Hybrid model for prediction of bus arrival times at next station

Effective prediction of bus arrival times is important to advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Here a hybrid model, based on support vector machine (SVM) and Kalman filtering technique, is presented to predict bus arrival times. In the model, the SVM model predicts the baseline travel times on the basic of historical trips occurring data at given time‐of‐day, weather conditions, route segment, the travel times on the current segment, and the latest travel times on the predicted segment; the Kalman filtering‐based dynamic algorithm uses the latest bus arrival information, together with estimated baseline travel times, to predict arrival times at the next point. The predicted bus arrival times are examined by data of bus no. 7 in a satellite town of Dalian in China. Results show that the hybrid model proposed in this paper is feasible and applicable in bus arrival time forecasting area, and generally provides better performance than artificial neural network (ANN)–based methods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅析公路特殊路段路基防护与加固

论述公路路基一般防护与加固原则和处理措施,重点对滨河路基,风沙路基防护要求进行了介绍。     

Study on the form factor and full-scale ship resistance prediction method

To consider the resistance component due to hull geometry, the International Towing Tank Conference (ITTC) adopted the resistance test method in 1978, introducing the form factor concept with two basic assumptions, i.e., the form factor of a model ship is the same as that of a full-scale ship and the form factor is independent of ship speed. However, it is not only very difficult to determine the form factor using the ITTC ’78 method, but also there have been questions regarding the basic assumptions. Therefore, the authors carried out three basic studies on the form factor concept and proposed a new extrapolation procedure for the prediction of full-scale ship resistance performance. The validity of the proposed procedure is being investigated by comparing sea trial and model test results. The results of this investigation will be presented in the near future.     

基于Profibus-DP的西门子PLC与伟肯变频器通讯的实现

本文构建了由PC机、PLC、变频器组成的基于Profibus-DP总线的控制系统。文中分析了变频器通讯的相关参数设置及Profibus-DP通讯协议,利用Step-7和NC-Drive等软件开发实现了西门子S7-300PLC与伟肯变频器的实时通讯,同时也给出了相关组态流程及源程序。试验表明系统运行稳定、可靠。     

Reliability analysis of multi-state repairable system with dynamic transition probabilities

Inadequate maintenance decisions lead to incremental overall costs. In order to minimize costs in maintenance of the multi-state repairable system, we model a preventive maintenance (PM) scheme of the multistate repairable system using non-Markov process. The periodically decreasing reliability model of the non-Markov dynamic system with dynamic transition probabilities is established to satisfy the probability change. The diesel engine system is taken as an example to illustrate the model. The reliability of the diesel engine is analyzed and its PM scheme is worked out. RENO software is used to simulate the diesel engine system. The maintenance cost of components and the optimal PM interval data of the system are obtained by using the minimal average cost as the objective function. The adaptability of PM is judged, and the optimal PM scheme is presented.     

《公路泥石流防治工程设计指南》梗概

泥石流是山区公路的主要病害。简述了《公路泥石流防治工程设计指南》（简称《指南》）的编写背景及依据,慨述了《指南》的主要技术框架以及《指南》应用过程中应注意的几个关键问题,为公路建设及养护等相关技术规范的修改提供了重要依据。     

智能化UPS的实用通讯接口设计

智能化UPS通过增设通信接口提高了UPS的管理水平,方便地实现了远程监控。本文以TMS320系列DSP为主控芯片的智能化UPS为例,介绍其通讯接口RS-232接口及在RS-232接口基础上的SNMP接口的构建,该SNMP卡为硬件协议栈设计。本文给出了智能化UPS通讯接口相关硬件及软件设计方法。     

沥青路面弯沉温度修正试验研究

落锤式弯沉仪(FWD)在道路检测领域得到了广泛的应用,但相应的弯沉温度修正关系尚未建立.为此在某试验路段进行周期1 a的路面弯沉盆数据采集及相应沥青结构层温度监测,建立了基于FWD的沥青路面弯沉温度修正关系,并利用等效层理论及Bossinesq弯沉方程将其扩展到任意沥青厚度下的温度修正公式.通过与美国及我国依据梁式弯沉仪建立的温度修正公式比较发现,3种修正关系存在一定的差异.     

Fuzzy optimization of storage space allocation in a container terminal

A fuzzy optimization model of storage space allocation is proposed, and a rolling-planning method is derived. The model takes the uncertainty of departure time of import containers and arrival time of export containers into account. For each planning horizon, the problem is decomposed into two levels: the first level minimizes the unbalanced workloads among blocks using hybrid intelligence algorithm; based on block workloads allocated in the above level, the second level minimizes the number of blocks to which the same group of import containers are split. Numerical results show that the model reduces workload imbalance, and speeds up the vessel loading and discharging process.     

选择性COX-2抑制剂Celecoxib预防大鼠术后腹腔粘连的实验研究

目的 探讨Celecoxib对大鼠术后腹腔粘连形成的预防效果及其机制.方法 80只SD大鼠随机分为5组:接受腹膜擦损术为A组,接受腹膜擦损术+40mg/(kg·d)Celecoxib为B组,接受腹膜擦损术+20mg/(kg·d)Celecoxib为C组,接受腹膜擦损术+透明质酸钠凝胶为H组,仅接受开、关腹操作的假手术为S组.各组随机半数大鼠于术后第8天和15天处死,肉眼评估大鼠一般情况和腹腔粘连程度,免疫组化法检测粘连组织VEGF和CD34.结果 5组大鼠术后粘连程度组间差别具有显著性意义(P<0.01),B组、C组的粘连评分均明显小于H组、A组.VEGF蛋白表达量A组最强,次之分别为H组、C组、B组,S组最弱.CD_(34)表达量A组最强,次之分别为H组、C组、B组,S组最弱.结论 术后短期口服Celecoxib可有效预防大鼠术后腹腔粘连形成,效果优于透明质酸钠凝胶.机制可能与抑制COX-2活性后下调VEGF表达,抑制粘连组织新生血管发生有关.