An analysis of destination choice for opaque airline products using multidimensional binary logit models

We investigate how customers respond to an opaque airline product offered by a European carrier. In this opaque product design, customers are randomly assigned to travel to one of approximately ten destinations; however, for a fee they may exclude one or more destinations from the choice set (or a particular package design) prior to learning which destination they will travel to. We use a multidimensional binary logit model to predict the probability that one or more alternatives will be chosen by a customer. Results show that customers are more likely to pay to exclude destinations located close to the origin airport and destinations that speak the same language as the origin airport. Length of stay, cost of living at the destination, and measures of destination attractiveness are also found to be significant predictors for some package designs. Based on these findings, we offer general recommendations for how to design opaque packages for airline customers.     

To kill a real option – Incomplete contracts,real options and PPP

This paper is concerned with the implications of public–private partnership agreements for the execution of expansion options in road infrastructure. More specifically, it analyzes the expansion of an existing two-lane road in Sweden, and examines the real options created by an intermediate type of road with three lanes. Interpreting the results from real option analysis in the light of incomplete contract theory, this paper finds that external congestion costs might necessitate public ownership to ensure a social optimal outcome in public–private partnerships.     

Redefining activity types: Who participates in which leisure activity?

This paper analyzes the activity choices of individuals and the links between socio-demographics, daily schedules and activity attributes using a new activity choice framework. Activities are first clustered into groups based on their salient attributes, such as duration, frequency, flexibility, planning times, and number of involved persons, rather than their functional types (work, leisure and household obligations), using a K-means cluster technique. This led to the creation of several new activity groups such as “long, temporally fixed, personally flexible activities”, “short and flexible activities”. These activity groups form the choice set for the mixed logit activity choice modeling structure developed for the leisure activities in the second part of the paper. The model results reveal the significant relationships between socio-demographics, temporal characteristics, and characteristics of the schedules on leisure activity choice. The results demonstrate how changing demographics and other activities in individuals’ schedules may affect the nature of the leisure activities and present the substitution and complimentary effects that these new activity groups have on one another.     

Remoteness and accessibility in the vulnerability analysis of regional road networks

This paper considers the development of a method for network vulnerability analysis which considers the socio-economic impacts of network degradation and seeks to determine the most critical locations in the network. The method compares the levels of remoteness (or its inverse, accessibility) of localities within the study region, on the basis of the impacts of degradation of the road network on a recognised accessibility/remoteness index that can be applied to each and every location within the region. It thus extends the earlier work on accessibility-based vulnerability analysis which was limited to assessment of impacts on selected nodes in a network. The new method allows study of impacts on both specified locations (which do not have to be represented as network nodes) and the region as a whole. The accessibility/remoteness index is defined so that an accessibility surface can be calculated for the region, and the volume under this surface provides an overall measure of accessibility. Changes in the volume under different network states thus reflect the overall impacts. The method is applied to a rural region in south east Australia.     

Do parking requirements significantly increase the area dedicated to parking? A test of the effect of parking requirements values in Los Angeles County

Minimum parking requirements (MPRs) are the norm for urban and suburban development in the United States (Davidson et al., 2002). The justification for MPRs is that overflow parking will occupy nearby street or off-street parking. Shoup (1999a) and Willson (1995) provide cases where there is reason to believe that parking space requirements have forced parcel developers to place more parking than they would in the absence of parking requirements. However, to our knowledge the existing literature does not test the effect of parking minimums on the amount of lot space devoted to parking beyond a few case studies. This paper tests the hypothesis that MPRs bind for most land uses using data on suburban office, commercial, industrial and retail property sales from Los Angeles County using both direct and indirect approaches. Our indirect test of the effects of parking requirements is similar to the one used by Glaeser and Gyourko (2003). A simple theoretical model shows that the marginal value of additional parking to the sale price of a building should be equal to the cost of land plus the cost of parking construction. We estimate the marginal values of parking and lot area with spatial methods using a large data set from the Los Angeles area non-residential property sales and find that for most of the property types the marginal value of parking is significantly below that of the parcel area. In addition, we directly examine required and supplied parking and find that on average parking supplied is quite close to the required amount.     

Analysis of the effectiveness of control measures to mitigate road dust emissions in a regional network

The effectiveness of control measures to reduce road dust emissions is analyzed using a year’s data of road dust emissions collected with a mobile sampling platform and a survey of road maintenance practices in the Lake Tahoe Basin of Nevada and California US. Attributes such as sweeping practices, anti-icing, shoulder improvement, pavement condition, trackout, and abrasive material from road segments were analyzed with a feature subset selection algorithm. Street sweeping was found to be an effective means of controlling dust emissions from roads. Road dust from dirty tertiary roads served as a continuous source of suspendable material for adjacent high-speed roads in the winter time. To be most effective, emission control strategies require that not only primary roads, but all roads be swept after snow storms to recover applied abrasive material.     

Impacts of biodiesel blending on freight emissions in the Midwestern United States

We use a combination of petroleum–diesel models, datasets and tools along with biodiesel-specific corrections to create a roadway-level emissions inventory capable of evaluating spatial, temporal and scale aspects of fuel distribution options for the Midwestern US. Specifically, we compare the emissions of a year-round “low-blend” biodiesel implementation scenario, already under consideration in a variety of states, with a more strategic summer-only, interstate-only “high-blend” scenario. Our results indicate that spatial and seasonal distribution decisions do affect the overall emissions impacts of any biodiesel deployment, even those at low-blend levels. However, we also finds that changes in emissions due to biodiesel are considerably smaller than those anticipated from improvements to engine and control technologies.     

The merits of accelerated depreciation for promoting investment in clean transport technologies: A simulation study in the Australian rail freight industry

This article ascertains the viability of promoting accelerated depreciation for newly acquired locomotives and other rolling stock as a means of encouraging technological investment in more efficient and environmentally friendly assets. The study uses a tax-adjusted asset replacement model to evaluate the merits of accelerated depreciation, and then compares the outcomes with alternative incentive schemes. It also examines what would occur if various schemes were used simultaneously.     

The social context of informal commuting: Slugs, strangers and structuration

Despite considerable interest in the role of social interactions and social context on transportation, there have been very few attempts to explore specific cases of social interaction influencing transportation systems. This paper explores the social practice of slugging, an informal system of carpooling in the Washington, DC area. Slugging emerged in response to the establishment of Virginia’s High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes in the early 1970s, as single drivers picked up riders alongside the road (slugs) in order to meet the requirements for driving in the less congested HOV lanes. Drawing on the work of sociologist Anthony Giddens, as well as the sociological insights of Georg Simmel and Stanley Milgram, we suggest that the practice of slugging highlights the processes of institutionalization and structuration. This paper details how the region’s mass transportation policies and urban culture have combined to result in an institutionalized practice with particular norms and logics of behavior. We conclude that looking at specific cases where social context has affected transportation, like slugging, could provide useful insights on the impact of social context on transportation policies and systems.     

Collection, spillback, and dissipation in pedestrian evacuation: A network-based method

We present a method of predicting pedestrian route choice behavior and physical congestion during the evacuation of indoor areas with internal obstacles. Under the proposed method, a network is first constructed by discretizing the space into regular hexagonal cells and giving these cells potentials before a modified cell transmission model is employed to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow in the network over time and space. Several properties of this cell transmission model are explored. The method can be used to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow over time and space in indoor areas with internal obstacles and to investigate the collection, spillback, and dissipation behavior of pedestrians passing through a bottleneck. The cell transmission model is further extended to imitate the movements of multiple flows of pedestrians with different destinations. An algorithm based on generalized cell potential is also developed to assign the pedestrian flow.