Risk-based strategies for the next generation of maintenance and inspection programs

The maritime industry has seen an ever-increasing interest in applying risk-based approaches to better manage the integrity of ships and offshore units in service. The recent initiatives related to IMO in setting Goal Based Standards will also be reflected in justification of maintenance and inspection regimes for marine assets from a performance based standpoint. The development of risk-based strategies for the next generation of maintenance and inspection programs for various ship includes the application of Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) for machinery systems and Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) for hull structures and fixed equipment systems.     

The Caribbean basin: adjusting to global trends in containerization

Positioned strategically between major east–west and north–south trading routes, the Caribbean basin has become a locus of new service configurations in container shipping. Over the last decade global shipping lines have been restructuring their service networks in the region in order to integrate local services with the newly rationalized intercontinental connections. By comparing service network structures in 1994 and 2002 at three levels of organization—local, regional and global—we are able to show that although Caribbean ports are well connected to the global system, and while the total number of services has declined between the two years, those mounted by members of global alliances have increased. Moreover, services of the global carriers at the local and regional levels are on the increase. As much as the alliances are reshaping Caribbean networks, the smaller carriers are still playing a role, but at a reduced spatial scale. Parallel with the modifications to network configurations are the changes in the port system. Essentially, traffic of the most important ports in the north and western part of the basin has grown at slower rates than the ports in the south and east. These traffic changes are only partly related to network changes. It is the growth of transshipments that is driving the most important developments in port traffic and bringing to the forefront the development of hub ports. The most important are: Colon, Panama (southwest), Freeport, Bahamas (north), Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago (southeast), Kingston, Jamaica and Rio Haina, Dominican Republic (middle), and Cartagena, Colombia and Puerto Cabello, Venezuela (south).     

Overcoming Governance and Institutional Barriers to Integrated Coastal Zone,Marine Protected Area,and Tourism Management in Sri Lanka

One of the major barriers to addressing complex social–ecological issues through integrated coastal management (ICM) is a lack of intergovernmental coordination and cooperation (horizontal and vertical fragmentation). This article describes an effort to overcome the barriers to ICM in Sri Lanka by fostering intergovernmental collaboration and initiating adaptive governance to restore one town, Hikkaduwa, and its associated marine protected area (MPA) and coastal zone habitats. Administrators from 12 national and local governmental agencies that are responsible for aspects of coastal management in the town of Hikkaduwa participated in a series of formal and informal workshops and a week-long tour of ICM projects in the Philippines. Outcomes demonstrate that these informal and formal meetings, workshops, and travel experiences fostered trust, social capital, and attitudinal organizational commitment (AOC). The experiences motivated members to overcome vertical and horizontal governance fragmentation through the formation of an independent intergovernmental committee for the restoration of Hikkaduwa into a sustainable and resilient community. ICM activities undertaken by the newly formed organization suggest that internal leadership capacity, effective local–national partnerships, explicitly linked ecological–economic projects, and long-term commitment are necessary conditions for success. Overall, attainment of sustainability and resilience through successful ICM should be thought of as a journey and not a destination.     

Thorium-234 derived information on particle residence times and sediment deposition in shallow waters of the south-western Baltic Sea

Activities of the naturally occurring, short-lived and highly particle-reactive radionuclide tracer ²³⁴Th in the dissolved and particulate phase were measured at three shallow-water stations (maximum water depths: 15.6, 22.7 and 30.1 m) in Mecklenburg Bay (south-western Baltic Sea) to constrain the time scales of the dynamics and the depositional fate of particulate matter. Activities of particle-associated (> 0.4 μm) and total (particulate + dissolved) ²³⁴Th were in the range of 0.08–0.11 dpm L^− 1 and 0.11–0.20 dpm L^− 1, respectively. The activity ratio of total ²³⁴Th and its long-lived and conservative parent nuclide ²³⁸U was well below unity (range: 0.09–0.19) indicating substantial radioactive disequilibria throughout the water column, very dynamic trace-metal scavenging and particle export from the water column at all three stations. For the discussion the ²³⁴Th data of this study were combined with previously published water-column ²³⁴Th and particulate-matter data from Mecklenburg Bay (Kersten et al., 1998. Applied Geochemistry 13, 339–347). The resulting average vertical distribution of total ²³⁴Th/²³⁸U disequilibria was used to estimate the depositional ²³⁴Th flux to the sediment. There was a virtually constant net downward flux of ²³⁴Th of about 28 dpm m^− 2 d^− 1 leaving each water layer of one meter thickness. Thorium-234-derived net residence times of particulate material regarding settling from a given layer in the water column were typically on the order of days, but with maximum values of up to a couple of weeks. Based on an average ratio of particulate matter (PM) to particle-associated ²³⁴Th a net flux of about 145 mg PM m^− 2 d^− 1 was estimated to leave each water layer of one meter thickness. The estimated cumulative water-column-derived particulate-matter fluxes at the seafloor are higher by a factor of about 2 than previously published sediment-derived estimates for Mecklenburg Bay. This suggests that about half of the settling particulate material is exported from the study area and/or subject to processes such as mechanical breakdown, remineralisation and dissolution. Lateral particulate-matter redistribution and particle breakdown in the water column (as opposed to the sediment) seem to be favoured by (repeated) particle resuspension from and resettling to the seafloor before ultimate sedimentary burial. The importance of net lateral redistribution of particulate material seems to increase towards the seafloor and be particularly high within the bottommost few meters of the water column.     

