Accounting for travel time variability in the optimal pricing of cars and buses

A number of studies have shown that in addition to travel time and cost as the common influences on mode, route and departure time choices, travel time variability plays an increasingly important role, especially in the presence of traffic congestion on roads and crowding on public transport. The dominant focus of modelling and implementation of optimal pricing that incorporates trip time variability has been in the context of road pricing for cars. The main objective of this paper is to introduce a non-trivial extension to the existing literature on optimal pricing in a multimodal setting, building in the role of travel time variability as a source of disutility for car and bus users. We estimate the effect of variability in travel time and bus headway on optimal prices (i.e., tolls for cars and fares for buses) and optimal bus capacity (i.e., frequencies and size) accounting for crowding on buses, under a social welfare maximisation framework. Travel time variability is included by adopting the well-known mean–variance model, using an empirical relationship between the mean and standard deviation of travel times. We illustrate our model with an application to a highly congested corridor with cars, buses and walking as travel alternatives in Sydney, Australia. There are three main findings that have immediate policy implications: (i) including travel time variability results in higher optimal car tolls and substantial increases in toll revenue, while optimal bus fares remain almost unchanged; (ii) when bus headways are variable, the inclusion of travel time variability as a source of disutility for users yields higher optimal bus frequencies; and (iii) including both travel time variability and crowding discomfort leads to higher optimal bus sizes.     

Heterogeneity assumptions in the specification of bargaining models: a study of household level trade-offs between commuting time and salary

With many real world decisions being made in conjunction with other decision makers, or single agent decisions having an influence on other members of the decision maker’s immediate entourage, there is strong interest in studying the relative weight assigned to different agents in such contexts. In the present paper, we focus on the case of one member of a two person household being asked to make choices affecting the travel time and salary of both members. We highlight the presence of significant heterogeneity across individuals not just in their underlying sensitivities, but also in the relative weight they assign to their partner, and show how this weight varies across attributes. This is in contrast to existing work which uses weights assigned to individual agents at the level of the overall utility rather than for individual attributes. We also show clear evidence of a risk of confounding between heterogeneity in marginal sensitivities and heterogeneity in the weights assigned to each member. We show how this can lead to misleading model results, and argue that this may also explain past results showing bargaining or weight parameters outside the usual [0,1] range in more traditional joint decision making contexts. In terms of substantive results, we find that male respondents place more weight on their partner’s travel time, while female respondents place more weight on their partner’s salary.     

Analysis of train derailment after hitting the pier of tongling yangtze river bridge combined road with railwayEI北大核心

Research purposes: Precise prediction for mechanical behavior of the bridge under ship collision force is important to assess the analysis of train derailment after hitting the pier. This paper focuses on the Tongling Yangtze River Bridge Combined Road with Railway for ship collision simulation, uses the nonlinear finite element software of ANSYS/LS-DYNA to simulate the ship's bow section of 10000 t and 5000 t class hitting bridge tower column at front and axle to 20° of side in highest navigable water level, conventional navigable water level and the minimum navigable water level. Curves of collision force-period at different working conditions are summarized. On this basis, when the impact load affects as input loads, the displacement and acceleration response can be used by finite element analysis under the collision and study the dynamic response of the bridge caused by a train derailment risk. Research conclusions: (1) The impact force of the bridge is largest when a laden ship is hitting the pier at the highest navigable water level. In the most unfavorable condition, the collision have lardge impact on bridge structure and derailment risk of trains. (2) The transverse acceleration of the girder on the top of 2# pier can reach to 0.922 m/s2, but it does not exceed acceleration excitation limit (1 m/s2) when 3# piers are hitted by the 10000 t ship at the peak load of collision, so the probability of train derailment is minimal. (3) Based on the probability formula of the derailment by simplifying risk criteria, the derailment probability of train is 9×10-5~1.5×10-4 during the ship-bridge collision. (4) The research results can provide the reference for train traffic safety on railway bridge caused by ship collisions.     

Dynamic analysis of energy storage unit of the hydraulic hybrid vehicle

A new configuration of hydraulic hybrid vehicle (HHV) was presented, which mainly consists of an engine, high-pressure accumulator, lower-pressure reservoir and hydraulic transformer (HT) connected to common pressure rail (CPR), and the working principle of hydraulic hybrid vehicle has been described to extend its energy-regenerated potential. Moreover, the mathematical models of the instantaneous pressure ratio of HT and the characteristic parameters of parallel and series accumulator (i.e. effective volume, specific energy, and charge-discharge efficiency) based on lumped parameters method were built, respectively. The simulation and experimental tests of dynamic characteristics of HT and accumulator were done, the result shows that the theoretical analysis was the same as the experimental results by comparing them in the curve trend, and the series accumulator was much superior to parallel accumulator in terms of pulsation damping of hydraulic transformer, that is the simulation results reasonably and appropriately.     

