Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects

Transportation - The inaccuracy of traffic forecasts has long stood as a central research theme in the field of infrastructure and transportation studies. The literature presents several motives...     

骨架密实型水泥稳定碎石路用性能

在总结国内外研究的基础上,提出骨架密实型水泥稳定碎石,以减少基层收缩裂缝要求,从而提高水泥稳定碎石基层使用性能。与此同时,与国内规范推荐级配的水泥稳定碎石作比较,结果表明,骨架密实型水泥稳定碎石具有优良的路用性能。     

The nexus between port governance and performance

The diversity of port governance models in the world, sometimes even within the same country, has aroused the interest of researchers. This study is based on contingency theory to support the port governance model. The purpose is to understand the port governance model and the relation with port performance. There are three objectives: to analyze the port governance mechanisms; to analyze the port performance factors; and to understand the influence of the governance model mechanisms on port performance. A factorial analysis was used to determine the main components, and the methodology of the structural equation model was used to analyze a survey sample of 105 valid responses from specialists and managers of port user’s companies that operate in the main Portuguese ports. This study demonstrates that port governance model influences directly the port performance. The main contribution of this paper to the literature is providing a set of factors that public managers may decide when changing the characteristics of the port governance models to ensure their performance. It was also observed the approximation of the port expert vision of port governance with models described in literature.     

Gravity model estimation with proxy variables and the impact of endogeneity on transportation planning

This study presents an alternative method for estimating gravity models by multiple linear regression that is based on proxy variables, thus circumventing the endogeneity problems arising when least-squares estimators are used. The proxy variable approach generates consistent estimators for a gravity model without endogeneity bias. The presence of endogeneity is tested for using statistical tests developed specifically for our application.We conclude that proxy variables eliminate the endogeneity and produce consistent estimators in gravity models estimated using least squares. We also find, however, that endogeneity bias has no significant impact either on gravity model prediction or on urban transportation system planning processes based on such models.     

Valuing Freight Transport Time using Transport Demand Modelling: A Bibliographical Review

The value of time for freight transport is of major importance in infrastructure-related cost–benefit analysis and yet its study has been largely neglected when compared with its passenger counterpart. In fact, one of the attributes that could decide the profitability of a project is how much can be saved if freight vehicles use new infrastructure. Despite being the primary benefit of most investments in transport infrastructure, researchers have not yet reached agreement over either the size or the nature of the values of time that should be used when evaluating projects. This article provides a review of the estimation of freight value of time through transport demand modelling and extant empirical evidence on this topic. Similarly, the bibliographic review of studies undertaken has allowed us to pinpoint the most critical issues when modelling freight transport demand and the position of various research teams regarding these aspects. Such issues include identifying the decision-maker, heterogeneity in the transport flows and transport attributes considered by decision-makers.     

Risk-Sharing in Seaport Terminal Concessions

Over the last two decades, infrastructure development has often been supported by public–private partnerships, particularly under concession arrangements. This paper addresses terminal concession contracts in the seaport sector, and especially the problem of risk-sharing. An effective allocation of risks is the base for the well functioning of the market, and for the success of the ‘landlord’ model. Under this model, the relationship between concessionaires and port authorities is fully dependent on a contract that should be in force for the period of the concession (20, 30 or more years). Based on several Portuguese concession contracts, this paper addresses the issue of risk-sharing agreements. Some policy implications are drawn, namely, alternative contract arrangements to decrease opportunistic behaviour by concessionaires, and to provide incentives to improve efficiency.     

Microscopic simulation of transit operations: policy studies with the MISTRANSIT application programming interface

Abstract

Microscopic traffic simulators are the most advanced tools for representing the movement of vehicles on a transport network. However, the energy spent in traffic microsimulation has been mainly oriented to cars. Little interest has been devoted to more sophisticated models for simulating transit systems. Commercial software has some options to incorporate the operation of transit vehicles, but they are insufficient to properly consider a real public transport system. This paper develops an Application Programming Interface, called MIcroscopic Simulation of TRANSIT (MISTRANSIT), using the commercial microsimulator PARAllel MICroscopic Simulation. MISTRANSIT makes advances in three ways: public transport vehicles can have new characteristics; passengers are incorporated and traced as individual objects; and specific models represent the interaction between passengers and vehicles at stops. This paper presents the modelling approach as well as various experiments to illustrate the feasibility of MISTRANSIT for studying policy operations of transit systems.     

On the semantic scale problem in stated preference rating experiments

Stated preference (SP) rating experiments are easy to design and conduct. Furthermore, they constitute a generalisation of SP choice experiments in terms of the information about preferences that can be achieved. However, its results are sensitive to the numerical values assigned by the analyst to the semantic scale used by individuals to express their preferences. We consider this problem in depth using a variety of statistical techniques, including ordinal probit and a novel optimal scale linear regression approach.     

长(立)方体试件尺寸及其边界约束条件下的水泥土强度理论计算

推导了在不同尺寸和边界约束条件下，水泥土长（立）方体试件抗压强度的理论计算公式，理论分析结论得到了实验结果的验证。