Panama Canal expansion: alleviating global climate change

This paper quantifies likely changes in greenhouse gas emissions which contribute to anthropogenic climate change, resulting from the expansion of the Panama Canal and the consequent increase in ship-borne commercial transportation from east Asia to the US east coast. Ocean transportation offers higher fuel economy and lower pollutant emissions compared with land transport. Additionally, truck and train transportation of cargo along the US land bridge threatens to overwhelm existing highway and rail systems and limit economic growth. The alternate transportation route for easterly transit of the Panama Canal will reduce overland traffic congestion and enhance economic development by maintaining freight flow efficiency.     

From theory to practice in road safety policy: Understanding risk versus mobility

This paper reviews theoretical issues surrounding transport safety modeling and the implications for road safety policy. The behavioral mechanisms that affect transport safety are typically not considered in safety modeling. These issues are discussed in the context of trade-offs between risk-taking, as perceived by travelers, and other mobility objectives and the attributes associated with them. This is an extension of other theoretical frameworks, such as risk compensation, and attempts to integrate some of the previous frameworks developed over the years. Various examples of behavioral adaptation to specific policies are discussed and linked to the framework. These issues are then discussed in the context of improvements to empirical work in this area and the linkage of theoretical frameworks to crash modeling, in particular the estimation and use of Crash Modification Factors. Conclusions suggest that there are many deficiencies in practice, from estimation of models to choice of effective policies. Progress is being made on the former, while the publication of practical guidance seems to have substantial lags in knowledge.     

Decision making processes governing federal expenditures within the transportation sector of the United States

The current process for allocating federal funds within the transportation sector of the U. S. is dominated by concerns for territorial equity, administrative feasibility, technical feasibility, and national defense. Economic efficiency as a long range objective is conspicuous by its absence except insofar as it is embodied in the desire to promote the commerce of the nation.Federal allocations for highways, waterways, and maritime subsidies are declining relative to urban public transit, and Coast Guard navigation related expenditures. Environmental considerations and obvious failure in the case of maritime subsidies appear to be the major reasons. Airport and airway allocations will be subject to the same negative forces.The next massive transportation program to appear in the federal budget other than urban public transit is likely to involve the national railway system. The big question here is how the money will be handed out. Economists and planners so far appear to have had little interest or impact in this difficult and crucial area of public decision making.Former Senior Economist, Policy and Plans Development, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Policy and International Affairs, U. S. Department of Transportation. Presently Advisor to the Government of Ethiopia with the Harvard University Development Advisory Service.     

Evaluation,prioritization and selection of transportation investment projects in New York City

Over the last decade, a large number of high capital cost transportation projects have been proposed for the New York City Region. Many have resulted from addressing evolving capacity needs, changes in regional demographics and economics, meeting the improvements necessitated by operating century old subway systems and recognizing the impact of moving freight in a dense region. But the catalyst for bringing all of these projects to the attention of the public and all regional agencies was the tragedy of September 11, 2001. While these projects entail massive investments ($50–$60 billion), little analytical work has been carried out to measure the transportation and economic costs and benefits they entail and to categorize them accordingly. Competition among agencies to secure adequate resources to implement any of the desired projects makes such analysis necessary; yet there still remain political, vested economic interests and agency rivalry barriers to achieving this important planning objective. This paper reports the methodological approach taken by these authors for consistent and transparent project evaluation and then presents results from the ranking and prioritizing methodology. The policy underpinnings and implications of the analysis are discussed in a subsequent paper and thus only briefly touched upon here in the concluding section.     

Suburbanization of jobs and the journey to work: A submarket analysis of commuting in the San Francisco bay area

Inrecent years, a debate has brewed over whether the decentralization of employment has been beneficial from a regional standpoint. In this article, we focus on one aspect of the debate: how the relocation of office workers from a downtown to a suburban location affects commuting patterns and mode choice. From a survey of 320 former downtown San Francisco workers who now work in the suburbs, we found that the average distance traveled remained essentially unchanged and that the average commuting speed increased. The most dramatic change, however, was the switch from public transit to drive-alone commuting. In the aggregate, we estimate that the change in job location was associated with nearly a threefold increase in vehicle miles traveled to work. While from a personal standpoint, employees seemed better off since they got to work faster and more comfortably, from a larger social and environmental perspective, the costs could be significant. More detailed analyses of commuter submarkets revealed that the transportation impacts vary considerably depending on whether the original residence was in the suburbs or central city and whether relocated workers had moved their residences in recent years. In general, those who remained in San Francisco and became reverse commuters were worst off whereas those who moved their residences out of the city were much better off in terms of job access. The article concludes that road pricing would be the best way to force motorists to internalize the external costs of increased drive-alone commuting. Second-best options would be to introduce development impact fees or employer-based trip reduction regulations.