Intelligent speed adaptation: Preliminary results of on-road study in Penang,Malaysia

The first field experiment with intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) in Malaysia was held in December 2010 in the State of Penang. Eleven private cars were instrumented with an advisory system. The system used in the present study included a vocal warning message and a visual text message that is activated when the driver attempts to exceed the speed limit. When the driver decreases the speed, the warning stops; otherwise it is continuously repeated. The test drivers drove the vehicles for three months with the installed system, and the speed was continuously logged in all vehicles. The warning was however only activated in the second month of the three month period. The present study aimed to evaluate the effects of an advisory ISA on driving speed, traffic safety, and drivers' attitude, behavior, and acceptance of the system. To examine these effects, both the survey and the logged speed data were analyzed and explored. The results show a significant reduction in the mean, maximum and 85th percentile speed due to the use of the system. However, there was no long-lasting effect on the speed when the system was deactivated. In the post-trial survey, drivers declared that the system helped them well in following the speed limits and that it assisted them in driving more comfortably. Furthermore, the warning method was more accepted compared to a supportive system, such as active accelerator pedal (AAP). After the trial, most drivers were willing to keep an ISA system.     

Some properties of international maritime statistics

This paper tests two fundamental hypotheses concerning international maritime statistics. The first one deals with the question of stationary of the maritime market statistics. The second hypothesis tested is the assumption that the international maritime statistical time series are not distributed according to a normal of Guassian probability law, but rather belong to the same family of distributions with distinctly different critical parameters. Through well documented statistical methods, the paper concludes that the international freight rates observed on a day to day basis are generated by a random walk process. The paper finds that the shipping industry's conventioal wisdom is essentially correct. ‘Last done’ is as good a forecast of tomorrow's freight rate as any other generated by more sophisticated forecasting methods. Furthermore, freight rates and secondhand tonnage prices fluctuate closely together. The freight rates are generated by stochastic processes fully described by the Paretian family of distributions. The critical parameters of these distribution, the characteristic exponents, are such that the risk conscious ship operator can indeed reduce his exposure to risk by securing a correct set of freight rate contracts.     

Productivity change in Nigerian seaports after reform: a Malmquist productivity index decomposition approach

ABSTRACT

During the 1990s, Nigerian seaports were considered inefficient, unsafe due to massive cargo theft (wharf rat phenomenon) and one of the most expensive port systems in the world. This resulted in long turnaround times for ships and increased container dwell times. As a result, port operations were transferred to the private sector through concession contracts. This paper employs a Malmquist productivity index (MPI) technique to benchmark pre-and post-reform total factor productivity growth of the six major Nigeria seaports (Apapa, Calabar, Onne, Port Harcourt, TinCan Island and Warri) for the period 2000–2011 which represents six years before (2000–2005) and six years after (2006–2011) the reform. The results indicate progress in technical efficiency of the ports after reform but deterioration in technological progress. Overall productivity growth was higher in the pre-concession period compared to the post-concession period. The source of pre-concession period productivity growth was technological progress while the change in productivity of the post-concession period is generated by an increase in scale efficiency. This suggests that concessionaires have not brought in the much anticipated investment in modern technology to drive port efficiency. The ports of Calabar and Apapa experienced the highest productivity growth while lowest result was Onne.     

Maritime economics in a Post-Expansion Panama Canal Era

Government recently introduced the Transport Law Reform Bill, which if passed by Parliament, will allow foreign vessels to uplift and discharge cargoes and passengers along the coast of New Zealand. Coastal shipping is part of the domestic transport industry, which has benefitted from deregulation and considerable restructuring over the last decade. This paper provides a brief review of the coastal shipping industry in New Zealand and an overview of international cabotage laws. An alternative open coast shipping policy proposed by the New Zealand Shipping Federation, which is based on ‘level playing fields’ principles, is presented. The scope of cost benefit analysis is outlined and the potential costs and the potential costs and benefits of the Government's open coast shipping policy are summarized. Despite the potential costs to New Zealand of an open coast policy appearing to be considerably greater than the potential benefits. Government officials have not undertaken an empirical cost benefit analysis. The paperr concludes that hte clauses of the Transport Law Reform Bill relating to an open coast policy should be withdrawn and a full empirical cost benefit analysis should be undertaken to determine the best coastal shipping policy for New Zealand.     

Accommodating perceptual conditioning in the valuation of expected travel time savings for cars and public transport

Travel time variability (i.e., random variations in travel time) leads to a travel time distribution for a repeated trip from a fixed origin to destination (e.g., from home to work). To represent travel time variability, a series of possible travel times per alternative (departure time, route or mode) are often used in stated choice experiments. In the traditional models, the probabilities associated with different travel scenarios (e.g., arriving early, on time and late) shown in the experiments are directly used as weights. However, evidence from psychology suggests that the shown probabilities may be transformed (underweighted or overweighted) by respondents. To account for this transformation of probabilities, this study incorporates perceptual conditioning through a non-linear probability weighting function into a utility maximisation framework, within which the empirical estimate of the value of expected travel time savings is estimated. The key advantage of this framework is that the estimated willingness to pay value can be directly linked to the source of utility (i.e., the probability distribution of travel time), while taking into account the perceptual transformation of probabilities.