Configuration estimation method for preliminary cost of ships based on engineering bills of materials

Ships are complex engineering structures that are designed and built on the basis of technical experience. A shipowner will often be required to estimate the price of a new ship on the basis of the value of comparable ships identified in trade journals. Similarly, shipbuilders are often interested in estimating approximate costs during the tendering phase in order to determine whether a ship is likely to be competitive for a particular order. Thus, when designing a ship prior to having obtained a contract, one of the most important processes is the estimation of approximate costs, including materials, associated labor, and overhead. During this preliminary design phase, the design is temporary and subject to change based on variations in the shipowner’s requirements. Hence, quick and flexible responses are key during this period and an integral aspect of the competitive powers of the shipbuilder. Given this environment, we propose a “configuration estimation method.” Our method is based on the configuration design method that is widely used in three-dimensional (3D) computer aided design (CAD) systems. We assume that a product lifecycle management system is furnished and that the cost is then estimated via the configuration of the ship, using an engineering bill of materials (E-BOM). In referring to the E-BOM, we utilize technical parametric costs derived from similar ships built previously. Using the proposed method, it is possible to obtain an accurate list of materials from the quotation, as well as a detailed work assessment for labor costs and overhead rates, so that reliable cost estimates can be generated quickly and flexibly. To demonstrate the practical applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method, we implement the prototype of a shipbuilding configuration estimation system by using a Microsoft Structured Query Language database and an E-BOM from AVEVA Marine version 12.01, which is a representative CAD system for shipbuilding.     

钢桥面铺装层疲劳试验模型研究综述

如何选取有效的钢桥面铺装层疲劳试验模型,是研究和解决钢桥面铺装结构层疲劳裂缝问题的关键所在。从试验桥跟踪观测、直环道加速加载试验和复合结构疲劳试验模型3个方面,对钢桥面铺装层疲劳试验模型的研究进展进行了系统、深入的阐述,并分析了每类疲劳试验模型的优缺点,为钢桥面铺装结构疲劳试验模型的进一步研究提供借鉴和参考。     

A unified framework for estimating or updating origin/destination matrices from traffic counts

This paper presents an in-depth study of the methodology for estimating or updating origin-to-destination trip matrices from traffic counts. Following an analysis of the statistical foundation of the estimation and updating problems, various basic approaches are reviewed using a generic traffic assignment map. Computational issues related to specific assignment maps and estimation models for both road and transit networks are then discussed. Finally, additional insight into the relative performance of several estimators is provided by a set of test problems with varying input data.     

双蜗壳离心泵设计及喉部面积对性能的影响

为避免某型离心泵在非设计工况点运行产生的较大径向力,对其进行由单蜗壳改为双蜗壳的设计．双蜗壳喉部面积对泵性能曲线有决定性影响,通过改变双蜗壳喉部面积并进行反复试验,最终获得与该型泵运行特性曲线基本相同的双蜗壳离心泵．本文对改进设计方法进行阐述,并分析蜗壳喉部面积对泵特性曲线的影响,为今后其它离心泵的双蜗壳改进设计提供参考．     

分离式套拱加固带裂缝衬砌的变形规律试验研究

文章基于1∶10的相似比制作拱顶带单条纵向裂缝且裂缝深度为原衬砌厚度1/3的隧道二次衬砌模型,采用弹簧模拟地层抗力,进行了分离式套拱加固衬砌(原衬砌与新增套拱之间增设防水板)的径向加载试验,得出了带裂缝衬砌经分离式套拱加固后的变形规律与破坏模式。结果表明,在松动荷载作用下,分离式套拱加固结构的受力过程分为"初期加载—预制裂缝径向贯通、预制裂缝径向贯通—套拱拱顶裂缝径向贯通、套拱拱顶裂缝径向贯通—试件破坏"三阶段,破坏荷载由原衬砌拱腰截面控制,关键部位破坏顺序为拱顶开裂—拱腰断裂—拱顶破坏,整体破坏性质为脆性破坏。     

