严峻问题

今年关于太平洋航线有两个不确定因素,即美国进口量增长将会大大放缓,同时美国出口量会继续增加.因此,几乎所有其他的问题都是不确定的:进口量是否会增长还是会减少?     

Evaluation of factors for carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta

The efficient integration of logistics modes is critical for international cargo shipping. The local transportation connecting to the export port then plays a vital role in such integration. This paper investigates the problems of carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta area, with respect to international shipping. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model is constructed based on a comprehensive industrial interviews and statistical analysis. Rather than simply ranking the given alternatives, we use AHP is used to analyse the weakness and strength of impacting factors in carrier selection. The model is implemented under different types of shipper. Seven criteria are statistically summarized from the questionnaire for evaluating eight different modes. The results are useful to those liner companies serving the PRD region in relationship to port selection and fleet deployment.     

严峻问题——经济、燃油或本、运力、码头运输工人联盟谈判产生了不确定性

今年关于太平洋航线有两个不确定因素，即美国进口量增长将会大大放缓，同时美国出口量会继续增加。因此，几乎所有其他的问题都是不确定的：进口量是否会增长还是会减少？航运公司是否会随着船只规模的增加，而为贸易业务分配更多运力，或者仅仅保持现有运力？他们是否能够成功增加运费以弥补成本的增长？发货人是否同意支付完全不固定的船舶燃油附加费？     

Interval estimation in the calibration of certain trip distribution models

This paper argues for interval, rather than point, estimation when calibrating some variants of the trip distribution “gravity” models. Analytic expressions are derived for the approximate asymptotic covariances of least squares and maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the impedance function under a variety of conditions. A comparative numerical example, and an application using migration flows, are also presented.     

Recreational Leasing of Alaska Commercial Halibut Quota: The Early Years of the GAF Program in Alaska

The Pacific Halibut Catch Sharing Plan formalized the process for allocating halibut between the Alaska commercial and recreational charter sectors. It included a new program intended to allow for “flexibility” through inter-sectoral trading, permitting charter operators to lease commercial halibut pounds to relax client harvest restrictions. Here we evaluate the first two years of lease market activity and participation. Participation from some commercial quota holders in the lease market suggests that the program provided beneficial flexibility; in fact, the number of transfers to the charter sector was greater than transfers within the commercial sector for some quota types. We also identified a high proportion of self-leasers. However, transfers to the charter sector were on average smaller than within-sector commercial transfers, and total poundage leased by the charter sector was low compared with commercial transfers. Usage of leased quota by the recreational charter sector enables the harvest of larger fish or additional fish, and provides flexibility in catch composition on halibut closure days. Finally, the value-per-pound may be higher in the charter sector, as commercial-to-charter transfer prices approached the commercial ex-vessel price.     

Development of a low-noise cooling fan for an alternator using numerical and doe methods

An alternator, which converts mechanical rotational energy into electrical energy, is an important component of a vehicle. Alternators operate over a broad range of rotational speeds, typically from 3,000 RPM to 18,000 RPM, which demands a cooling fan producing sufficient airflow, ideally with a minimum of noise. In the current study, an optimized alternator-cooling fan was developed through a linked DOE(Design OF Experiment) process and numerical analysis. The SC/Tetra and FlowNoise S/W programs were used to calculate flow rates and noise levels, respectively, for the newly developed fan. Compared with original model, the numerical results predicted a 3 dBA noise reduction; the measured reduction was 4 dBA.     

潜艇操纵性多目标优化及灵敏度分析

以潜艇操纵面的几何尺度和纵向位置为设计变量,估算归一化后的无因次水动力系数,建立潜艇操纵性指标预报数学模型.基于iSIGHT优化平台,采取NCGA遗传算法开展潜艇操纵性指标的多目标优化设计,给出改进的优选方案,并进行灵敏度分析,评估操纵面参数对操纵性指标的影响.     

双通线加热的热力学及实验分析(英文)

The present investigation deals with process analysis of oxy-acetylene flame assisted double pass line heating for varying plate thickness. oxy-acetylene flame as the heat source for multi pass line heating to achieve 3-D bending of plates with varying thicknesses was studied. The oxy-acetylene flame was modeled as the moving heat source in the FEM analysis. The transient thermal histories were predicted taking into account the temperature dependent thermo-mechanical properties. A comparative study between single pass and double pass line heating residual deformation was also carried out. The temperature distribution and residual deformations predicted by the numerical model developed in the present work compared fairly well with those of the experimental ones.     

Minimum Efficient Scale (MES) and preferred scale of container terminals

The decision on the scale of a port terminal affects the terminal’s managerial, operational and competitive position in all the phases of its life. It also affects competition structures in the port in which the terminal is operating, and has a potential impact on other terminals. Port authorities and terminal operators need to know the scale of the terminal when engaging in concession agreements. In economic theory the scale of a plant/firm is typically defined in relation to the Minimum Efficient Scale (MES), the long-run output where the internal economies of scale are fully exploited. However, there are a number of theoretical and empirical indications that in ports the scale of a terminal is commonly guided by a combination of the MES and other determining factors. The “preferred” scale is the result of a complex interaction between the MES, the port governance framework and objectives, the market size and structure, technological change and operational considerations, physical and geographical limitations, and the business patterns of shipping lines. This study analyses the factors resulting in a preferred container terminal scale that in most of the times is different from the MES. The analysis of the technical, market-related and governance-related factors is supported by theoretical and empirical insights that illustrate the presence of a range of actual ”preferred” scales of terminal concessions that usually are different, below or above, MES.