A simulation optimization approach for solving the dual-cycling problem in container terminals

Dual cycling is an operation technique whereby quay cranes perform loading and unloading operations simultaneously in the same ship bay. In this article, a mixed-integer programming model for quay crane dual-cycling scheduling is developed. The model considers the stowage plan of outbound containers and the operation sequence of quay cranes. To solve the model, a heuristic method, called bi-level genetic algorithm, is designed. Meanwhile, a simulation optimization method integrating the intelligent decision mechanism of the optimization algorithm and evaluation function of simulation model is proposed. Numerical experiments indicate that dual cycling can reduce the operation time of quay cranes compared to the method of scheduling loading and unloading separately. Moreover, the model and algorithms developed in this article can tackle quay crane dual-cycling problem efficiently.     

Measuring uncertainty in discrete choice travel demand forecasting models

In transportation projects, uncertainty related to the difference between forecast and actual demand is of major interest for the decision-maker, as it can have a substantial influence on the viability of a project. This paper identifies and quantifies discrete choice model uncertainty, which is present in the model parameters and attributes, and determines its impact on risk taking for decision-making applied to a case study of the High-Speed Rail project in Portugal. The methodology includes bootstrapping for the parameter variation, a postulated triangular distribution for the mode-specific input and a probabilistic graphical model for the socio-economic input variation. In comparison to point estimates, the findings for mode shift results in a wider swing in the system, which constitutes valuable information for decision-makers. The methodology, findings and conclusions presented in this study can be generalized to projects involving similar models.     

Innovative detector layout for automated traffic turning volume counting

Because of many advantages, loop detectors are the most common practice for obtaining data to control intersections. However, they have some drawbacks, including the fact that multiple detectors are usually required to monitor a location. The current practice in many cities is to install four consecutive loop detectors per lane, or two at the stop bar and one as an advanced detector. In some cities, there are also departure detectors. All these configurations have some practical problems and do not produce accurate counts especially in shared lanes. In this paper, a new placement configuration for departure detectors is proposed and named the mid‐intersection detector (MID). In this configuration, departure detectors are moved back to the middle of the intersection in such a way that they can be activated by more than one movement at different times. In some cases, departure detectors lack equations for calculating turning movements, a problem solved by MIDs because each movement passes more detectors along its path (without increasing the number of loops), and therefore they can produce more accurate and reliable data for obtaining turning movement counts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

隧道衬砌结构可靠指标计算方法的研究

本文采用有限元－响应面法及Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ模拟获得衬砌结构内力的特征参数，并以此为基础，利用五种结构可靠度分析法计算明洞与隧道衬砌结构可靠指标，经对比得出Ｔｒｙｍ法求出的隧道衬砌结构可靠指标最小，为今后进一步寻求隧道结构设计安全系数与可靠指标之间的对应关系奠定基础。     

Analysis of thirty years evolution of urban growth,transport demand and supply,energy consumption,greenhouse and pollutants emissions in Greater Cairo

The objective of the paper is to analyze evolution of urbanization, transport demand and supply in Greater Cairo (GC) over the last three decades of the 20th century. This is in addition to investigating the impact of city growth on energy consumption and emissions from transport. It utilizes results of 1971, 1978, 1987, 1998 and 2001 travel demand surveys, undertaken during the corresponding GC transport studies; each was published a year or two later. No further transport studies have been carried out in GC over the past decade and in view of the current political situation, it is not envisaged that similar studies will be undertaken in the near future. The analysis includes the evolution of daily trips, trip purpose share, modal share and number of cars. More recent trends for 2006/2007 vehicle registration by type and size are given. The evolution of transport supply covers projects until early 2012. In parallel estimates of the evolution of energy consumption and cost, emissions of greenhouse gases (CO₂) and pollutants (CO, HC and NO_x) are given for 1971/2001. The adopted estimation methodology is summarized. Comparative analysis of relevant evolution indexes and trends of growth between 1971 and 2001, taking the former as base year, is given. Land use and transport policies and projects that in some cases helped, directly or indirectly, to reduce traffic congestion, or at least prevented an increase, are addressed, commenting on their outcomes. Thus, transferable experience are useful to sister cities benefiting from successes and avoiding drawbacks. The evolution of the impact of GC metro on energy consumption and cost, and GHG emissions is given for 1987/2001, assuming the scenario “metro did not exist”. More recent impact analysis is given for 2007/2008, as the data allowed estimating traffic volumes that would have been added to the congested metro corridors under the above scenario; and the related fuel consumption and cost and GHGs. The paper ends with conclusions on GC evolution, learned lessons and suggests repeating similar work in other mega cities of the developing countries. Further research is emphasized, e.g., modeling the relationship between land use, transport, energy and emissions; modeling emission factors by vehicle type; and studying fuel-subsidy-reduction scenarios and their socio-economic effects.     

