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21.
The robustness of questionnaire results to various forms of bias are explored in the context of a dual-mode (web and hardcopy) survey of employers’ anticipations of levels of employee commuting and business travel activity under a range of future ICT scenarios. The questionnaire incorporated several innovative features which, together with the dual-mode format, allowed an unusually wide range of analyses. For example: the robustness of respondents’ opinions was tested by examining the effect of incorporating alternative versions of a briefing text, one being very positive and one very negative, about the role of ICT; instrument bias was identified via detailed comparison of the results from the two versions of the questionnaire; and the impact of exogenous factors which are often ignored or taken as constant was assessed via special supplementary questions. Analysis showed that the robustness of opinions and expectations varied and was influenced by respondent characteristics, and that results from the two versions of the questionnaire differed significantly. It is concluded that opinions and expectations are less robust, and questionnaire results are more subject to bias and myopic interpretation, than is generally recognised and that web-based surveys seem particularly vulnerable to sampling bias. Methods are suggested for measuring robustness, for reducing bias and for validating and contextualising results. The use of contrasting briefing texts is recommended as a means of establishing the robustness of opinions and expectations while supplementary questions are recommended for validating and contextualising SP and SE exercises.
Peter BonsallEmail:

Peter Bonsall   Professor of Transport Planning at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. His research interests include: use of innovative data sources, microsimulation, multi-criteria appraisal of policy interventions, travellers’ perception of modal attributes, their ability to cope with uncertainty and complexity and their response to new information and charges. Jeremy Shires   Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. His research interests include behavioural modelling, the impact of “soft factors” on travel, stated preference design and public transport demand modelling.  相似文献   
22.
Stated preference (SP) experiments are becoming an increasingly popular survey methodology for investigating travel behaviour. Nevertheless, some evidence suggests that SP experiments do not mirror decisions in real markets. With an increasing number of real world decisions made using the internet, an opportunity exists to improve the realism of the SP counterparts of such choices by aligning the choice environment with such online portals. In this paper, we illustrate the benefits of such an approach in the context of air travel surveys. Our survey is modelled on the interface and functionality of an online travel agent (OTA). As with a real OTA, many ticket options are presented. Sort tools allow the options to be reordered, search tools allow options to be removed from consideration, and a further tool allows attributes to be hidden and shown. Extensive use of these tools is made by the 462 respondents. A traditional SP component was also completed by the respondents. Our exploratory analysis as well as random utility model estimation results confirm not only that respondents seem to engage more actively with the interactive survey, but also that the resulting data allows for better performance in model estimation compared to a more conventional SP experiment. These results have implications for the study of other complex travel choices where interactive surveys may similarly be preferable to standard approaches.  相似文献   
23.
Water bursts during tunnel construction endanger construction, and it is therefore necessary to reserve a waterproof dike with the required thickness to avoid water bursts and to take reinforcement of the dike and treatment of the structure liable to trigger a water burst. Using the water burst at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel of the Shanghai-Chengdu expressway as an example, and considering the type of tunnel section and the upright mudstone of the dike, the waterproof dike at the work face is simplified as a round thin plate. A formula for the calculation of a minimum safety thickness for the critical waterproof dike is deduced by analyzing the force applied on the water-proof dike, and the minimum safety thickness for the water burst section at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel is cal-culated. The numerical simulation analysis demonstrates the critical thickness of waterproof dike at K5+398 of the Mingyueshan tunnel is 1.4-1.55 m, and the calculated water inflow and water burst basically agree with the actual condition. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.  相似文献   
24.