外部静水压力作用下完好和损伤环肋圆柱壳极限强度计算公式

  目的  重点推导在静水压力下完好和损伤的钢质环肋圆柱壳极限强度预测公式。考虑的损伤场景可代表海上环肋圆柱壳结构（如潜艇、半潜式平台、桅杆以及作为浮式海上风力涡轮机底座的浮柱）的碰撞事故。  方法  验证数值模拟和分析技术,对6种小型环肋圆柱壳模型进行试验。首先,采用刀口压头跌落试验分析4种圆柱模型的损坏情况,然后将所有模型置于静水压力下进行测试,以评估完好和损坏情况下的极限强度。通过改变设计变量,对实际设计的全尺寸环肋圆柱壳进行严格的参数化研究,最后根据参数化研究结果推导出预测损坏环肋圆柱壳剩余强度的简单计算公式。  结果  计算结果与试验结果和有限元分析结果的准确性和可靠性比较结果显示,在所有载荷情况下,吻合均较好。  结论  所做研究对海上结构物环肋圆柱壳的设计和使用极限状态评估具有一定的参考价值。     

基于NL模型的昌九客运交通方式选择分析

针对客运通道内的交通方式合理规划问题,对南昌至九江运输通道内的客运交通方式分担率进行研究。首先,根据德尔菲法确定影响出行方式的主要因素并依此建立效用函数和巢式logit模型;其次,运用TransCAD对模型的参数进行标定,并用SPSS软件对调查问卷的内容和统计结果进行分析;最后,结合调查结果和分担率模型,计算昌九客运通道内4种交通方式的分担率。计算结果与调查结果基本一致,证明模型的适用性,并通过分析未来客运通道内旅客出行选择的偏好,给交通行业发展提出参考意见。     

水平、垂直节理发育条件下的隧道稳定性分析

文章依托内蒙古呼和浩特市窑沟隧道工程实例,对典型断面所在区段的节理特征参数进行了采集,得到了实际地层中存在的近水平、垂直发育节理的详细参数;通过综合运用现场监测、室内模型试验、数值模拟手段,分析了隧道开挖后的上覆岩层运动行为与结构受力特征,研究了该类地层中围岩的变形特征与失稳模式,为后续的支护设计及其优化提供了参考。研究结果表明,在窑沟隧道所处的典型地层,即近水平、垂直节理发育工况下:(1)无支护开挖时,地层稳定性极差,塌落区与松动区集中分布于拱顶上方,最大塌落高度为0.48倍洞宽,塌落面积为0.51倍断面面积,拱顶等效荷载为0.084 MPa,松动区延伸至地表,近似呈三角形分布;(2)按设计方案施作初期支护后,地层松动范围明显缩减,高度降为1.1倍洞宽,拱顶最大沉降为7.7 mm,边墙收敛为3.4 mm,结构安全储备足够。     

我国交通运输业全要素生产率测算方法

为全面掌握我国交通运输业当前的运营状况和生产率水平,更准确地分析交通运输业的经济增长点和更好地促进行业高质量发展,利用Malmquist生产率指数模型,通过对全行业及分领域的投入产出要素的测算,分析了全行业的全要素生产率水平,并对比了行业各领域的全要素生产率发展情况。结果显示：2003—2018年,全行业全要素生产率在平稳波动中有所增长,各分领域的生产率也在波动中不断变化;公路、水路、民航的全要素生产率增长较快,年均增长率在3.6%左右,主要得益于资源配置效率和技术进步率的共同提高;铁路运输业全要素生产率年均增长率较低,低于行业平均水平。根据测算结果分析,应继续推进体制改革,加快行业转型升级步伐,推动资源配置效率的最大化,以提高行业全要素生产率。     

大孔隙环氧沥青混合料路用性能研究

目前国内大孔隙沥青混合料大都使用PE、SBS、EVA等热塑性改性沥青,然而循环荷载、温度应力和水的综合作用容易引发热塑性沥青混合料力学强度和耐久性降低.环氧沥青的固化反应可使沥青从热塑性转变为热固性,从而获得比普通沥青优异得多的物理、力学性能.为提高大孔隙沥青混合料的性能,使用环氧沥青作为黏结剂,制配出大孔隙环氧沥青混...