Integrated Environmental Modeling and Assessment of Coastal Ecosystems: Application for Aquaculture Management

This article presents an approach that couples coastal ecosystem modeling with integrated environmental assessment methodologies to support coastal management. The focus is to support the development of an ecosystem approach to aquaculture management including interactions with watershed substance loading. A Chinese bay, with intense aquaculture and multiple catchment uses, and where significant modeling efforts were undertaken is used as a case study. The ecosystem model developed for this bay is used to run scenarios that test the local management strategy for nutrient reduction. The corresponding ecological and economic impacts of the managers’ scenarios are analyzed by means of the Differential Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (ΔDPSIR) analysis. Emphasis is given to the analysis of the eutrophication process in the bay including present eutrophic condition and the expected changes due to the simulated scenarios. For this purpose, the Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status (ASSETS) screening model is a valuable tool to interpret and classify the data and model outputs regarding eutrophication condition and to evaluate the manageable level of the nutrient loading entering in the bay.     

Using structural equations modeling to unravel the influence of land use patterns on travel behavior of workers in Montreal

This paper addresses the relations between travel behavior and land use patterns using a Structural Equations Modeling (SEM) framework. The proposed model structure draws on two earlier models developed for Lisbon and Seattle which show significant effects of land use patterns on travel behavior. The travel behavior variables included here are multifaceted including commuting distance, car ownership, the amount of mobility by mode (car, transit and non-motorized modes), both in terms of total kilometers travelled and number of trips. The model also includes a travel scheduling variable, which is the total time spent between the first and last trips to reflect daily constraints in time allocation and travel.The modeled land use variables measure the levels of urban concentration and density, diversity, both in terms of types of uses and the mix between jobs and inhabitants/residents, the transport supply levels, transit and road infrastructure, and accessibility indicators. The land use patterns are described both at the residence and employment zones of each individual included in the model by using a factor analysis technique as a data reduction and multicollinearity elimination technique. In order to explicitly account for self selection bias the land use variables are explicitly modeled as functions of socioeconomic attributes of individuals and their households.The results obtained show that people with different socioeconomic characteristics tend to work and live in places of substantially different urban environments. But besides these socioeconomic self-selection effects, land use variables significantly affect travel behavior. More precisely the effects of land use are in great part passed thru variables describing long term decisions like commuting distance, and car ownership. These results point to similar conclusions from the models developed for Lisbon and Seattle and thus give weight to the use of land use policies as tools for changing travel behavior.     

Numerical simulation of transient bulk queues with general vehicle dispatching strategies

Relatively simple iterative procedures are developed for simulating the queue length distribution for transient bulk arrival, bulk service queues. The method allows the study of holding strategies where the length of time a vehicle is held can depend on both the length ofthe queue and how long the vehicle has been held. The system is modeled in discrete time, and a series of numerical experiments are presented that examine the errors introduced by this discretization.     

固定修复基牙邻面龋坏治疗洞型设计的探讨

目的　探讨增加固定修复基牙强度、较少磨除基牙组织的洞型设计。方法　收集完整的离体上下颌第一、二磨牙 1 80颗 ,分为 9组 ,每组 2 0颗。Ⅰ组为对照组 (完整牙 ) ,Ⅱ～Ⅸ组分别制备具有临床代表意义的洞型。常规充填后 ,分别进行抗折负荷测试。结果　抗折负荷邻颈洞型较邻颈牙合浅洞型大 2 4 2 % ,邻颈、牙合洞型较邻颈牙合深洞型大 5 0 8% ,邻面洞型较邻牙合浅洞型大 9 8% ,邻、牙合洞型较邻牙合深洞型大 2 1 % ,邻牙合深洞型较邻颈牙合深洞型大 2 4 9%。结论　对基牙邻面龋坏 ,特别是邻面颈部龋坏 ,争取就自然洞型完成充填 ,能显著增加其抗折强度 ;必须经牙合面行根管治疗时 ,邻牙合面分开洞型 ,能明显增加抗折负荷。     

Using stop bar detector information to determine turning movement proportions in shared lanes

Turning vehicle volumes at signalized intersections are critical inputs for various transportation studies such as level of service, signal timing, and traffic safety analysis. There are various types of detectors installed at signalized intersections for control and operation. These detectors have the potential of producing volume estimates. However, it is quite a challenge to use such detectors for conducting turning movement counts in shared lanes. The purpose of this paper was to provide three methods to estimate turning movement proportions in shared lanes. These methods are characterized as flow characteristics (FC), volume and queue (VQ) length, and network equilibrium (NE). FC and VQ methods are based on the geometry of an intersection and behavior of drivers. The NE method does not depend on these factors and is purely based on detector counts from the study intersection and the downstream intersection. These methods were tested using regression and genetic programming (GP). It was found that the hourly average error ranged between 4 and 27% using linear regression and 1 to 15% using GP. A general conclusion was that the proposed methods have the potential of being applied to locations where appropriate detectors are installed for obtaining the required data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic network equilibrium for daily activity-trip chains of heterogeneous travelers: application to large-scale networks

Applications of dynamic network equilibrium models have, mostly, considered the unit of traffic demand either as one-way trip, or as multiple independent trips. However, individuals’ travel patterns typically follow a sequence of trips chained together. In this study we aim at developing a general simulation-based dynamic network equilibrium algorithm for assignment of activity-trip chain demand. The trip chain of each individual trip maker is defined by the departure time at origin, sequence of activity destination locations, including the location of their intermediate destinations and their final destination, and activity duration at each of the intermediate destinations. Spatial and temporal dependency of subsequent trips on each other necessitate time and memory consuming calculations and storage of node-to-node time-dependent least generalized cost path trees, which is not practical for very large metropolitan area networks. We first propose a reformulation of the trip-based demand gap function formulation for the variational inequality formulation of the Bi-criterion Dynamic User Equilibrium (BDUE) problem. Next, we propose a solution algorithm for solving the BDUE problem with daily chain of activity-trips. Implementation of the algorithm for very large networks circumvents the need to store memory-intensive node-to-node time-dependent shortest path trees by implementing a destination-based time-dependent least generalized cost path finding algorithm, while maintaining the spatial and temporal dependency of subsequent trips. Numerical results for a real-world large scale network suggest that recognizing the dependency of multiple trips of a chain, and maintaining the departure time consistency of subsequent trips provide sharper drops in gap values, hence, the convergence could be achieved faster (compared to when trips are considered independent of each other).