In order to study the diffusion law of grouting slurry in the water-rich sand layer under flowing water conditions, a grouting test model consisting of a main test system, a grouting system, and a measurement system was developed. And for detecting the diffusion scope of the grouts, a new resistivity method was proposed. It is found that the relationship between grouting pressure and grouting rate during the test is strong. Under hydrodynamic conditions, the grouting slurry diffuses elliptically. Due to gravity and the effect of the upper water flow, the center of gravity of the ellipsoid is below the grouting outlet, and the grouting effectively improves the physical and mechanical properties of water-rich sand bodies. At the same time, the resistivity method has a good application effect on the detection of grouting diffusion range. The range of slurry diffusion obtained by the resistivity method is basically consistent with the boundary of the stone body after excavation, indicating that the resistivity method is reliable for detection of grouting range in dynamic water-rich sand layer. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.  相似文献   
25.
Yu T.  Li J.  Jing L.  Xu S.  Xu J. 《现代隧道技术》2018,(6):33-41and52
The problems of TBM construction data loss, information barriers and absence of data mining have con⁃ strained the advancement of basic technologies in TBM field. Aimed at building a cloud computation platform for TBM operation information, a new concept of 3B, i. e. Born by digit, Born in format and Born to the cloud, was pre⁃ sented, the issues of information acquisition, transmission and storage during TBM operation were solved, and massive heterogeneous information intelligent transmission system and big data warehouse of TBM group were established. A structure model of cloud computation platform was designed by taking Hadoop system as ecosphere, and a cloud computation platform was built to deploy related algorithm, realizing on-line monitoring and data sharing, further⁃ more the data law mining of interaction of rock mass versus TBM machine was conducted based on big data tech⁃ nique, exploring the development direction of the information platform. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.  相似文献   
26.
Within the literature concerned with aspects of competitiveness, innovation and strategic management of industrial clusters, the body regarding forecasting of strategic management is still nascent. This work aspires to render a contribution within the domain of strategic management forecasting, through the indicative case of European maritime clusters. For this end, a two-tier model is formulated. A quantitative strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) methodology that derives from the fusion of a quondam situation analysis and crosstabs’ theory is generated. This leads to the utilization of the crosstab’s conditional probabilities as transition probabilities; the latter are called to compile the transition matrix of a Markov chain. Through this methodology, and the successive Markov chain’s transition matrices, strategic forecasts are extracted for a devised European maritime cluster case. This work relinquishes a novel application with respect to strategic management forecasting, that provides a dichotomy of practical interpretations and scenarios for quantitative situation analysis. Thus, it may enable effective real-time decision-making for strategic management and/or policy drafting. The situation analysis forecasting model may find applicability in a plethora of practical and theoretical cases, wherein forecasting may be desirable. It may as well pertain to an intrinsic methodology for situation analysis forecasting of maritime clusters.  相似文献   
27.
Dynamics of inorganic nutrient species in the Bohai seawaters   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
Within the frame of a Sino-German Joint Research Program, two cruises of “R/V Dong Fang Hong 2” were carried out in September–October 1998 and April–May 1999, respectively, to understand the dynamics of nutrients in the Bohai. Nutrient species (NO3, NO2, NH4+, PO43− and SiO32−) are determined colorimetrically on board for five anchor and 30 grid stations. In situ incubation experiments are performed to determine planktonic nutrient uptake and benthic exchange flux. Nutrient concentrations display short-term variability and seasonal change in the Bohai, with higher levels in shallow coastal waters than in the Central Bohai. The influence of riverine discharge on nutrient levels can be seen from salinity isopleths, nutrient distribution and species ratios. Near-bottom (nb) waters have similar nutrient concentrations as to the surface waters in the Central Bohai, whereas stratification takes place in the Bohai Strait and North Yellow Sea. In situ incubation experiments provide evidence that the uptake ratio (i.e. N, P) by phytoplankton is proportional to the ratios among nutrient species in ambient waters. Based on the data of this study and previously publications, a preliminary estimate of nutrient budgets via riverine input and atmospheric deposition is established. The results indicate that atmospheric deposition gains importance over rivers in delivering nutrients into the Bohai and sustain the new production, following recent decrease in riverine inflow caused by drought periods in North China and damming practices. A historical review of nutrient data indicates that concentrations of nitrogen increase and phosphorus and silica decrease in the Central Bohai over last 40 years. This potentially has an important influence on the health of ecosystem in Bohai (e.g. food web and community structure), though further study is needed to examine the scenario in more detail.  相似文献   
28.
