The theory of second best in urban mass transit: Management in the public sector as a proforma exercise

This paper focuses on four issues. The first is the case of one-sided investments in mass transit in metropolitan areas of developing countries. It is pointed out that in many cases in which the conditions for optimum investment policies (Pareto's Optimum) are not maintained, excessive investments on mass transit, including large annual operating subsidies, usually lead to substantial sub-optimizations and waste of scarce financial resources. This problem is then reviewed under the light of the “Theory of Second Best” as articulated for all investment options within Welfare Economic Theory. The second issue examined is the matter of recently discovered important diseconomies of scale of large metro transit systems in developing and developed countries, and the need to retain production of transport services within small-scale production units that are well coordinated and controlled. The third issue discussed is the problem of mismanagement of most public sector transit companies and agencies. The notion that most such systems are simply administered, not managed, is being brought up and the requirements for proper management are amplified. Finally, the case of public vs. private ownership of mass transit is being discussed with a distinction between public policies of providing mass transit services and the actual production process of these services. Provision of services represents a public responsibility that belongs to the public sector. However, production of service is a techno-economic process that requires different talents and circumstances. The paper concludes with a strong suggestion for major reorientation of urban mass transit in the metro areas of developing countries towards more efficiency and higher productivity.     

Future use of stage bus services

The reasons underlying the decline of stage bus services in the U.K. over the past 30 years seem to be well understood, and the probable future trends have been projected using a quantitative forecasting model. The model considers U.K. bus services at a very aggregate level, but it breaks the demand into specific user groups: work trips, children's travel, travel by the elderly, and all other travel, and separately for households with and without a private car. Forecasts depend very sensitively on the level of economic growth assumed, since this governs the two major factors which determine public transport use — car ownership and the cost of operating the services. If the economy could recover its historic growth rates, a further substantial decline in bus use seems inevitable under most realistic assumptions. However, with the present economic outlook, a lower growth rate seems likely to persist for some time, and in this case public transport use will become much more stable in the 1990's; a tendency which would be helped if there were large increases in fuel prices. Many of the Metropolitan Counties have adopted policies of strongly restraining future rises in fares, in some cases to the extent of freezing fares in monetary terms. The effects of such policies on both patronage and subsidies are considered here, and although much of the current political attention is focussed on controlling fares, the question of balance between fares and service levels is also discussed. Lastly, it must be admitted that these predictions are based on knowledge which is largely restricted to the short-term effects of transport policies. The nature of our uncertainty about longer-term effects, and the possible size of them, is considered in terms of sensitivity-testing of the prediction model.     

An analysis of gravity model distance exponents

This study examines variations in the basic parameter of the gravity model: the distance or travel time exponent. In a conceptual examination of the exponent under ideal conditions, it is noted that the exponent will be low if either production or consumption of the phenomena is geographically concentrated. It is further noted that if all regions produce and consume the phenomena, this generally implies a large number of substitute regions, and therefore a large exponent. These three variables are made operational and related to a set of eighty exponents for 1967 commodity flows in the United States. A multiple regression model is derived and utilized to estimate the exponents. The latter are then used to reestimate the flows. The root mean squared errors are quite similar for the fitted and estimated exponents. Implications of the research appear to be consistent with variations of the exponent in the urban context.     

The Application of Linear Optimal Control Theory to the Design of Active Automotive Suspensions

Some linear stochastic control theory relevant to the design of active suspension systems subject to integrated or filtered white noise excitation is reviewed, and application of the theory to a particular problem is considered. The problem considered is the well known quarter car problem in which a control law which minimises a performance function representing passenger discomfort, suspension working space, and tyre load fluctuations is required. With full state feedback, the requirement for a formulation of the problem which leads to the system under consideration being observable and controllable is referred to, and it is shown how a well known coordinate transformation enables this requirement to be satisfied. With limited state (or output) feedback, problem formulations which will avoid potential numerical problems in deriving the optimal control are described. Example solutions are included in order to illustrate the methods.     

Marginal cost pricing of ferry transportation: a practical application

In this paper, in which the author attempts to redress the lack of attention by economists to ferry operation, a simple pricing model, based on marginal cost pricing, is developed.     

Dynamic and Vibration Analysis of a Vehicle Rear Axle System

A detailed finite element model for the rear axle system of a sport utility vehicle is developed in this investigation. The axle system is treated as a multibody system that consists of nine bodies that include the input shaft, two output shafts, the carrier and tube system, four control arms and a track bar. The rotating input and output shafts are mounted on the carrier and tube system using six bearings. The four control arms and the track bar are connected to the carrier system and the frame of the vehicle using rubber bushings. In the model developed in this investigation, three dimensional beam elements are used to develop the finite element model for the input and output axle shafts, the control arms, and the track bar. A non-conventional finite element formulation is used to develop the equations of motion of the rotating input and output shafts in order to account for the effect of their angular velocities. These equations are expressed in terms of inertia shape integrals that depend on the assumed displacement field. The inertia shape integrals are first evaluated for each finite element. The inertia shape integrals of the rotating shafts are obtained by assembling the inertia shape integrals of its finite elements using a standard finite element assembly procedure. A conventional finite element formulation is used for the control arms and the track bar. The model developed in this investigation includes the effect of the bearing stiffness, the effect of the stiffness of the helical springs of the suspension system, and the effect of the stiffness of the tires. Using the Lagrangian dynamics and the finite element method, the equations of motion of the axle system are developed and expressed in terms of the nodal coordinates of the shafts, the control arms and the track bar as well as the degrees of freedom of the carrier. This finite dimensional model is used to determine the mode shapes and the natural frequencies of the axle system. The discrepancies between several of the natural frequencies predicted using the dynamic model developed in this investigation and natural frequencies determined experimentally are found to be less than 2%. A parametric study is performed in order to investigate the effect of the axle system parameters on the natural frequencies and mode shapes. Using the modal transformation, a set of differential equations of motion of the axle system is developed and used to examine the system dynamics under given loading conditions. The solutions of the resulting equations of motion are obtained using numerical methods.     

Effect of Frame Compliance on the Lateral Dynamics of Motorcycles

The lateral dynamics of an uncontrolled motorcycle, running on a straight, level road surface, is investigated in this paper. The structural compliances in the front and the rear frames of the motorcycle are taken into account by introducing additional degrees of freedom in the analysis. The kinematics of the tires is represented by linear differential equations which are based on the taut-string model of pneumatic tires. The linear differential equations of motion are solved to yield the eigensolutions of the system. Numerical results, obtained for parameters corresponding to a Honda CB750 motorcycle, are presented and discussed.