Liner shipping service optimisation with reefer containers capacity: an application to northern Europe–South America trade

Increasing the number of vessels in a container liner service while reducing speeds, known as slow steaming strategy, has been a short-term response since 2008 to the challenges of over-capacity and the rise in bunker prices faced by shipping lines. This strategy, which reduces the fuel cost per voyage but increases the operating costs as more vessels are added to the service, is difficult to sustain when the transit time significantly affects the transportation demand. This article proposes a model applied to this situation, referred to as a case of optimal speed under semi-elastic demand, for which containerised perishable product transport is sensitive to time, while frozen and dry products are not. It investigates if slow steaming is still optimal when working to maximise the total profit on the cycle. In order to demonstrate the proposed model, a numerical application is carried out for a direct Northern Europe to East Coast of South America container service, a route selected due to the high volume of fresh products. For this application, the speed that maximises the total profit with inelastic and semi-elastic demand is then estimated for several bunker fuel prices.     

The subjective measurement of seafarers’ fatigue levels and mental symptoms

Human error is the most important factor causing many ship accidents in maritime industry despite advanced technology and international regulations. Fatigue in seafarers is a well-known problem and a serious cause of ship accidents. There are many factors unique to the marine environment raising the potential for fatigue at sea. Due to the difficulties in measuring human fatigue and also in suggesting fatigue to be a root cause of accident, it is important to devise methods to detect and quantify the fatigue and mental symptoms. In this study, ‘Piper Fatigue Scale’ (PFS) has been used for measuring fatigue level and ‘Symptom Checklist 90- Revised’ (SCL-90-R) for detecting the severity of mental symptoms. Data analyses were performed using the SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) software. According to the results of PFS analysis, a slight degree of fatigue is detected in all sub-dimensions of the scale. According to the results of SCL-90-R analysis, the distress of mental symptoms perceived by seafarers is not generally highly detected. In conclusion, the purpose of this study is to determine, by using subjective measurements, the fatigue level and mental symptoms among seafarers caused by working conditions on-board.     

IAME 2001: Contemporary research in global shipping and logistics

The establishment and implementation of a training programme requires a training needs assessment (TNA). Without this approach, more often than not, training programmes have failed to succeed and to make such an assessment the instructional designer, i.e. the person in charge for this work, needs to follow a methodology. Unlike the other industries, the port industry has neglected the use of these methodologies, which is shown by the lack of research work published in academic journals. With a view to fill the existing gap, the paper proposes a five-step TNA methodology to be used in the port industry and applies its first three steps to investigate the port training situation in the new European Union member states. To achieve this objective, the paper is structured in the following way: Section 1 puts the research work into context; section 2 addresses the role of ports; section 3. presents a port TNA methodology; section 4. explains research methodology; section 5 addresses port training issues in the new European-member states; and section 6 presents conclusions and further comments.     

3D numerical modeling of wave forces on tandem fixed cylinders using the BEM

In this paper a 3D numerical model was developed to study the complicated interaction between waves and a set of tandem fixed cylinders.The fluid was considered to be inviscid and irrotational.Therefore,the Helmholtz equation was used as a governing equation.The boundary element method（BEM） was adopted to discretize the relevant equations.Open boundaries were used in far fields of the study domain.Linear waves were generated and propagated towards tandem fixed cylinders to estimate the forces applied on them.Special attention was paid to consideration of the effect on varying non-dimensional cylinder radius and distance between cylinders,ka and kd on forces and trapped modes.The middle cylinder wave forces and trapped modes in a set of nine tandem cylinders were validated utilizing analytical data.The comparisons confirm the accuracy of the model.The results of the inline wave force estimation on n tandem cylinders show that the critical cylinder in the row is the middle one for odd numbers of cylinders.Furthermore the results show that the critical trapped mode effect occurs for normalized cylinder radiuses close to 0.5 and 1.0.Finally the force estimation for n tandem cylinders confirms that force amplitude of the middle cylinder versus normalized separation distance fluctuates about that of a single cylinder.     

A Quantitative Analysis of the Performance of Transportation Projects in Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a detailed quantitative analysis of performance metrics of a sample consisting of 89 transportation projects sponsored by the World Bank. The sample and a subset consisting of 65 projects were evaluated using the performance metrics of project cost, schedule and scope. The effect of project size (dollar value) and project duration on performance metrics was investigated. Also, the achievement of project goals and potential improvement in planning and estimating over time (the learning effect) was studied. It was found that, in general, in transportation projects sponsored by the World Bank, costs are overestimated and schedules are optimistic. The outcome with respect to cost seems counter‐intuitive because previous work by other researchers had shown a systematic underestimation of project costs. There is significant evidence that there are no efficient controls in place to predict or prevent schedule delays. The study also showed that during the past 15 years, no improvement (learning effect) was evident in project cost and duration estimation as the level of accuracy has not changed significantly. Further, it is observed that project duration did not affect the performance with respect to cost and delay.