Coastal erosion and sea level rise: Implications for ocean beach and San Francisco's westside transport project

Abstract

One of the consequences of sea level rise resulting from the greenhouse effect is increased coastal erosion. This article discusses a model of erosion that can be used to estimate the response of beaches to sea level rise. The model is applied to Ocean Beach, California, with particular attention to the consequences of accelerated erosion for the San Francisco Westside Sewer Transport. Results obtained show that erosion produced by accelerated sea level rise could cause substantial damage to the structure. Large expenditures on beach nourishment will be required to protect the transport and the recreational value of the beach.     

Observations on colony formation by the cosmopolitan phytoplankton genus Phaeocystis

Few marine phytoplankton have heteromorphic life cycles and also often dominate the ecosystems in which they occur. The class Prymnesiophyceae contains a notable exception: the genus Phaeocystis includes three species that form gelatinous colonies but also occur within their ranges as solitary cells. Phaeocystis antarctica and P. pouchetii are exclusively high latitude taxa, and are notable for regionally tremendous blooms of the colony stage. P. globosa occurs circumglobally, yet its colony blooms primarily are confined to colder waters within its range. Three additional species are warm water forms that have been reported only as solitary cells or loose aggregations that bear little resemblance to the organized colonies of the other taxa. Interpretation of existing data indicates that resource availability (light, temperature and nutrients) by itself is not sufficient to explain this distinction between cold-water colony-forming taxa and warm water solitary cell taxa, nor why colony development in P. globosa is essentially a spatially restricted phenomenon within a much broader geographic range. Colony development by P. globosa in situ has been observed at temperatures ≥20 °C, but only rarely and generally under conditions of seasonally or anthropogenically elevated nutrient supply. Data presented here demonstrate colony development at 20–22 °C in natural plankton communities from oligotrophic waters that were pre-screened through 63 μm mesh (i.e. lacking mesozooplankton and large microzooplankton), but not in unscreened communities containing microzooplankton and >63 μm zooplankton. Reduction of colony proliferation at higher temperatures by mesozooplankton grazing remains as an intriguing possibility that is consistent with available evidence to help explain differences in latitudinal extent of in situ colony development. These data are interpreted within a theoretical framework regarding the potential advantages and disadvantages of the two life cycle stages.     

A study of vibration and vibration control of ship structures

This paper examines the vibration characteristics and vibration control of complex ship structures. It is shown that input mobilities of a ship structure at engine supports, due to out-of-plane force or bending moment excitations, are governed by the flexural stiffness of the engine supports. The frequency averaged input mobilities of the ship structure, due to such excitations, can be represented by those of the corresponding infinite beam. The torsional moment input mobility at the engine support can be estimated from the torsional response of the engine bed section under direct excitation. It is found that the inclusion of ship hull and deck plates in the ship structure model has little effect on the frequency-averaged response of the ship structure. This study also shows that vibration propagation in complex ship structures at low frequencies can be attenuated by imposing irregularities to the ring frame locations in ships. Vibration responses of ship structures due to machinery excitations at higher frequencies can be controlled by structural modifications of the local supporting structures such as engine beds in ships.     

Situation analysis forecasting: the case of European maritime clusters

Within the literature concerned with aspects of competitiveness, innovation and strategic management of industrial clusters, the body regarding forecasting of strategic management is still nascent. This work aspires to render a contribution within the domain of strategic management forecasting, through the indicative case of European maritime clusters. For this end, a two-tier model is formulated. A quantitative strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) methodology that derives from the fusion of a quondam situation analysis and crosstabs’ theory is generated. This leads to the utilization of the crosstab’s conditional probabilities as transition probabilities; the latter are called to compile the transition matrix of a Markov chain. Through this methodology, and the successive Markov chain’s transition matrices, strategic forecasts are extracted for a devised European maritime cluster case. This work relinquishes a novel application with respect to strategic management forecasting, that provides a dichotomy of practical interpretations and scenarios for quantitative situation analysis. Thus, it may enable effective real-time decision-making for strategic management and/or policy drafting. The situation analysis forecasting model may find applicability in a plethora of practical and theoretical cases, wherein forecasting may be desirable. It may as well pertain to an intrinsic methodology for situation analysis forecasting of maritime clusters.     

