Integrated Environmental Modeling and Assessment of Coastal Ecosystems: Application for Aquaculture Management

This article presents an approach that couples coastal ecosystem modeling with integrated environmental assessment methodologies to support coastal management. The focus is to support the development of an ecosystem approach to aquaculture management including interactions with watershed substance loading. A Chinese bay, with intense aquaculture and multiple catchment uses, and where significant modeling efforts were undertaken is used as a case study. The ecosystem model developed for this bay is used to run scenarios that test the local management strategy for nutrient reduction. The corresponding ecological and economic impacts of the managers’ scenarios are analyzed by means of the Differential Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (ΔDPSIR) analysis. Emphasis is given to the analysis of the eutrophication process in the bay including present eutrophic condition and the expected changes due to the simulated scenarios. For this purpose, the Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status (ASSETS) screening model is a valuable tool to interpret and classify the data and model outputs regarding eutrophication condition and to evaluate the manageable level of the nutrient loading entering in the bay.     

Population ageing,gender and the transportation system

Across the globe population structures are ageing and how older men and women interact with the transport system is increasingly important in maintaining a good quality of life and inclusion in society. The paper reviews three issues: the nature of older people’s interaction with the transport system by gender; older people’s attitude to travel; and the involvement of older people as road traffic casualties. Patterns of travel in the UK show that older people are heavily dependent on car use, but in the form of more frequent but shorter journeys than younger people. This is especially so for women over 70 years old who, as passengers, are very reliant on males to drive them. Attitudes suggest that there are few obstacles to public transport use, and most agree that bus travel is good, but convenience means many prefer cars. Involvement of older men and women in serious road traffic accidents show that they have lower killed and seriously injured (KSI) rates than 17–24 year old drivers. However, those aged over 70 years exhibit a trend of increasing KSI rates. Analysis of casualty rates of drivers by type of junction, manoeuvre and environmental conditions found that some gender-age groups are overrepresented in certain accident types, including higher serious accidents rates for men, and over representation of older women when driving in poor conditions and turning right and negotiating roundabouts, crossroads and T, Y and staggered junctions. Improvement in engineering design and driver training are suggested together with the need for a greater understanding of the transportation system needs of old and very old people.     

Using structural equations modeling to unravel the influence of land use patterns on travel behavior of workers in Montreal

This paper addresses the relations between travel behavior and land use patterns using a Structural Equations Modeling (SEM) framework. The proposed model structure draws on two earlier models developed for Lisbon and Seattle which show significant effects of land use patterns on travel behavior. The travel behavior variables included here are multifaceted including commuting distance, car ownership, the amount of mobility by mode (car, transit and non-motorized modes), both in terms of total kilometers travelled and number of trips. The model also includes a travel scheduling variable, which is the total time spent between the first and last trips to reflect daily constraints in time allocation and travel.The modeled land use variables measure the levels of urban concentration and density, diversity, both in terms of types of uses and the mix between jobs and inhabitants/residents, the transport supply levels, transit and road infrastructure, and accessibility indicators. The land use patterns are described both at the residence and employment zones of each individual included in the model by using a factor analysis technique as a data reduction and multicollinearity elimination technique. In order to explicitly account for self selection bias the land use variables are explicitly modeled as functions of socioeconomic attributes of individuals and their households.The results obtained show that people with different socioeconomic characteristics tend to work and live in places of substantially different urban environments. But besides these socioeconomic self-selection effects, land use variables significantly affect travel behavior. More precisely the effects of land use are in great part passed thru variables describing long term decisions like commuting distance, and car ownership. These results point to similar conclusions from the models developed for Lisbon and Seattle and thus give weight to the use of land use policies as tools for changing travel behavior.     

An Alert System for Beach Hazard Management in the Balearic Islands

A real-time beach hazard level associated with nearshore hydrodynamics is presented in this article. The suitability of the discussed alert system is illustrated via its application to fifteen beaches in the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea) providing nearshore safety conditions for beach safety manager. The system provides daily forecasts of nearshore wave conditions using the deep water wave forecasts. The shallow water wave data (wave height, period, and direction) together with the morphology of the site (presence of bars, capes, beach type, etc.) are used to define a hazard level (low, medium, and high) associated with local conditions. The resulting hazard level is transmitted via SMS to lifeguards and local authorities for real-time beach management. The low computational cost of this system after the initial implementation and subsequent calibration results in a very suitable approach for beach management in order to mitigate risks related to local hydrodynamics.     

Bonnet weight reduction and VRU protection: Design proposals implementing non-conventional materials

The use of non-conventional and innovative materials is increasingly important in automotive design. They allow reductions in the weights of structures with consequent reductions in fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. At the same time, they ensure excellent safety levels. Once excellent results in terms of active and passive safety have been obtained, the attention of car manufacturers, and of the public opinion, is focused on the safety of vulnerable road users (VRU), pedestrians and cyclists. Some examples concerning the redesign of a bonnet with the double targets of weight reduction and pedestrian safety are illustrated. Hybrid metal/plastic and more conventional metal sheet solutions are compared. The static performance (stiffness and denting resistance), as well as the impact against a pedestrian head, are evaluated by means of FEM models along with actual regulations.     

Enhanced bus operations: The Curitiba model and its applicability to China

Buses will remain the backbone of public transport systems for some time to come because of their lower cost and higher flexibility in relation to rail transport. However, buses are perceived as being an inferior mode of public transport and do not offer as much carrying capacity as rail transport. Following the Curitiba model, this paper looks at the potential for transferring some of the key advantages of rail transport to bus operations. This involves transforming bus stops into enclosed stations, with ticket purchase and/or checking in the station and at‐grade access to vehicles. It also involves the extensive use of bus lanes. The potential contribution of transport telematics is looked at, in particular the use of smartcards for payment in a closed fare system. The potential role of the Curitiba model for China is assessed in the context of toll road construction.     

La voie étroite du « facteur 4 » dans le secteur des transports: quelles politiques publiques, pour quelles mobilités ?

Today, numerous works conclude that transport seems to be completely coupled to economic and export/import growth. Therefore, as a direct consequence of economic development, transport sits today as one of the major final energy consumers and as one of the most important sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, this situation of continuous increase in transport clearly poses an environmental problem. In this paper, we propose to asses a certain number of possible solutions through scenario building in a backcasting manner using the TILT (Transport Issues in the Long Term) model. In particular, we evaluate three different scenarios that address how technology and different public policies can contribute towards a sharp reduction in CO₂ emissions. Each scenario allows a quick comprehension of the types of results that can be obtained through different policy mixes. In sum, realistic technological hypothesis show that a 50% reduction in emissions, from the 2000 level, is a clear possibility, and that the remaining 25% reduction in emissions is possible through different types of policy mixes.