Designing a decision support model for the LNG market

Abstract

As the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market is supply-driven and subject to long-term contracts, both liquefaction companies and shipowners need to make strategic decisions on fleet chartering requirements. These planning decisions become ever more difficult in light of the transformations permeating the LNG market, propelling into a more competitive market with more flexible trades and expanding spot markets. The overcapacity of LNG ships during 2008–2009 triggered by massive overcontracting is a good case in point where the use of decision support models would have been beneficial, especially considering the fortunes and risks at stake. In this paper we present an LNG shipping model that effectively supports decision-making in practice. To demonstrate the value added of the model, we study the implications of LNG project delays and increased decommissioning of ships with respect to market balance and fleet requirements.     

Designing flexible transport services: guidelines for choosing the vehicle type

Abstract

This paper offers a new approach to identify realistic acceptable levels of subsidy for flexible transport services (FTSs) and then proposes guidance on selection of the most appropriate vehicle types which should be offered in the design of FTS for different environments. The guidance is evidence based and has been derived from detailed analysis of the economic performance of seven FTS pilot applications plus a further five feasibility studies implemented as part of the EU FLIPPER (Flexible Transport Services and ICT platform for Eco-Mobility in urban and rural European areas) project. A major conclusion from the analysis is that the product of the demand multiplied by the average trip distance provides a very strong indicator as to the type of vehicle which should be used. It is hoped this guidance will provide a valuable aid in designing the most suitable and cost-effective FTS solutions in both urban and rural environments.     

Planning for economic and environmental resilience

Climate protection will require major reductions in GHG emissions from all sectors of the economy, including the transportation sector. Slowing growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will be necessary for reducing transportation GHG emissions, even with major breakthroughs in vehicle technologies and low-carbon fuels (Winkelman et al., 2009). The Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) supports market-based policy approaches that minimize costs and maximize benefits. Our research indicates that significant GHG reductions can be achieved through smart growth and travel efficiency measures that increase accessibility, improve travel choices and make optimum use of existing infrastructure. Moreover, we find such measures can deliver compelling economic benefits, including avoided infrastructure costs, leveraged private investment, increased local tax revenues and consumer vehicle ownership and operating cost savings (Winkelman et al., 2009).As a society, what we build – where and how – has a tremendous impact on our carbon footprint, from building design to transportation infrastructure and land-use patterns. The empirical and modeling evidence is clear – people drive less in locations with efficient land use patterns, high quality travel choices and reinforcing policies and incentives (Ewing et al., 2008). It is also clear that there is growing and unmet market demand for walkable communities, reinforced by demographic shifts and higher fuel prices (Leinberger, 2006, Nelson, 2007). Transportation policy in the United States must rise to meet this demand for more travel choices and more livable communities.The academic, ideological and political debates about the level of GHG reductions and penetration rates that can or should be achieved via smart growth and pricing on the one hand, or measures such as ‘eco-driving’ and signal optimization on the other, have served their purpose: we know which policies are ‘directionally correct’ – policies that reduce GHG emissions even though we may not know the scope of those reductions. Now is the time to implement directionally correct policies, assess what works best where, and refine policy based on the results. It is a framework that CCAP calls “Do. Measure. Learn.”The Federal government is poised to spend $500 billion on transportation (Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, 2009). CCAP encourages Congress to “Ask the Climate Question” – will our transportation investments help reduce GHG emissions or exacerbate the problem? Will they help increase our resilience to climate change impacts or increase our vulnerability? And, while we’re at it, will our investment foster energy security, livable communities and a vibrant economy? Federal transportation and climate policies should empower communities to implement locally-determined travel efficiency solutions by providing appropriate funding, tools and technical support.     

Using system dynamics in maritime economics: an endogenous decision model for shipowners in the dry bulk sector

In this paper, we consider the benefits of applying system dynamics in maritime economics. We build an endogenous shipowners' model for the dry bulk sector, incorporating both the decision process of individual shipowners and traditional shipping market conditions. The aim is to arrive at a simulation tool that can be used for a variety of applications, both for teaching/learning and for research purposes. Within the endogenous shipping model, we can distinguish between the strategic and the tactical choices shipowners face. As an application, we focus explicitly on a strategic decision-making process that is relevant to any shipowner, i.e. the sale of a vessel. System dynamics seems to be a tool well-suited for the detailed modelling of strategic and operational behaviour in the maritime business.     

