The Signs of the Times: Imposing a Globally Signed Condition on Willingness to Pay Distributions

A feature of recent developments in choice models that enable estimation of the distribution of willingness to pay (WTP) is that the sign of the distribution can change over the range. Behaviourally this often makes little sense for attributes such as travel time on non-discretionary travel, despite a growing recognition of positive utility over some travel time ranges. This can in part be attributed to the analytical distribution that is selected (except the cumbersome lognormal), many of which are unconstrained over the full range. Although a number of analysts have imposed constraints on various distributions for random parameters that can satisfy the single-sign condition, these restrictions are, with rare exception, only satisfied for the mean and the standard deviation estimates of a random parameter. When heterogeneity around the mean and/or heteroscedasticity around the standard deviation is allowed for, however, the constraint condition is often not satisfied. Given the popularity of distributions other than the lognormal, in order to satisfy the sign condition under the most general form of parameterisation, we need to impose a global sign condition. In this paper we show how this might be achieved in the context of the valuation of travel time savings for car commuters choosing amongst an offered set of route-specific travel times and costs. We illustrate the impact of the constraint under a globally constrained Rayleigh distribution for total travel time parameterisation, contrasting the evidence with a multinomial logit model and a range of other distributional assumptions within the mixed logit framework. Discussions with Bill Greene, John Rose, Ken Train and especially Juan de Dios Ortuzar have been invaluable as have the comments of referees.     

Minimum order bang-bang guidance for feedforward obstacle avoidance steering maneuvers of vehicles

In this paper, a new methodology is presented for computing time-optimal obstacle avoidance maneuvers for ground vehicles. Usually, the problem of obstacle avoidance is addressed in two parts. In the first part a path is planned. In the second an appropriately designed vehicle controller tracks the desired path. In view of the fact that the main problem concerning emergency maneuvers remains the development of an optimal control for minimum time and maximum maneuverability — with respect to the slip risk due to saturation of the tire forces — the authors propose an alternative approach. Considering that the time optimal control according to Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle (PMP) is of bang-bang type the investigations concern the minimum order and magnitude bang-bang control for “feedforward” steering maneuvers with the target of minimizing the computation time and simplifying the algorithm. This is accomplished by keeping the basic PMP logic but transforming the computational algorithm from an exact to a least squares control problem. Furthermore, the paper addresses how to solve the problem of guiding the vehicle from a non rest to a rest position. Simulations of obstacle avoidance maneuvers illustrate the performance of the controller.     

Design,manufacturing and evaluation of glass/polyester composite crash structures for lightweight vehicles

The development and validation of a modular composite impact structure is presented in the present paper. Quasi-static and dynamic impact tests of the composite components and a full frontal crash test of a vehicle prototype with composite impact structures manufactured by a new UV-pultrusion process have been performed. The results have demonstrated the feasibility of composite impact structures for crash applications with high specific energy absorption values compared with current metallic crash structures. Furthermore, due to the high production capacity of this new manufacturing process, cost-effective composite impact structures for mass-production of conventional cars may be feasible. Finally, a multimaterial numerical model as design tool for crashworthiness applications has also been validated. Different accelerations measured in the crash test have been accurately predicted as well as the crash behaviour of the composite impact structures.     

应用碟片激光器和光学扫描仪进行遥控焊接

采用YAG激光器进行固体焊接，已成为汽车制造过程中一项成熟可靠的工艺。该项工艺现广泛用于车身和车架制造、传动系统制造、车座制造和其它领域。     

A spatial decision support system for retail plan generation and impact assessment

Current geographic information systems typically offer limited analytical capabilities and lack the flexibility to support spatial decision making effectively. Spatial decision support systems aim to fill this gap. Following this approach, this paper describes an operational system for integrated land-use and transportation planning called Location Planner. The system integrates a wide variety of spatial models in a flexible and easy-to-use problem solving environment. Users are able to construct a model out of available components and use the model for impact analysis and optimization. Thus, in contrast to existing spatial decision support systems, the proposed system allows users to address a wide range of problems. The paper describes the architecture of the system and an illustrative application. Furthermore, the potentials of the system for land-use and transportation planning are discussed.     

Mapping evacuation risk on transportation networks using a spatial optimization model

The focus of this paper is on the development of a methodology to identify network and demographic characteristics on real transportation networks which may lead to significant problems in evacuation during some extreme event, like a wildfire or hazardous material spill. We present an optimization model, called the critical cluster model, that can be used to identify small areas or neighborhoods which have high ratios of population to exit capacity. Although this model in its simplest form is a nonlinear, constrained optimization problem, a special integer-linear programming equivalent can be formulated. Special contiguity constraints are needed to keep identified clusters spatially connected. We present details on how this model can be solved optimally as well as discuss computational experience for several example transportation networks. We describe how this model can be integrated within a GIS system to produce maps of evacuation risk or vulnerability. This model is now being utilized in several research projects, in Europe and the US.     

A numerical study of stochastic larval settlement in the California Current system

Key to the predictive understanding of many nearshore marine ecosystems is the transport of larvae by ocean circulation processes. Many species release thousands to billions of larvae to develop in pelagic waters, but only a few lucky ones successfully settle to suitable habitat and recruit to adult life stages. Methodologies for predicting the larval dispersal are still primitive, and simple diffusive analyses are still used for many important applications. In this study, we investigate mechanisms of larval dispersal using idealized simulations of time-evolving coastal circulations in the California Current system with Lagrangian particles as models for planktonic larvae. Connectivity matrices, which describe the source-to-destination relationships for larval dispersal for a given larval development time course, are used to diagnose the time–space dynamics of larval settlement. The resulting connectivity matrices are shown to be a function of several important time scales, such as the planktonic larval duration, the frequency and duration of larval release events and inherent time scales for the coastal circulations. Many important fishery management applications require knowledge of fish stocks on a year-to-year or generation-to-generation basis. For these short time scales (typically less than 1 year), larval dispersal is generally far from a simple diffusive process and the consideration of the stochastic and episodic nature of larval dispersal is required. This work provides new insights into the spatial–temporal dynamics of nearshore fish stocks.     

Analysis of activity duration using the Puget sound transportation panel

In this paper, we extend previous analyses of temporal effects by examining the factors associated with activity generation and duration over four waves of the Puget sound transportation panel survey (PSTPS). A Cox proportional hazards model was specified for each of five activities: visiting, appointment, free time, personal business, and shopping. For each activity, the duration times are modeled with an emphasis on examining important higher order interactions. The results suggest that activity durations have changed significantly over the survey period. Many of the differences in activity durations over time were significant, and often associated with increasing numbers of children in the household and higher order interactions between sex and the sequencing of activities.     

时变动载荷状况下高速列车对铁路桥振动的影响

研究了桥梁在高速列车定载荷和交变载荷作用下,桥梁挠度的变化情况.