Man and his transport behaviour Part 4a. User response to price changes: application of the ‘threshold’ concept

Summary

(1) The response of an individual consumer to change in such characteristics as price will be to change behaviour at a critical point, a ‘threshold’ at which a change of behaviour is perceived to be beneficial.

(2) Most choices can be viewed as binary, for example, between pairs of transport modes. A cumulative normal distribution of responses will give an S‐shaped curve, the mid‐point being at the average threshold value.

(3) An aggregate demand curve should show the response of a given group of people to a range of price changes at one point in time. Most curves derived from revealed behaviour do not permit this. To some extent, a demand curve must be derived from interviews and other tests, giving hypothetical behaviour. Such methods are used in non‐transport consumer tests, and work by Brög et al. gives a similar picture for transport users, supporting the concept of the S‐shaped curve.

(4) Allowance for frequency of trip‐making modifies this picture, suggesting that a smoother curve may be appropriate for some conditions, such as non‐work trips. These approaches may be combined by use of catastrophe theory, with two control factors. The hysteresis effect is found around the threshold where repeated changes in the basic stimulus produce successively smaller responses.

(5) There is some evidence of symmetrical response by public transport users to real increases and reductions in cash‐paid graduated fares, but this is not the case where different forms of pricing are involved.

(6) An example of threshold effects in private transport may be found in the monitoring of tolls on the Itchen Bridge by Atkins. Demand became particularly sensitive to price in a certain range.

(7) In the public transport field, there is similar evidence from the experience of introducing flat or zonal fares where graduated fares previously applied. Where travelcards are sold, the effect is much greater, and cases such as the West Midlands show little if any effect on sales despite real price increases. Here, trips are about 7% higher than would have been expected for the same revenue target, had graduated fares been retained. However, it may well be possible to exceed the threshold, especially where fares simplification and increases are combined, as the Trondheim experience suggests.     

Comparison of inter‐city bi‐modal split models

Using data collected from rail and air passengers on two inter‐city routes in the U.K., seven different model formulations were set up and tested in order to ascertain the most appropriate model format. As a result of the work carried out, it is concluded that a simple Entropy‐type model based on the theoretical work of A. G. Wilson and utilising a linear generalised cost function is the most suitable. Other useful parameters emerging from the work are perceived values of travel time, and a weighting factor for night travel.     

Reducing the cost of peak hour transit service through contracting out service

Transit service contracting has responded to fiscal and financial woes of public transit agencies as the most uniquely attractive cost‐saving strategy at present. Most transit service contracting, however, has been in the traditional provision of entire fixed route bus service or commuter express bus service, and exclusive demand responsive service for the general public or for special disadvantaged population groups such as the elderly and/or the handicapped. This paper presents a new module in transit service contracting whereby the public and private operators jointly provide the peak service on the same route and at the same time. While the public agency provides the base demand of the service, the private provider provides the excess demand, both following the same schedules and similar service arrangements. In this paper, proposed service arrangements, costing and contracting procedures are discussed. It is also reported that substantial cost savings ranging from 32 to 57% with an average savings of 48% can be achieved if the excess peak hour bus transit service on highly peaked routes in public transit agencies is contracted to competing private operator(s).     

The wind-forced response on a buoyant coastal current: Observations of the western Gulf of Maine plume

The freshwater plume in the western Gulf of Maine is being studied as part of an interdisciplinary investigation of the physical transport of a toxic alga. A field program was conducted in the springs of 1993 and 1994 to map the spatial and temporal patterns of salinity, currents and algal toxicity. The observations suggest that the plume's cross-shore structure varies markedly as a function of fluctuations in alongshore wind forcing. Consistent with Ekman drift dynamics, upwelling favorable winds spread the plume offshore, at times widening it to over 50 km in offshore extent, while downwelling favorable winds narrow the plume width to as little as 10 km.Using a simple slab model, we find qualitative agreement between the observed variations of plume width and those predicted by Ekman theory for short time scales of integration. Near surface current meters show significant correlations between cross-shore currents and alongshore wind stress, consistent with Ekman theory. Estimates of the terms in the alongshore momentum equation calculated from moored current meter arrays also indicate a dominant Ekman balance within the plume. A significant correlation between alongshore currents and winds suggests that interfacial drag may be important, although inclusion of a Raleigh drag term does not significantly improve the alongshore momentum balance.     