中巴喀喇昆仑公路冰川灾害

中巴公路穿越西喀喇昆仑-喜马拉雅山系的冰缘地带,沿线冰川活跃,冰川消融与进退等引发各类地质灾害,严重损毁公路,危及公路安全.中巴公路灾害防治是中巴公路改扩建工程的目标,科学防灾减灾需要掌握中巴公路沿线冰川及冰川灾害的形成及发展规律.通过野外调查、定点观测、文献检索与遥感解译等研究手段发现,独特的地形地貌、丰沛的夏季降雪、险峻的地形落差、山地气候波动等环境因素孕育大量跃动型冰川,具有长期萎缩与间歇跃动、同期不同步、夏季累积型和悬冰川的活动特征.中巴公路沿线可区分为四大活动性冰川群,洪扎河谷(Hunza River)一带的帕苏幕士塔格山冰川群(Pasu Mustaghs)最为活跃.中巴公路冰川灾害可分为冰川灾害与冰川地质灾害两大类别,10个类型.其中,冰湖溃决、冰川泥石流的治理是工程上主要面临的防治问题.     

Possible effects of climate change on the spread of invasive marine species and implications for maritime industries

Global climate change stands to have major implications for maritime industries, including fisheries and aquaculture, recreation and tourism, and shipping and ports. Amongst these implications are the possible effects of climate change on the dispersal and distribution of marine species, as environmental conditions in the world’s seas and oceans change with climate change. This paper explores, in an introductory manner only, the potential impacts of climate change on marine bio-invasions, the possible effect of these impacts on maritime industries, and the possible implications for the way that we manage these industries, including ship’s ballast water and sediments and hull fouling, to prevent and reduce marine bio-invasions. The paper presents the case for the inclusion of this topic on the programme of 1st International Conference on the Impacts of Climate Change on Maritime Industries (ICCMI 2008), planned to be held in Malmö, Sweden in June 2008, where international experts in the science of climate change and marine bio-invasions might present more detailed scientific and technical papers on the issue.     

Distribution of dinoflagellate cysts in surface sediments of the Mackenzie Shelf and Amundsen Gulf, Beaufort Sea (Canada)

In order to document long-term climate cycles and predict future climate trends for the Arctic, we need to look at the geological records to establish the link between historical and pre-historical sea-surface parameters. Dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) are used as proxy indicators of sea-surface parameters (temperature, salinity, sea-ice cover, primary productivity) jointly with transfer functions and a modern dinocyst reference database, to reconstruct the evolution of sea-surface conditions at decadal and millennial timescales. Here we present the surface distribution of recent dinocyst assemblages from 34 surface sediment samples collected on the Mackenzie Slope/Amundsen Gulf during the 2004 CASES (Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study) cruise. Dinocyst concentrations in surface sediments are relatively high outside the Mackenzie plume area and increase gradually eastward toward Amundsen Gulf. The cysts of autotrophic dinoflagellates are dominant throughout the study area, while the maximum abundance of heterotrophic taxa is found within the Mackenzie plume. Hierarchical clustering analyses allowed defining two dinocyst assemblages. Assemblage I is located on the Mackenzie Slope and southern Amundsen Gulf, while Assemblage II is located within the Cape Bathurst Polynya area in northern Amundsen Gulf. Both assemblages are dominated by Operculodinium centrocarpum, but are distinguished on the basis of the relative abundance of Islandinium minutum, a taxon generally associated with sea ice. I. minutum is found in lower abundance in the Cape Bathurst Polynya.     

The role of geomatics engineering in establishing the marine information system for maritime management

Maritime management encompasses the employment and manipulation of human resources, financial resources, technological resources and natural resources that relate to the sea, maritime navigation, shipping, port development and coastal protection. It contributes to the economic growth, price stability, transportation of cargoes and passengers, and business activities of shipping organizations. The efficient management of resources, operations and activities relies on a modern marine information system (MIS) whose information is provided by geomatics engineers and IT professionals, among others. This paper first introduces the role of the geomatics engineer as geodesist, engineering surveyor, land boundary surveyor, cartographer, hydrographer, photogrammetrist and geographic information system (GIS) engineer since all these fields are related to maritime trade, supply chains and development of ports and airports. It then describes the principal components of a web-based MIS and the important role of geomatics engineers in surveying data. This includes collecting data from electronic nautical charts (ENC) and raster nautical charts (RNC), by applying high resolution light detection and ranging (LIDAR), satellite platform sensors and GIS.     

Shorelines management: The French approach

Although France does not have a specific law dealing with shorelines management, various policies and policy instruments exist which enable a certain amount of control over the shoreline development process. This article discusses the various institutional arrangements in France as they relate to (1) problems of marine pollution, (2) the control of land‐based pressures for shoreline use and development, and (3) the creation of a new shorelands trust. The role of existing institutions, such as the six river basin agencies, is also discussed.     

检测故障管道 英国科学家找到了更好的办法，使危险的管道在爆裂前就能被检测出来

锅炉壁中的高压管或高温工艺管道（比如在石化工业中）会变得越来越薄，这在正常使用中会产生灾难性故障的风险。因此必须定期检查锅炉或管壁的厚度，以对任何管壁厘度夏薄的状况进行监控。目前Warwick大学开发出一种新技术，使锅炉及管道的厚度变化更容易被检测，从而更容易防止出现故障。