Determinants of motor vehicle crash fatalities using Bayesian model selection methods

Motor vehicle crashes continue to result in large numbers of fatalities each year and represent the leading cause of death for young persons. In 2006, for example, there were over 42,700 fatalities associated with these crashes. Understanding the causes of these crashes and methods to reduce them continues to be of great interest to economists, public health officials, and policy makers. We present in this paper statistical models using a rich set of panel data covering the period 1980 to 2007 by state and the District of Columbia. Our choice of variables is based on an extensive literature highlighting the importance of policy, safety, demographic, and economic determinants of fatality rates.     

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作为智能交通系统的一部分,在电子信息版显示的电子交通标识,由于能够为驾驶员提供清晰、准确且易于辨识的交通信息,在世界各地得到了日益广泛的应用。本文对韩国首尔市动态交通控制系统中的电子交通标识进行评价和设计。对之前研究中设计的部分标识改进,并在实际某路段的可变信息板显示试验。此外,通过部分驾驶员对这些交通标识的辨识进行分析,对不同方案进行评价,为确定最终的标识提供参考。结果表明,现有欧洲设计和韩国设计的表示交通事故的标志辨识正确率较低（分别为10%和43.5%）;表示拥堵和交通事件的标志辨识正确率在45%至55%间;欧洲设计的雪天警告标志的辨识正确率为17.5%,韩国设计的雪天警告标志相对易于辨识（正确率75.5%）。     

Union rivalry and crew reform in shipping: A United States—Australia comparison

The national-flag fleets of most of the traditional martitime nations have, in virtually every case, been in decline in the 1980s and 1990s, despite the continued growth of ocean shipping. They have declined in terms of numbers of vessels and numbers of sea-going jobs, although not necessarily in terms of cargo carried. However, a number of those nations have responded to the changed technological and competitive conditions with some success by attempting to adjust crewing and work practices on vessels at sea. Neither the USA nor Australia has been in the forefront of such change. However, considerably more progress has been made in modernizing crewing practices and work rules in the Australian-flag fleet than in the US-flag fleet. There are a variety of reasons for this, inluding government policy. However, it is our argument that one of the principal reasons the US fleet lags behind the Australian fleet in the adoption of modern crewing practices and work rules is the much greater degree of union rivalry in the US shipping industry. In fact, while the degree of fragmentation and rivalry among unions in the Australian flag fleet has declined dramatically since 1980, their US cousins have continued, and in some ways expanded, their pattern of fratricidal behavior. First we shall discuss some of the technological and competitive imperatives that are driving human resource management practices in shipping and the crewing and industrial relations adjustments that are being made around the world to adjust to them. Then we shall indicate how the Australian and US fleets have responded to these challenges. This will be followed by a discussion of unionism in the Australian and US maritime industrics as it has devloped in the last two decades of the twentieth century. Finally, we shall draw conclusions about the impact of different patterns of unionization.     

Transportania as gulliver might have seen it

It is an honour to be asked to speak at this, the Silver Jubilee of the International Symposia in 1984, in the presence of a number who, unlike myself, were present at the first symposium at the General Motors Research Laboratories in 1959 - Gordon Newell, Martin Beckmann and, foremost of all, Robert Herman, whose work is to be recognized next week by the award of an Honorary Degree at the University of Karlsruhe. Because it is such an honour to be asked, I had no hesitation in accepting Professor Volmuller's invitation, several months ago - to address you with a causerie on a subject of my choice.     

液压减振器动态数学模型的研究

采用一种全新的数学模型描述液压减振器的阻尼力,建立完整的液压减振器数学模型。模型含有8个参数。这些参数具有明确的物理含义,可以完整描述如第1阻尼系数、泄载点以及第2阻尼因子等减振器外特性曲线。同时,这些参数直接反映减振器液压阀的结构配置和阻尼特性之间的关系。这种液压减振器动态数学模型,可为改进和优化减振器性能提供有效的数字设计工具,适用于车辆系统动力学的深入研究。该模型在专业实验室进行了充分的验证试验。试验数据和模型计算结果非常吻合。     

The impact of European climate change regulations on international tourist markets

We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to investigate the effect of various climate policy instruments implemented in Europe on arrivals and emissions for the countries concerned. We find that these schemes do not fulfil their desired effects. The introduction of aviation into the European trading system results in a fall in the number of tourists travelling into the European Union in favour of other destinations. It also causes a significant welfare loss with only a small reduction in emissions. The flight taxes in the Netherlands and the UK result in different substitution effects across destinations (depending on the zones being taxed) but both policies do have the same consequence of inducing global welfare losses and also reducing visitor numbers to the countries. We find that when these policies are combined their effects are additive. Welfare impacts are robust to variations in the underlying assumptions and changes in the scope of the taxes examined have the expected effects.