A flexible model structure approach for discrete choice models

Multi-dimensional discrete choice problems are usually estimated by assuming a single-choice hierarchical order for the entire study population or for pre-defined segments representing the behavior of an “average” person and by indicating either limited differences or a variety in choices among the study population. This study develops an integral methodological framework, termed the flexible model structure (FMS), which enhances the application of the discrete choice model by developing an optimization algorithm that segment given data and searches for the best model structure for each segment simultaneously. The approach is demonstrated here through three models that conceptualize the multi-dimensional discrete choice problem. The first two are Nested Logit models with a two-choice dimension of destination and mode; they represent the estimation of a fixed-structure model using pre-segmented data as is mostly common in multi-dimensional discrete choice model implementation. The third model, the FMS, includes a fuzzy segmentation method with weighted variables, as well as a combination of more than one model structure estimated simultaneously. The FMS model significantly improves estimation results, using fewer variables than do segmented NL models, thus supporting the hypothesis that different model structures may best describe the behavior of different groups of people in multi-dimensional choice models. The implementation of FMS involves presenting the travel behavior of an individual as a mix of travel behaviors represented by a number of segments. The choice model for each segment comprises a combination of different choice model structures. The FMS model thus breaks the consensus that an individual belongs to only one segment and that a segment can take only one structure.     

Short-line railroad managers discuss their industry

In the United States, the 1980 Staggers Rail Act created a positive regulatory environment for the creation of new short-line railroads. At present there are about 450 of these railroads that have less than 250 miles of trackage. This study asked managers/owners of these railroads two basic questions. First, what do you believe is the single most important trend that is currently taking place in your industry. The most frequently noted trend was the frustration of working with the larger Class 1 railroads. Five additional trends were also identified by the respondents. The second question asked the respondents if they thought the short-line sector of the rail industry will become more or less important in the next ten years and why. About 70% of the owner/managers believed their industry would become more important in the next decade. The most commonly expressed reason for this position is that the Class 1 railroads will increasingly specialize in mainline service only. Three other rationales were also enumerated. For the managers that thought their industry would become less important, the most noted reason was their trackage would not safely transport the newer very heavy bulk commodity freight cars.     

Jack-up conversion for production

For the production development of marginal offshore oil fields or to achieve early production in offshore fields scheduled for full production facilities a jack-up drilling rig can be converted to operate as a mobile production unit. This paper presents a summary discussion of the main aspects to be considered in the design, conversion, installation and operation of a jack-up production unit.     

The Caribbean basin: adjusting to global trends in containerization

Positioned strategically between major east-west and north-south trading routes, the Caribbean basin has become a locus of new service configurations in container shipping. Over the last decade global shipping lines have been restructuring their service networks in the region in order to integrate local services with the newly rationalized intercontinental connections. By comparing service network structures in 1994 and 2002 at three levels of organization—local, regional and global—we are able to show that although Caribbean ports are well connected to the global system, and while the total number of services has declined between the two years, those mounted by members of global alliances have increased. Moreover, services of the global carriers at the local and regional levels are on the increase. As much as the alliances are reshaping Caribbean networks, the smaller carriers are still playing a role, but at a reduced spatial scale. Parallel with the modifications to network configurations are the changes in the port system. Essentially, traffic of the most important ports in the north and western part of the basin has grown at slower rates than the ports in the south and east. These traffic changes are only partly related to network changes. It is the growth of transshipments that is driving the most important developments in port traffic and bringing to the forefront the development of hub ports. The most important are: Colon, Panama (southwest), Freeport, Bahamas (north), Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago (southeast), Kingston, Jamaica and Rio Haina, Dominican Republic (middle), and Cartagena, Colombia and Puerto Cabello, Venezuela (south).     

Adaptation of a General Multibody Dynamical Formalism to Dynamic Simulation of Terrestrial Vehicles

The development of general Eulerian dynamic formalisms for the digital simulation of multi-body systems is reviewed. The formalism of Robertson/Wittenburg is generalized to systems whose configuration includes closed loops, thereby adapting it to the dynamic simulation of terrestrial vehicles.     

