锚杆质量无损检测技术在高速公路的试验及应用

为把好锚杆的锚固质量关,开发简便、准确的无损检测方法是当务之急。介绍锚杆质量的无损检测原理、检测方法、检测分析与判断以及工程应用实例。     

Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling

This study reviews the 50-year history of travel demand forecasting models, concentrating on their accuracy and relevance for public decision-making. Only a few studies of model accuracy have been performed, but they find that the likely inaccuracy in the 20-year forecast of major road projects is ±30 % at minimum, with some estimates as high as ±40–50 % over even shorter time horizons. There is a significant tendency to over-estimate traffic and underestimate costs, particularly for toll roads. Forecasts of transit costs and ridership are even more uncertain and also significantly optimistic. The greatest knowledge gap in US travel demand modeling is the unknown accuracy of US urban road traffic forecasts. Modeling weaknesses leading to these problems (non-behavioral content, inaccuracy of inputs and key assumptions, policy insensitivity, and excessive complexity) are identified. In addition, the institutional and political environments that encourage optimism bias and low risk assessment in forecasts are also reviewed. Major institutional factors, particularly low local funding matches and competitive grants, confound scenario modeling efforts and dampen the hope that technical modeling improvements alone can improve forecasting accuracy. The fundamental problems are not technical but institutional: high non-local funding shares for large projects warp local perceptions of project benefit versus costs, leading to both input errors and political pressure to fund projects. To deal with these issues, the paper outlines two different approaches. The first, termed ‘hubris’, proposes a multi-decade effort to substantially improve model forecasting accuracy over time by monitoring performance and improving data, methods and understanding of travel, but also by deliberately modifying the institutional arrangements that lead to optimism bias. The second, termed ‘humility’, proposes to openly quantify and recognize the inherent uncertainty in travel demand forecasts and deliberately reduce their influence on project decision-making. However to be successful either approach would require monitoring and reporting accuracy, standards for modeling and forecasting, greater model transparency, educational initiatives, coordinated research, strengthened ethics and reduction of non-local funding ratios so that localities have more at stake.     

On the use of mathematical programming in the evaluation of transport policies

This paper focuses on the evaluation processes by which decisions regarding transportation alternatives can be assisted. A multidimensional approach usually called multiple criteria decision making is required to represent the complexity of transportation policy and systems.

The multiple criteria decision making techniques can be divided into two groups. The first is based on a ranking scheme approach and the second on a mathematical programming approach.

A multiple objective mathematical programming procedure known as Goal Programming is presented. The authors examined the use of that procedure in real transportation problems.

The results suggest that multiple objective mathematical programming techniques in general do not appear to be appropriate in transportation policy analysis involving mutually exclusive alternatives. Their use can be limited to special cases in the private sector.     

Alternative fuels for transportation

The alternatives to the oil based fuels for transportation are considered and analysed. These are the synthetic fuels, made from coal, the liquid petroleum gases of propane and butane, compressed natural gas and methanol. The problems associated with the use of electric vehicles are discussed; the main problem being that of range.

The possible use of hydrogen as a fuel is analysed in some detail. Since its supply can be tied directly to nuclear energy sources, rather than hydrocarbon feed stocks, it could be an alternative in the long term. The main problems of the storage of hydrogen on the vehicle and of its propensity to “back‐fire” into the engine intake are discussed. The first can be ameliorated and the second eliminated by dual fuelling; with petrol. It is advocated that the on‐board storage of hydrogen be by the use of hydrides for private cars. However, it is expected that it may be as liquid hydrogen for some forms of transport and will certainly be in this form for aircraft.     

Optimal traffic assignment to urban streets with air pollution consideration

Traffic assignment is usually determined solely on the basis of minimum travel time through the network. The present study on traffic assignment has taken into account not only traffic performance but also air quality over the street. A simple model of highway air pollution is developed by considering macroscopic material balance of polluted air mass over a segment of a highway that passes through an urban area, A new traffic assignment scheme has been developed based on the air pollution model. The optimal traffic assignment obtained by the new scheme is affected significantly by meteorological conditions.     

