An empirical study

Recently, management of parking rates has been proposed as an effective policy option to ameliorate the adverse impacts of excessive commuter automobile use in urban areas. Parking price strategies have the potential for significantly altering travel behavior in favor of high occupancy vehicles, as well as reducing congestion, energy consumption and pollution. Unfortunately, however, a paucity of empirical evidence exists regarding the impacts of parking pricing policies on travel patterns. The recent attempt aimed at eliminating federal employee parking subsidies provided a unique opportunity to take a careful look at the impacts of commuter parking price increases.In November 1979, federal employees at many government facilities in Washington, DC, and other major cities began to pay one-half of nearby commercial parking rates for government-controlled parking spaces. This paper presents the impacts of the parking price increases on commuting behavior at a sample of 15 worksites in metropolitan Washington, DC, and discusses their short term planning and policy implications. A before and after with control group survey design monitored the effects on modal shifts, automobile occupancy, and parking behavior. The results showed that removing free parking and raising parking rates (from $10 to $32 per month) influenced some significant shifts to higher-occupancy modes, but that the shifts were not uniform in direction or magnitude across the sites. In addition, the study examined how locational, travel, and employee factors influenced the modal shifts.     

A review of separate and joint strategies for the use of data on revealed and stated choices

This paper examines recent developments in household travel surveys that collect data for use in transportation planning and modeling efforts. The paper then introduces the notion of a total survey design and elaborates on what is meant by this concept. This is done first in the context of standard surveys of revealed choices. The paper discusses aspects of content and respondent burden and illustrates the potential to reduce respondent burden through careful consideration of content, question design, and question ordering. The paper also explores some issues of survey "friendliness" particularly with respect to activity surveys versus time-use surveys, with some observations about the potential of time-use surveys to eliminate some of the burden and content problems of previous diary designs. The remainder of the paper concentrates on the issue of collecting stated-response data and examines two alternative methods for collection: simultaneous collection of the contextual information and "on-the-fly" development of the alternatives for the stated-response questions, or sequential collection of contextual data and development of the stated-response questions. The paper also addresses issues of respondent burden that arise in the administration of stated-response surveys. The paper concludes with exploration of some of the reasons for collecting stated-response data, with particular emphasis on the US situation. In conclusion, the paper stresses again the need for a total design concept for collection of stated-response data, as well as for the simpler collection of more standard revealed choice data.     

What is induced traffic?

Investment in new or up-graded roads both raises the level and alters the pattern of accessibility over the whole area served by the road system. Vehicle-users will perceive the opportunities that this increased accessibility offers and respond in various ways, most of which can lead to more rather than less travel on the system. To the extent that travel increases overall, it can be said to have been induced by the road-improvement. Conversely, congestion as it spreads on the network will deter some travel and can be said to have a traffic suppression effect.The purpose of this first paper is to spell out, as clearly as possible, what is meant by induced traffic and to relate its various components to the full range of behavioural responses by travellers. In doing so, it draws upon the recently published (December 1994) report by the Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA) and response by the UK Government. The paper concludes with some of the implications of induced/suppressed traffic for current methods of forecasting and evaluation of road investment, which are covered in more detail by subsequent authors.     

PHOSPHORYLATION OF THE MYELOID ZINC FINGER PRO TEIN MZF－1 IS DIFFERENTIALLY REGULATED DURING MYELOPOIESIS

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Enhancing roll stability of heavy vehicle by LQR active anti-roll bar control using electronic servo-valve hydraulic actuators

Rollover of heavy vehicle is an important road safety problem world-wide. Although rollovers are relatively rare events, they are usually deadly accidents when they occur. The roll stability loss is the main cause of rollover accidents in which heavy vehicles are involved. In order to improve the roll stability, most of modern heavy vehicles are equipped with passive anti-roll bars to reduce roll motion during cornering or riding on uneven roads. However these may be not sufficient to overcome critical situations. This paper introduces the active anti-roll bars made of four electronic servo-valve hydraulic actuators, which are modelled and integrated in a yaw-roll model of a single unit heavy vehicle. The control signal is the current entering the electronic servo-valve and the output is the force generated by the hydraulic actuator. The active control design is achieved solving a linear optimal control problem based on the linear quadratic regulator (LQR) approach. A comparison of several LQR controllers is provided to allow for tackling the considered multi-objective problems. Simulation results in frequency and time domains show that the use of two active anti-roll bars (front and rear axles) drastically improves the roll stability of the single unit heavy vehicle compared with the passive anti-roll bar.     

Efficiency in Nigerian ports: handling imprecise data with a two-stage fuzzy approach

This article is focused on assessing the efficiency of six major Nigerian ports from 2007 to 2013 by applying a two-stage fuzzy-based methodology adequate to handle imprecise data. More precisely, fuzzy data envelopment analysis models for traditional assumptions with respect to scale returns are employed to assess the productivity of Nigerian ports over the course of time. In the second stage, fuzzy regressions based on different rule-based systems are used to predict the relationship of a set of contextual variables on port efficiency. These contextual variables are related to different aspects of port service level, berth utilization, accessibility, cargo type, and operator type. The results reveal the impact of operator and cargo type on efficiency levels. Policy implications for Nigerian ports are derived.     

Modelling the effects of physical–biological interactions and spatial variability in spawning and nursery areas on transport and retention of sardine Sardinops sagax eggs and larvae in the southern Benguela ecosystem

A particle-tracking individual-based model (IBM) coupled with a 3-D hydrodynamic model was used to investigate how spatial variability in spawning and nursery grounds may influence transport and retention of sardine (Sardinops sagax) eggs and larvae in the southern Benguela ecosystem. A temperature-dependent Bělehrádek development model based on laboratory growth data was used to determine the duration of one egg and two larval stages. Successful transport/retention depended on each particle's stage of development rather than its age. Results show that recruitment could occur in two distinct nursery areas on the west and south coasts of South Africa. Three viable recruitment ‘systems’ were identified: two are retention-based (spawned and retained on the west coast (WC–WC) or the south coast (SC–SC)) and one is transport-based (spawned on the south coast and transported to the west coast (SC–WC)). In the WC–WC system, the vertical distribution of eggs influenced retention; at intermediate depths of spawning (25–50 m) eggs avoided both offshore Ekman drift and deep cold water. In the SC–SC system, the area of spawning was important; > 50% of eggs from the eastern Agulhas Bank (EAB) were retained in the south coast nursery grounds, whereas very few eggs were transported there from west of Cape Agulhas. In the SC–WC system, area of spawning was also important; 40% of the eggs spawned on the western Agulhas Bank (WAB) were transported to the west coast nursery ground. Sardine life history strategy could be divided between two main systems: the west coast system (spawning on the WAB and WC, and recruiting to the WC) and the Agulhas Bank system (spawning on the central and eastern Agulhas Bank, and recruiting to the SC).     

The heritage coast program in England and Wales

Abstract

The Countryside Commission for England and Wales has adopted a coastal management system that identifies high‐value scenic areas and manages these as Heritage Coasts. The Heritage Coast program is a collaborative one between central and local government, with the central government providing technical expertise and half the funds and local authorities providing development control and staff. The approach has been successful in having most of the important scenic areas designated as Heritage Coasts, but has been less successful at getting active on‐ground management on the coasts. Less than half the defined Heritage Coasts have management plans or Heritage Coast staff. Reasons for the slow adoption of the program are discussed.