实现化、实例化和个性化——系统功能语言学的三种层次关系

系统功能语言学已走过50多年的历程。50多年里,首先研究的主要是语言系统层次的实现化关系,后来研究与之互补的实例化关系。语言系统中包括音系字系系统、词汇语法系统和语篇语义系统。这三个系统层次是实现关系,语篇语义由词汇语法实现,词汇语法由音系字系实现。每个系统都受语域和语类的影响,从而产生不同的文本类型,文本就是语域和语类的实例化结果。但实现化和实例化对个体文本中意识形态和互文性的解读缺乏说服力,急需建构与它们互补的其他层次关系。本文是在介绍实现化和实例化的基础上推出个性化层次关系,从而丰富系统功能语言学对大语篇研究的理论框架。除了介绍三种层次关系外,还通过实例分析来验证三种互补层次关系的可用性。     

Texture Development of a Cold-rolled CuZnAl Alloy

lIntroductionTheCu26Zn-5Al-0.7Ti(wt%)allOysareshaPeIneInOryalloys.PolytwstallineshaPempalloysareingeneralusedinengineeringaPPlicatons.TheshapempeffectsarecloselyrelatedwiththetextUresforthesing1ecrystalshavetheshmplyanisotrOPicPfOPetw[l-3].ItwasshownthatextUredshaPempal1oyspossessedthebettershaPememOryeffectsthannontextUrdones[4].Cu-basedallOystendeasilytOgrowintolnyegrainsinhotrolling,andarenosultabletocoldrollingbecausethe0PhasehasalowmalleabilityatroomtemperatUre.FortheCuZnAlal…     

Investigation of the shear flows over a sunroof opening based on a linear inviscid instability analysis

The large-scale shear flows over the sunroof opening of a mid-sized SUV measured using a PIV system were investigated. The shear flows were measured for five different cases of deflector protrusion (one case was the baseline test without deflector) at two different free stream flow velocities below the critical velocity where the buffeting noise level reached a maximum. The structures of the shear flows were observed to differ, apparently depending on whether the radiated buffeting noise is relatively strong or not. For strongly buffeting experimental cases, the momentum thicknesses of the shear layers were observed to grow rapidly and saturated at a station near the downstream edge of the sunroof opening, where the saturation of the transverse velocity fluctuations was also observed, and where the vortex coalescence process was presumably completed. On the other hand, no discrete large-scale vortex structures were observed for none-buffeting or weakly buffeting cases. Streamwise growth of the velocity fluctuations was found to be well predicted by a linear hydrodynamic instability analysis for the strongly buffeting cases. Numerical results obtained from a linear inviscid instability analysis using a hyperbolic tangent mean velocity profile were used to calculate the amplification factors with the initial momentum thickness and the streamwise fluctuation wavenumber. The shear flows were found to form large-scale discrete vortices when the linear inviscid amplification factors exceeded a threshold amplification factor.     

Congestion charges and retail revenues: Results from the Stockholm road pricing trial

This paper studies the impact of the Stockholm road pricing trial on retail revenues. The analysis is performed using revenue data from 14 shopping malls, 9 within the tool area and 5 outside the tool area. The data also include revenue data from a sample of retail stores located along the main shopping streets in Stockholm. The results show that the Stockholm road pricing trial did not negatively affect retail revenue, neither in shopping malls nor in the sample of retail stores.     

Graph Trace Analysis and Generic Algorithms for Interdependent Reconfigurable System Design and Control

This paper discusses current research for development of model-based generic algorithms for design and control of reconfigurable interdependent systems. This work is based on extension of Graph Trace Analysis (GTA), which was originally developed in the 1990s for power distribution system design. Because of GTA's ability to combine and restructure analysis methodologies from a variety of problem domains, it is now being used for integrated power distribution and transmission system design, operations, and control. Over the last few years research has begun to formalize GTA into a multidiscipline approach that uses generic algorithms and a common model-based analysis framework. The paper provides an overview of the concepts used in GTA, and then discusses how GTA and generic algorithms can be used together for design and control of multidiscipline systems. This new approach includes decoupling component and system level equations, using iterators to structure iterative analysis that simplifies coordination of discrete events and also eliminates the need for large matrices, using composition to implement polymorphism and simplify data management, using dependency components to structure analysis across different systems types, and implementation of hot-swappable algorithms.