On the application of hydraulic theory to the deep-water flow through the Irbe Strait

A flow-dependent critical-point method for investigating topographically controlled flow in natural channels is applied to the bottom current through the Irbe Strait connecting the Baltic proper and the Gulf of Riga. This approach is based on the functional formalism due to Gill [Gill, A.E., 1977. The hydraulics of rotating-channel flow. J. Fluid Mech., 80, 641–671.], and here is used for the stratified flow structure observed during the IRBEX-95 field campaign. A critical section of the realizable flow regime was found to be located slightly downstream of the most pronounced horizontal constriction of the channel. The predicted baroclinic volume flux 7200 m³ s⁻¹ overestimates the observed mean bottom-water transport by around 30%, a discrepancy which most likely can be explained by the lack of sea level conditions and friction in the model.     

Modelling inter-urban transport flows in Italy: A comparison between neural network analysis and logit analysis

In the present paper a modal split problem is analysed by means of two competing statistical models, the traditional logit model and the new technique for information processing, viz. the feedforward neural network model. This study aims to explore the modal split between rail and road transport modes in Italy in relation to the introduction of a new technological innovation, the new High-Speed Train. The paper is sub-divided into two major parts. The first part offers some general considerations on the use of neural networks in the light of the increasing number of empirical applications in the specific area of transport economics. The second part describes the Italian case study by using the two above mentioned statistical models. The results highlights the fact that the two adopted models, although methodologically different, are both able to provide a reasonable spatial forecasting of the phenomenon studied. In particular, the neural network model turns out to have a slightly better performance, even though there are still critical problems inherent in its application.     

European freight transport and the environment: empirical applications and scenarios

Environmental issues have received a prominent place in transport policies of most European countries. The coordination of such policies however, is fraught with many difficulties. The increasing freight flows after the European integration are a source of concern, but have not yet led to straightforward and effective environmental strategies.The paper focuses on the Trans Alpine freight transport systems in the light of the future integration of single national transport systems into the European transport network. The environmental, social and institutional peculiarities of this ‘region’ have favoured—in the past—the development of strong nationally-oriented policies, partly in contrast with the goals promoted by the European Union. The present analysis aims to highlight opportunities, and limits inherent, in the implementation of various infrastructure projects oriented towards a drastic change of the Alpine transport systems structure. The Alpine countries, viz. Austria and Switzerland, play a central role in the promotion of environmental benign modes of transport of goods, with a clear focus on rail. The route choice and modal split of freight flows in Europe are taking place simultaneously. In this paper the results of European freight flow models (based on logit analysis and neural networks) will be presented. An important exercise is then to assess the consequences of various types of eco-taxes on road transport in Europe. In this context, several policy scenarios will be dealt with.     

Devising business strategy for railways

This paper presents a case study which tackles a general problem for railway management, namely the formulation of a strategy to improve business financial performance. This is prefaced, in Section 2, by discussion of general principles - concerning the type of information system required, investigations to be conducted and associated measurement needs. The case study, of Section 3, concerns our investigations of VicRail's total business and its constituents. The task of financial improvement is revealed from an assessment of sectors' current cost-recovery positions and the identification of system joint costs. For freight sectors, future traffic prospects, pricing possibilities and the scope for more efficient operations are then considered, and the implications traced for overall deficit reduction and the development of business strategy. The concluding section draws some general lessons for railway managements.A fuller discussion by the authors of the theoretical framework employed, and particularly of the case study application, is contained in a complimentary publication: Improving Railway Financial Performance, published by Gower in January 1985.Transmark is a subsidiary of the British Railways Board, acting as its international consultancy. The authors, who were respectively study director and manager, wish to thank Bernard Warner (an independent consultant), Richard Eccles (of Transmark) and Adrian Balkyn-Rackowe (of British Rail) for their valuable contributions. The study report, titled Rail Cost — Pricing Options, was released by the Minister in April 1981.     

Use of an activity-based diary to collect household travel data

The paper describes the results of a pilot survey that used a one-day activity diary to collect origin-destination data, as opposed to a travel-based diary. The design of the diary is discussed, together with a comparison to a more conventional travel diary. The paper examines the extent to which the activity diary appears to have been capable of collecting good travel data that is at least comparable to travel diary efforts. In addition, a substantial portion of the paper is concerned with a comparison of the retrieval methods for the diaries. Two alternative methods were pilot-tested, one being the use of telephone retrieval and the other being mailback retrieval. Although the pilot test used small samples, the evidence appears to be strong that mailback is preferable to telephone retrieval, while telephone retrieval did not seem capable of providing some of the benefits often ascribed to it.