Multilevel modelling of Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) trips in Greater Manchester based on area-wide socio-economic data

Providing public transport in areas of low demand has long proved to be a challenge to policy makers and practitioners. With the developing economic, social and environmental trends, there is pressure for alternative solutions to the policy of subsidising conventional bus services. One potential solution is to adopt more flexible routes and/or timetables to better match the required demand. Therefore such ‘on demand’ or ‘Demand Responsive Transport’ (DRT) services (known as paratransit in the US) have been adopted in a number of locations. This paper seeks to explore the effects of area-wide factors on the demand of DRT by reporting the results of a statistical analysis of DRT service provision in the metropolitan region of Greater Manchester, the public transport authority of which offers one of the largest and most diverse range of DRT schemes in the UK. Specifically, this paper employs a multilevel modelling approach to investigate the impact of both DRT supply-oriented factors at the service area level and socio-economic factors at the lower super output area (LSOA) level on the average number of trips made by DRT per year. This hierarchical or ‘nested’ structure was adopted because typically the LSOAs within the same Service Area may share similar characteristics. It is found that the demand for DRT services was higher in areas with low car ownership, low population density, high proportion of white people, and high levels of social deprivation, measured in terms of income, employment, education, housing and services, health and disability, and living environment.     

Planning for cycling in the dispersed city: establishing a hierarchy of effectiveness of municipal cycling policies

Transportation - Urban utility cycling is being promoted widely due to various health, social, economic and environmental benefits. This study seeks to identify and rank which municipal-level...     

Integrated fluid-thermal-structural numerical analysis for the quenching of metallic components

The quenching of a metal component with a channel section in a water tank is numerically simulated. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to model the multiphase flow and the heat transfer in film boiling, nucleate boiling and convective cooling processes to calculate the difference in heat transfer rate around the component and then combining with the thermal simulation and structure analysis of the component to study the effect of heat transfer rate on the distortion of the U-channel component. A model is also established to calculate the residual stress produced by quenching. The coupling fluid-thermal-structural simulation provides an insight into the deformation of the component and can be used to perform parameter analysis to reduce the distortion of the component.     

关于平行运动护舷设计的思考

平行运动护舷(PM护舷)是近年发展起来的新型护舷,在PM护舷承受偏心靠泊荷载冲击作用时基本上能保持竖直状态,从而减少桩基靠船墩等支撑结构的作用力.由于其结构比传统护舷更复杂,内部机构所承受的荷载也较难确定,在实际应用中曾发生过一些结构破坏.通过对模型试验结果的分析,水面下的锥形封闭式舷鼓可能是造成护舷结构破坏的原因之一.     

The effect of location,mobility and socio-demographic factors on task and time allocation of households

This paper investigates the role of location factors in task and time allocation at the household level. It is hypothesized that, if time constraints are less binding as a result of living in an urban area or owning more cars, spouses engage more often and longer in out-of-home activities and schedule their activities more independently. The hypotheses are tested with logistic and Cox regression models of activity participation and time allocation on a data set collected in the Amsterdam–Utrecht region in the Netherlands. Results suggest that the hypotheses are supported with respect to specific household activity scheduling decisions.     

Prediction of ship steering capabilities with a fully nonlinear ship motion model. Part 1: Maneuvering in calm water

This paper introduces a new method for the prediction of ship maneuvering capabilities. The new method is added to a nonlinear six-degrees-of-freedom ship motion model named the digital, self-consistent ship experimental laboratory (DiSSEL). Based on the first principles of physics, when the ship is steered, the additional surge and sway forces and the yaw moment from the deflected rudder are computed. The rudder forces and moments are computed using rudder parameters such as the rudder area and the local flow velocity at the rudder, which includes contributions from the ship velocity and the propeller slipstream. The rudder forces and moments are added to the forces and moments on the hull, which are used to predict the motion of the ship in DiSSEL. The resulting motions of the ship influence the inflow into the rudder and thereby influence the force and moment on the rudder at each time step. The roll moment and resulting heel angle on the ship as it maneuvers are also predicted. Calm water turning circle predictions are presented and correlated with model test data for NSWCCD model 5514, a pre-contract DDG-51 hull form. Good correlations are shown for both the turning circle track and the heel angle of the model during the turn. The prediction for a ship maneuvering in incident waves will be presented in Part 2. DiSSEL can be applied for any arbitrary hull geometry. No empirical parameterization is used, except for the influence of the propeller slipstream on the rudder, which is included using a flow acceleration factor.     

三足鼎立 经典老爷车对决

40多年前,Triumph TR5,Porsche 911和Alfa Romeo GTV纷纷使出自己的浑身解数,想在动力、天生的竞技综合能力以及人们所接受的1960年代车型风格等方面拔得头筹。如今,哪一台车值得装进你的车库中呢?     

Perceptions of Threats Facing Cabo de Palos - Islas Hormigas MPA and Potential Solutions

Many marine protected areas (MPAs) face a multitude of threats to the ecosystems that they have been established to conserve. This study is based on 111 interviews conducted in 2013–2014 designed to discover the perceptions of stakeholders about the threats, the causes of the threats, and their responses to the threats, to a well-established MPA – Cabo de Palos - Islas Hormigas (CPH-MPA). This MPA was created to safeguard fisheries and the associated artisanal fishers, but over time it has become a tourism “hotspot.” Resilience theory, which incorporates ecological resilience, social resilience, and individual resilience, helps us to analyze stakeholders' responses to threats by categorizing them into passive, adaptive, and transformative responses. We found respondents identified four main threats – over-fishing, excessive scuba diving, pollution, and invasive species; attributed the threats to three main causes – ineffective management, poor environmental stewardship, and climate change; and expressed three kinds of responses – do nothing, adapt, or transform – with a preference for adaptation and (especially) transformation. The lesson of this study is that it shows how, unless drastic action is taken to curb recreational diving activities, the CPH-MPA is in danger of changing from a fishing reserve to a largely unregulated leisure diving venue, which is unlikely to fulfill the requirements of resilience; ecological, social, or individual.     

Governance for Sustainable Coastal Futures

The mobile nature of soft coasts means that coastal communities face uncertainty in their property values and peace of mind when the existing coastal defense is lowered or removed. The acceptance by the U.K. government that coastal realignment in areas of low population density and limited ecological value is unavoidable means that the current state of affairs, where coastal residents have broadly come to assume that they will be defended if they make enough fuss, cannot continue. The government is currently unwilling to confront this consternation and continues to refuse to pay compensation for lost property value. This is creating an outcry over loss of fairness of treatment. This dispute raises important questions of governance for coastal change. This participatory research project worked closely with English Nature, North Norfolk District Council, local residents associations, the Environment Agency, and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. What emerged in the analysis were unresolved tensions between national strategic frameworks, emerging planning arrangements, changing economic assessments, and the desirability of delivering, through a number of public and voluntary agencies, local flexibility in participation and in coastal design. This article reports on the research process, the challenges for coastal governance, and the scope for creative partnerships between science, planning, policy delivery, and public acceptance.     

通用大宇沉浮录·下篇·

GMDAT策略:品牌重建、弥补GM全球车型总体规划的不足和空白、增强在新兴市场知名度上篇中曾提到,为使通用大宇重新占领市场,通用面临诸多挑战。但在很短的时间内,通用就稳定了大宇的军心,重拾了客户与企业之间的信心联系,再次启动新车型开发项目,且确保对GMDAT的财政支持。以上措施尽管取得了一定的效果,但通用深知要想