RANS simulation of a container ship using a single-phase level-set method with overset grids and the prognosis for extension to a self-propulsion simulator

Steady flow simulations for the Korean Research Institute for Ships and Ocean Engineering (KRISO) container ship (KCS) were performed for towing and self-propulsion. The main focus in the present article is on the evaluation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) as a tool for hull form design along with application of state-of-the-art technology in the flow simulations. Two Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation solvers were employed, namely CFDShip-Iowa version 4 and Flowpack version 2004e, for the towing and self-propulsion cases, respectively. The new features of CFDShip-Iowa version 4 include a single-phase level-set method to model the free surface and an overset gridding capability to increase resolution in the flow and wave fields. The new features of Flowpack version 2004e are related to a self-propulsion scheme in which the RANS solver is coupled with a propeller performance program based on the infinitely bladed propeller theory. The present work is based on a close interaction between IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering of the University of Iowa and Osaka Prefecture University. In the following article, overviews are given of the present numerical methods and results are presented and discussed for the KCS in towing and self-propulsion modes, including comparison with available experimental fluid dynamics (EFD) data. Additional evaluation is provided through discussion of the recent CFD Workshop Tokyo 2005, where both methods appeared to yield very promising results.     

The use of digital filter initialization to diagnose the mesoscale circulation and vertical motion in the California coastal transition zone

A dynamical method of initializing the primitive equations is tested and used to diagnose the three-dimensional circulation associated with jets and eddies as found in the California coastal transition zone (CTZ). The initialization method, referred to as digital filter initialization (DFI), was recently developed by [Monthly Weather Review 120 (1992) 1019] for use in an intermittent data assimilation system in the atmosphere. The ability of DFI to recover the mesoscale ageostrophic circulation associated with finite amplitude jets and eddies in the ocean is first demonstrated using control data produced by simulations with a primitive equation model. The DFI method is then applied to synoptic hydrographic data collected during several California CTZ surveys in the summer of 1988. The diagnostic results indicate the existence of jets, eddies, and filaments in the CTZ domain with maximum horizontal currents of the order of 0.6 m/s at the surface. Currents associated with such jets and filaments are coherent to a depth of over 500 m. The surface currents associated with a prominent cool filament are generally confluent, and weakly convergent on average, along the 270 km offshore extent of the filament. Meanders in the jet display convergence and downwelling upstream of pressure troughs and divergence and upwelling downstream of the troughs. Maximum vertical velocities at 100 m are of the order of 10 m/day. This result is consistent with independent estimates of subduction rates made from biological studies in this and similar coastal filaments in the CTZ program.     

Valuing Estuarine Resource Services Using Economic and Ecological Models: The Peconic Estuary System Study

This article summarizes four integrated economic studies undertaken to contribute to resource preservation and restoration decisions for the Peconic Estuary System of Suffolk County, NY. Completed as part of the National Estuary Program, the studies apply distinct resource valuation methods to a wide range of resource issues. The principal goals of this article are to highlight different methodologies that may be used to assess nonmarket economic values in a coastal management context, and characterize differences in the results that one may expect from each approach. We also emphasize potential relationships among values estimated by different nonmarket methodologies, and comment on the implications of these relationships for the interpretation and use of economic value estimates.     

Lessons from a Multi-Scale Historical Reconstruction of Newfoundland and Labrador Fisheries

In this article we use a multi-scale, multi-method historical reconstruction of post– World War II social-ecological interactions within fisheries in Newfoundland and Labrador to explore the dynamics of intensification, expansion, and resource degradation in managed fisheries. Our case study draws on landings statistics, other archival information, and the Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) of fish harvesters to explore these linked dynamics at the macro, meso, and micro levels. By some measures we found large scale trends toward intensification of effort leading to over-harvesting at macro (province wide) levels. At the same time, at the local level (micro-scale) and across sectors and regions (the meso-scale), we found highly fluid fishing practices and a complex suite of stated motivations for change. As a basis for effective governance, an understanding of the dynamics of interactive restructuring in social ecological systems will require multi-scale analyses that are sensitive to this complexity.