基于马尔可夫链的极值波高预测

本文研究了由日最大波高系列估算设计极值波高时，相邻日最大波高间的相关性对极值预测的影响，从日最大波高系列遵从马尔可夫链的假定出发，考虑到国内外经常采用对数一正态分布的韦布尔分布拟合波高长期分布的现实，本文用解析法求解了对数一正态分布情况下的极值预测。同时，对解析法难以求解的非正态随机变量情况（如韦布尔分布），用计算机随机模拟方法求解其极值预测，用上述两种方法对北大西洋和北海有关日最大波高系列的预测     

80m3/h多功能清淤船的研制

介绍了一种为解决粉沙、淤泥质平原型海岸,潮沟摆动明显及挟有大量泥沙的潮水逆流而上造成的江河入海口及港道大量淤积而研制的清淤船,它集射流冲刷、拖淤、吸扬挖泥等多种功能于一体。     

组合预测在港口吞吐量预测中的应用研究

以某港口1996—2002年吞吐量为原始数据,按照“误差平方和最小”的准则,把一元线性回归模型和GM(1,1)模型组合起来,对某港口2004—2008年的吞吐量进行了组合预测。     

电解电容器的可靠性筛选及失效分析

阐述了电解电容器的老化筛选试验方案和试验过程，并对筛选失效的电容进行了初步的机理分析，找到了容量超差，漏电流超值及其它失效的基本原因。     

Application of large eddy simulation in the performance study of wave blocker

The configuration and aerodynamic performance of the inlet system are important aspects in the process of installing a gas turbine on a naval vessel. Under the requirements, large eddy simulation （LES） is used to simulate the three-dimensional fluid flow in the wave blocker of a marine inlet filter. The Smagorinsky-Lilly sub-grid model was used to model motions of small-scale structures. During numerical simulation, the SIMPLE algorithm was applied. The central-differencing spatial discretization scheme and the second order accuracy finite difference for the temporal discretization were used. Simulation gives satisfactory distribution of the vorticity fields and turbulent kinetic energy. Compared with the k-ε turbulent model, the results of LES are better for the distribution of parameters. The results of experimental study in a small-scale wind tunnel indicate that numerical calculation has higher accuracy. Therefore, the methods used are worthy of reference and introduction for the design of an inlet system.     

加强安全文化建设努力构建大安全机制

介绍了安全文化对企业安全生产基础性结构建设的引领作用,指出安全文化是企业在生产和经营管理活动中微观意识形态和企业全体员工安全行为方式的基础建设,并就营造企业“安全文化”,构建大安全机制,提出了具体的方法和措施。     

Estimation of delay variability at signalized intersections for urban arterial performance evaluation

Urban arterial performance evaluation has been broadly studied, with the major focus on average travel time estimation. However, in view of the stochastic nature of interrupted flow, the ability to capture the characteristics of travel time variability has become a critical step in determining arterial level of service (LOS). This article first presents a stochastic approach that integrates classic cumulative curves and probability theories in order to investigate delay variability at signalized intersections, as a dominant part of the link travel time variability. This serves as a basis for arterial travel time estimation, which can be obtained through a convolution of individual link travel time distributions. The proposed approach is then applied in the estimation of travel time along one arterial in Shanghai, China, with abundant automatic vehicle identification (AVI) data sources. The travel time variability is evaluated thoroughly at 30-min intervals, with promising results achieved in comparison to the field measurements. In addition, the estimated travel time distributions are utilized to illustrate the probability of multiple LOS ranges, namely, reliability LOS. The results provide insights into how we might achieve a more reliable and informative understanding of arterial performance.     

新时期高职院校党建工作存在的问题及对策

文章通过分析目前高职院校党建工作存在的发展不平衡、学生党员入党前后的形象不和谐、学生党员整体作用不明显等问题,提出了深入基层宣传、抓好学生党员再教育、推进党员责任区工作、发挥教师党员教书育人作用以及加强流动党员管理等对策。     

兔眼环孢霉素A缓释微球的眼内释药性研究

目的建立兔眼房水中环孢霉素A缓释微球的高效液相测定方法,考察在不同给药剂量下兔眼房水中的药物代谢特性,为该药预防后发性白内障提供理论依据。方法兔眼行晶体囊外摘除,左眼前房及囊袋内注射环孢素微球,右眼给予空白微球作对照,采用高效液相色谱法监测给药后4周内兔眼房水中环孢霉素A的浓度。色谱柱为反相C18硅胶柱,柱温为60℃,流动相为乙腈-水(67∶33),检测波长210nm。结果兔眼房水中环孢霉素A的浓度在0.13-1.25mg/L范围内呈良好线性关系(r=0.9951),最低检测浓度0.13mg/L,回收率95.91%,日间和日内精密度均小于5.0%。缓释微球的释药速率适中,兔眼前房给药后可在2周内维持较高浓度,高低两种给药剂量下,环孢霉素A的吸收半衰期(t1/2Ka)和血浆清除速率(CL)经检验无统计学差异,药时曲线下面积(AUC)和峰浓度(Cmax)与剂量之间线性相关。结论环孢素A缓释微球在兔眼内有较高的生物利用度,实验期内可达到抑制后发性白内障的有效浓度。     

基于层次分析法的区间估计的车站能力查定误差因子分析研究

本文归纳总结了车站能力查定计算过程中存在的多种影响因素,深入分析了其产生原因和不可避免性。然后利用层次分析法的区间估计方法计算得出各种误差因子对计算结果的影响权重大小,并对比不同误差因子的权重区间,筛选出强误差因子,剔除弱误差因子,为精确计算车站能力值提供依据。