State-of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned and the road ahead

In this paper we review freight forecasting models and current advances and needs with respect to data and model development. We then present a case study to suggest which models should be developed for the State of California in the US. We suggest several alternatives including an aggregate commodity flow model, a disaggregate regional logistics model and a hybrid regional logistics model with a truck touring model. We point out however, that the data requirements for the latter model would be extensive. In addition, the development of hybrid models, for example progress in the integration of regional logistics models with urban truck touring models, will introduce new problems such as reconciling the outputs of multiple models for consistency.     

Treatment of seasonal tickets for public transport in estimation and application of mode/destination choice models

A new model system dealing with trips of length up to 100 km has recently been developed in Norway. A new way of dealing with seasonal passes for public transport is used in the travel-to-work model. The objective was to account for the fact that a respondent that posses a seasonal pass for public transport may behave as if public transport is free on the day they report a travel diary. On the other hand, we can not assume that public transport is free for respondents that used other modes of transport or that public transport is free to alternative destinations. This problem was solved by defining seasonal pass as a separate alternative in the form of a nest that included all modes of travel. The cost of a seasonal pass is a common cost for all modes in the nest and will thus not affect the choice within the nest. The estimation of this specification is compared with the more common approach of assigning an average cost per day based on the cost of a monthly pass and the number of workdays in a month. The comparison indicates that the “average cost per day” approach may produce biased estimates for several parameters. It also turns out that the cost parameter for seasonal pass is higher than the parameter for “out of pocket” cost, probably reflecting that there will be some uncertainty with respect to the actual use of a seasonal pass.     

A modelling system to simulate goods movements at an urban scale

The paper reports a modelling system to simulate goods movements at an urban scale. It allows joint analysis of choices made by end-consumers (assumed to be families) and retailers. These movements are examined at two levels: analysis of commodity flows, in terms of quantity, generated by the consumption of commodities; analysis of commodity flows, in terms of vehicles, due to restocking. The first level allows us to calculate the goods quantity flows due to consumption and restocking; the second level allows us to determine the service, vehicles used and target time, as well as the route chosen for restocking sales outlets in order to estimate vehicle flows on the urban/metropolitan transportation network. The modelling system is a multi-step model and considers a disaggregated approach for each decisional level.     

A comprehensive analysis of household transportation expenditures relative to other goods and services: an application to United States consumer expenditure data

This paper proposes a multiple discrete continuous nested extreme value (MDCNEV) model to analyze household expenditures for transportation-related items in relation to a host of other consumption categories. The model system presented in this paper is capable of providing a comprehensive assessment of how household consumption patterns (including savings) would be impacted by increases in fuel prices or any other household expense. The MDCNEV model presented in this paper is estimated on disaggregate consumption data from the 2002 Consumer Expenditure Survey data of the United States. Model estimation results show that a host of household and personal socio-economic, demographic, and location variables affect the proportion of monetary resources that households allocate to various consumption categories. Sensitivity analysis conducted using the model demonstrates the applicability of the model for quantifying consumption adjustment patterns in response to rising fuel prices. It is found that households adjust their food consumption, vehicular purchases, and savings rates in the short run. In the long term, adjustments are also made to housing choices (expenses), calling for the need to ensure that fuel price effects are adequately reflected in integrated microsimulation models of land use and travel.     

Estimation method for railway passengers’ train choice behavior with smart card transaction data

Smart card systems have become the predominant method of collecting public transport fares in Japan. Transaction data obtained through smart cards have resulted in a large amount of archived information on how passengers use public transportation. The data have the potential to be used for modeling passenger behavior and demand for public transportation. This study focused on train choices made by railway passengers. If each passenger’s train choice can be identified over a long period of time, this information would be useful for improving the customer relationship management of the railway company and for improving train timetables. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology for estimating which train is boarded by each smart card holder. This paper presents a methodology and an algorithm for estimation using long-term transaction data. To validate the computation time and accuracy of the estimation, an empirical analysis is carried out using actual transaction data provided by a railway company in Japan. The results show that the proposed method is capable of estimating passenger usage patterns from smart card transaction data collected over a long time period.     

Simulation of unsteady free-surface flow around a ship hull using a fully coupled multi-phase flow method

An accurate, efficient algorithm for solving free surface flows around ship hulls is described. Accuracy is achieved using a compressive advection discretization which maintains a sharp free surface interface representation without relying on a small time step. Efficiency is obtained using a solution algorithm which implicitly couples velocity, pressure, and volume fractions. The algorithm has been implemented in a computational fluid dynamics code called CFX and is validated by means of a comparisonwith experimental data of benchmark cases in both steady and transient conditions.     

A comparative analysis of the European and North-American approaches to dealing with major oil spills

Background  

The question of what should be the right level of preparedness to react to a major oil spill (i.e. the EXXON VALDEZ spill, the ERIKA spill, and the PRESTIGE spill) is highly debated, especially in the aftermath of such spills. Little research, however, has been conducted with the aim to identify and compare governments’ best practices not only to fund preparedness measures but also to assess the countries’ ability to respond effectively to catastrophic oil spills. It is the author’s belief that important lessons can be learnt from a comparative analysis of countries’ best practices.     

Numerical analysis of crack under compression by 3D displacement discontinuity method

A 3D displacement discontinuity method is applied to solve the fracture mechanics problems of the mixed mode crack under compression. Friction between the surface of the closed crack is considered by establishing a simple and efficient iterative algorithm based on method of contact resistance mitigation. On the surfaces of the closed crack, the Mohr-coulomb rule is satisfied by iteration when the crack is in condition of sliding. The stress intensity factors are obtained using displacement fitting method. It is shown that the numerical results agree with the experimental results well and that friction plays an important role in resisting crack propagation.     

Experimental study on the liquid slug of cryogenic slug flow in inclined tubes

An experimental study was carried out to understand the phenomena of the boiling flow of liquid nitrogen in inclined tubes with closed bottom by using a high speed motion analyzer.The experimental tubes are 0.018 and 0.014 m inner diameter(ID) and 1.0 m in length.The range of the inclination angle is 45°-90° from the horizontal.The experimental observation on the liquid slug was carried out along the tubes.Statistical method was employed to analyze the experimental data.The experiment analyzed the influences of the inclination angle and the tube diameter on the liquid slug length and velocity.The results show the liquid slug propagation velocity increases with the decrease of inclination angle θ.For all cases,the maximum values of the mean liquid slug lengths were obtained at θ = 60°.The mean liquid slug lengths were greater for large tube at higher tube position.These conclusions provide a basis for further study liquid slug of cryogenic two-phase undeveloped slug flow.