中国出口集装箱运输市场月评(2009-3-21—2009-4-20)

本期我国出口集装箱运输需求颓势明显，3大航线货量均欲振乏力，但在多条航线2009年4月1日提价的拉动下，上海航运交易所发布的中国出口集装箱综合运价指数先抑后扬。2009年4月17日。上海航运交易所发布的中国出口集装箱运价指数报833．92点，上海地区出口集装箱运价指数报800．66点．均与上月同期基本持平。     

A risk model for the operation of container vessels

Commercial shipping of containerized goods involves certain risks for human safety and environment. In order to actively manage these risks, they must be identified, analyzed, modeled, and quantified. This requires a systematical analysis of design and operation of container vessels. Within the EU-funded research project SAFEDOR, a Formal Safety Assessment has been applied to establish the current safety level of generic container ships and to identify potential cost-effective risk control options. This paper describes a structured approach to develop the underlying high-level risk model. It is structured as risk contribution tree consisting of a series of fault trees and event trees for the major accident categories. Statistical analysis of casualty data is used to estimate the probability of occurrence. Finally, the summation overall individual risk contributions yields the current risk pro file for the operation of container vessels is presented as FN-curve.     

New highways and land use change: Results from a quasi-experimental research design

Understanding links from new highway construction or capacity expansion to regional growth patterns is crucial for transportation planners and policy makers. In this paper, we incorporate a lagged adjustment regional growth model into a quasi-experimental research design to examine the association between new highway investments and land use change in three California counties. Our study areas provide a mix of urban, small town, and exurban highway projects in order to explore the different effects across project types and geographic contexts. The central finding of this research is that while improvements in surface transportation infrastructure can have large impacts on growth patterns, the nature of the effect depends on the context of the highway investment.     

A Multi-Spoke, Three Plane Tyre Model for Simulation of Transient Behaviour

Based on the multi-spoke, single-plane, steady-state tyre model, a transient multi-spoke, three-plane tyre model is presented. This model involves updating the states of all the spokes under consideration to t+dt from the corresponding states at t. Also, a spoke base, which has lateral and longitudinal flexibilities relative to wheel hub, is included. By adding two extra planes of spokes to the original one, the effect of tyre width is built into the model. The three planes are equally spaced across the width of the tyre. The interaction with the ground of the spokes on these three planes is used to represent that of tyre elements at different locations across the width. Analytical results show good qualitative agreement with published experimental data. This model can be used to illustrate transient tyre behaviour and in simulations in which a generic tyre will suffice.     

Flexible long range planning using low cost information

Contemporary transport planning requires a flexible modelling approach which can be used to monitor the implementation of a long term plan checking regularly its short term performance with easily available data; the original model is periodically updated using low cost information and this allows the evaluation of the changes to the plan which may be required. Such an approach requires models suited to regular updating and to the use of data from different sources. Models to update trip matrices from traffic counts have been available for some time; however, the estimation and/or updating of other model stages with low cost data has escaped analytical treatment. The paper discusses this idea and formulates the updating problem for an example involving a joint destination/mode choice model under various assumptions about the nature of the available data. Analytical solutions are proposed as well as some general conclusions.requests for offprints     

Assessment of the volume of fluid method for free-surface wave flow

This study was concerned with the free-surface wave flow around a surface-piercing foil. The volume of fluid method implemented in a Navier–Stokes computational fluid dynamics code was employed. Three widely used discretization schemes for the volume of fluid method were assessed for a test case that involved general ship waves, spilling breaking waves in front of the leading edge, and bubbly free surfaces in separated regions. A single computational approach was selected for the comparison, and a grid-dependence study was carried out. The computational results were validated against existing experimental data, showing good agreement. The validation results suggest that all three discretization schemes perform well, but the best and most efficient results were obtained using the high-resolution interface capturing scheme.