Characteristics of premium transit services that affect mode choice

This research seeks to improve the understanding of the full range of determinants for mode choice behavior and to offer practical solutions to practitioners on representing and distinguishing these characteristics in travel demand forecasting models. The principal findings were that the representation of awareness of transit services is significantly different than the underlying assumption of mode choice and forecasting models that there is perfect awareness and consideration of all modes. Furthermore, inclusion of non-traditional transit attributes and attitudes can improve mode choice models and reduce bias constants. Additional methods and analyses are necessary to bring these results into practice. The work is being conducted in two phases. This paper documents the results of Phase I, which included data collection for one case study city (Salt Lake City), research and analysis of non-traditional transit attributes in mode choice models, awareness of transit services, and recommendations for bringing these analyses into practice. Phase II will include data collection for two additional case study cities (Chicago and Charlotte) with minor modifications based on limitations identified in Phase I, additional analyses where Phase I results indicated a need, and a demonstration of the research in practice for at least one case study city.     

Building Philippine Local Government Capacity for Coastal Resource Management

The responsibility for managing coral reefs and other coastal resources was largely devolved to coastal municipalities and cities in the Philippines in 1991 with the passage of the Local Government Code. Devolution of powers and responsibilities to local government has paved the way for mainstreaming coastal resource management at the local level. However, the capacity to carry out this mandate has only recently begun to mature as municipalities and cities gain an increased awareness of the importance of coastal resources to communities and economic development. Approaches and strategies to increase local government capacity for coastal resource management are described based on the experiences of the Coastal Resource Management Project of the United States Agency for International Development. Qualitative and quantitative data are used to illustrate the possible impact of these capacity building efforts and to describe the current capacity of local government to undertake coastal resource management. After five years of project implementation, coastal municipalities have increased technical capacity, have allotted financial resources, and have achieved key performance benchmarks in the delivery of coastal resource management as a basic service.     

Design and evaluation of an integrated inventory and transportation system

This paper proposes the adoption of an integrated inventory and transportation system (IITS) to minimize the total costs of inventory and transportation. A non-linear programing is developed by analyzing transportation and inventory costs with one supplier and many retailers in the distribution environment. The paper compares the proposed model with the traditional approach in computing total costs with numerical data. The results indicate that the total costs can be optimized by adopting integrated programing rather than the traditional approach, along with achieving improved customer service levels. In particular, sensitivity analysis is applied to determine the performance of the IITS under various transportation costs, holding costs and shortage costs. It shows that the transportation cost per unit is most sensitive in the proposed model. In this situation, the IITS is more effective for cost saving when set-up cost, holding and shortage costs are high, but is less effective for situations involving high per-unit transportation costs.     

Urban sports anglers and Lake Michigan fishery policies

Abstract

Over the past few years an unusually intense struggle over the future of the Lake Michigan fishery has occurred in the coastal communities of Racine and Kenosha. This struggle has engaged participants on the local, state, and national levels in the debate over the fishery as it is potentially impacted by the presence of environmental toxins, the rising cost of fish stocking and management, and conflicting user group demands. We describe three cases where urban sports anglers, with the assistance of university based social scientists, participated in state and city public policy decisions. After discussing this research and its policy implications, we propose a general public participation paradigm termed the Reciprocal Development Model.     

A product life cycle approach to urban waterfronts: The revitalization of Galveston

Abstract

Urban waterfronts are increasingly the focus of revitalization efforts designed to enhance tourism and recreation. The evolution of urban waterfronts suggests that these resources experience distinct stages of introduction, growth, maturity, decline, and sometimes revitalization. In this paper the product life cycle is broadened to describe the evolution of the waterfront district of Galveston, Texas. Implications of the product life cycle model of urban waterfront revitalization pertain to public policy formation, “product”; development, and management response to different life cycle stages.