Sandy sediments in shallow coastal waters of the Baltic Sea are often characterised by large numbers of biogenic structures which are produced by macrozoobenthos species. A series of experiments was devised to quantify how the interaction of such structures with the near-bed flow regime affects the sediment flux. Most experiments were done with simplified replicates of structures generated by typical species commonly found in the Mecklenburg Bight, starting with solitary structures and regularly-spaced arrays in a range of characteristic population densities, followed by a complex benthic macrofauna community, both artificial and alive. A laboratory flume channel, equipped with an acoustic Doppler flow sensor and a topography scanning laser, was used for high-resolution measurements (2 mm horizontal step size and 0.3 mm vertical resolution) of sand erosion (220 µm median grain size, at 20 cm s− 1) and fine particle deposition (8 µm grain size, at 5 cm s− 1). Sediment transport threshold values were measured for each layout. As a rule-of-thumb, both the erosion fluxes and the deposition of suspended matter increased considerably at low population densities (below 2%, expressed as percent of the sediment surface covered, i.e. roughness density RD). Above densities of 4%, erosion almost stopped inside the test arrays, and deposition remained well below the level of unpopulated areas. An attempt to extrapolate these findings to field conditions (using field current velocity data from 2001) showed that the net flux switched from erosion to deposition for densities above 5%. These parameters can now be integrated into a numerical sediment transport model coupling waves, currents, sediment dynamics and biological processes, which is currently under construction at the Baltic Sea Research Institute (IOW), Rostock, Germany.  相似文献   
29.
Time-series samples of settling particles were collected in the water column of Gaoping (formerly spelled Kaoping) Submarine Canyon (KPSC) with two sediment traps on taut-line moorings deployed at two different depths (60 and 280 m) between May 26 and June 27, 2004. Average total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations of upper and lower trap array samples were 310 ± 61 ng g− 1 dw (range: 200–440) and 240 ± 36 ng g− 1 dw (range: 180–290), respectively. Principal component analysis results suggest that PAH sources in the trap-collected particles included diesel vehicle/coal burning, diagenetic sources, and petroleum release. PAH downward fluxes based on settling particles were estimated to be 12–44 μg m− 2 d− 1. These values are higher than those reported in the literature for most coastal areas. During the sampling period, both traps were significantly tilted by tidal current and fluctuated vertically. The upper traps experienced greater vertical movements, thus their particle characteristics (e.g., POC, particle mass, and fine particle fraction) varied more than those of the lower traps. Hourly depth variations of the tilted sediment trap array were echoed by the corresponding total PAH concentrations. Moreover, the PAH composition of the collected particles was related to the flow direction and speed. These observations suggest that PAHs can be used as an effective chemical tracer for the transport of terrestrial and marine particulates in a complex aquatic environment like Gaoping (Kaoping) Submarine Canyon.  相似文献   
30.
This paper examines the vibration characteristics and vibration control of complex ship structures. It is shown that input mobilities of a ship structure at engine supports, due to out-of-plane force or bending moment excitations, are governed by the flexural stiffness of the engine supports. The frequency averaged input mobilities of the ship structure, due to such excitations, can be represented by those of the corresponding infinite beam. The torsional moment input mobility at the engine support can be estimated from the torsional response of the engine bed section under direct excitation. It is found that the inclusion of ship hull and deck plates in the ship structure model has little effect on the frequency-averaged response of the ship structure. This study also shows that vibration propagation in complex ship structures at low frequencies can be attenuated by imposing irregularities to the ring frame locations in ships. Vibration responses of ship structures due to machinery excitations at higher frequencies can be controlled by structural modifications of the local supporting structures such as engine beds in ships.  相似文献   
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