Normative framework for transit fare policy-making

This paper presents a normative model for transit fare policy-making. Key elements of the model are: establishing service policy and ridership objectives, developing an overall financial philosophy, making fare level decisions, making structural pricing decisions, and designing implementation strategies. In general, the overall objectives of a transit agency regarding service quality and ridership levels should be the main impetus behind any fare program. Identifying where transit lies on the continuum of being a public versus a private service should frame the overall financial philosophy of a transit agency. From this the specification of farebox recovery targets should follow. Deciding upon structural aspects of a fare program perhaps represents one of the most important and most frequently overlooked steps of the process. Specific cost-based and value-based fare strategies should be considered. Implementation involves making the adopted fare strategy work. Key implementation issues are: fare payment and collection techniques, necessary service changes, marketing and promotional programs, and consensus-building. The model presented calls for feedback among these steps to allow an iterative, yet comprehensive, approach to fare policy-setting.     

Monitoring urban spatial dynamics

As urban systems increase in size and diversity, the factors which influence spatial change increase in number and their interactions become more complex. Increasing emphasis is thus being placed by some governments and agencies on regular reviews of policies and programs, to ensure that they are consistent with and facilitate the evolving urban form. Consequently, the monitoring of urban transport and activity systems is of increasing importance, to aid the review processes. This paper considers the progress which has been made in and use of procedures for monitoring urban, transport-related spatial changes. The specification, estimation and presentation of appropriate indicators is briefly discussed. Experience with the use of spatial monitoring procedures on data for two Australian cities has revealed several possible implications for transport investment practice and the development of monitoring and modelling procedures. These are discussed and the paper then indicates the approach which is currently being taken at ARRB towards developing a monitoring system.     

Level crossing safety on East Japan Railway Company: Application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques

This paper describes the application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to level crossing safety on JR East, the largest of the six private railroads in Japan. The risk of a level crossing accident was defined as the product of the accident rate and the expected consequences per accident. Rail traffic volume, road traffic volume, visibility of the crossing from the road, road gradient, width of the crossing and the type of safety devices at the crossing were shown to influence the accident rate and the collective risk. The mean accident rate at all crossings was 0.74 per million trains. The accident rate was 0.59 per million trains at crossings equipped with barriers, 1.25 at crossings equipped with warning bells and 0.76 at pedestrian crossings. Crossings equipped with obstacle detectors had a lower accident rate (0.12 per million trains) than crossings without detectors (0.43 per million trains). Crossings with visibility less than 20 m had a 50% higher mean accident rate than crossings with visibility greater than 20 m. As the number of tracks increased, the accident rate monotonically increased due to the increased accident exposure. Risk assessment techniques were applied to determine the efficacy of the various level crossing safety devices. In addition to upgrading the safety of crossings, the management techniques stressed the importance of education campaigns in warning the public about the dangers of illegal crossings.     

DELAYED REPAIR OF DNA DAMAGE BY IONIZING RADIATION IN PEDIATRIC SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS AND JUVENILE RHEUMATOID

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A numerical transport model for predicting the distributions of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the southern North Sea: the sensitivity of model results to the uncertainties in the magnitudes of metal inputs

A new transport model for metals (named NOSTRADAMUS) has been developed to predict concentrations and distributions of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the southern North Sea. NOSTRADAMUS is comprised of components for water, inorganic and organic suspended particulate matter transport; a primary production module contributes to the latter component. Metal exchange between dissolved (water) and total suspended particulate matter (inorganic + organic) phases is driven by distribution coefficients. Transport is based on an existent 2-D vertically integrated model, incorporating a 35 × 35 km grid. NOSTRADAMUS is largely driven by data obtained during the Natural Environment Research Council North Sea Project (NERC NSP). The sensitivity of model predictions to uncertainties in the magnitudes of metal inputs has been tested. Results are reported for a winter period (January 1989) when plankton production was low. Simulated ranges in concentrations in regions influenced by the largest inflows, i.e. the NE English coast and the Southern Bight, are similar to the ranges in the errors of the concentrations estimated at the northern and southern open sea boundaries of the model. Inclusion of uncertainties with respect to atmospheric (up to ± 54%) and riverine (± 30%) inputs makes little difference to the calculated concentrations of both dissolved and particulate fractions within the southern North Sea. When all the errors associated with the inputs are included there is good agreement between computed and observed concentrations, and that for dissolved and particulate Cd, Cu and Zn, and dissolved Ni and Pb, many of the observations fall within, or are close to, the range of values generated by the model. For particulate Pb, model simulations predict concentrations of the right order, but do not reproduce the large scatter in actual concentrations, with simulated concentrations showing a bias towards lower values compared to those observed. A factor which could have contributed to observed concentrations, and which is not included in the model, is considered to be a substantial benthic input of dissolved lead during this winter period, coupled to a rapid and extensive scavenging of the dissolved lead to particles. Significant reductions in riverine and aeolian inputs of total Cd and Cu of 70% and 50%, respectively, consistent with aims of North Sea Conferences, are predicted to lead to minor decreases (~ 10%) in water column concentrations of dissolved and particulate Cd and Cu, except near river sources, where maximum reductions of ~ 30–40% may occur.     

Dealing with congestion from a regional perspective The case of Massachusetts

Traffic congestion has received considerable public and media attention over the past several years. However, many of the transportation and land use actions offered to deal with the congestion phenomenon focus only on a specific site or at most a subregion of the metropolitan area. This paper argues that congestion in many cases is an areawide phenomenon requiring consideration from a regional and programmatic viewpoint. A ten-point congestion-relief program developed for eastern Massachusetts is described. Actions in this program included those aimed to mitigate current congestion and avoid future congestion through land use management. Four policy areas are emphasized - providing transportation system improvements, managing transportation demand, managing land use, and managing the institutional and funding framework. The paper concludes that because of the political nature of the congestion problem, the congestion-relief program's importance lies more in the message it sends to the public that programmatic action is being taken. The paper also concludes that a regional approach is necessary thus requiring close examination of existing institutions, that demand management is an important component of the strategy, that the private sector has an important role to play, and that the long-term effectiveness of the program relates to the success of attempts to institutionalize efforts into zoning and permit procedures.     

城市轨道交通换乘枢纽大客流换乘疏散研究

从换乘设备设施、换乘乘客特性和运营组织方案3个方面分析了对大客流换乘疏散的影响。最后,以某地铁换乘站为例,针对列车不同的到达时间间隔对换乘疏散的影响进行仿真研究,并对大客流换乘疏散组织提出建议。