The design of liner shipping serives: the problem of feeder services versus multi-port-calls

In this paper, the authors outline the structure of liner shipping systems with special emphasis on the question of whether feeder services are superior in economic terms to the more traditional and commonly-used multi-port-calling system. They describe the theoretical advantages of the former over the latter, and develop a model by which the optimal conditions both operate in may be determined. This model is then applied to a real situation to ascertain whether the theory works in practice. They conclude that the shuuttle/feeder system is worthwhile only in exceptional circumstances when specific route characteristics—low trade density; hinterland generated cargo; inland position of port; and heavy congestion—coexist. Despite the expense of multi-port-calling, it remains the most practical solution to the thin trade problem.     

Non-commuters: the people who walk to work or work at home

The paper focuses on the socioeconomic characteristics of workers at home and those who walk to work and these are compared with commuters (those who travel to work by motorized transportation). Understanding of such characteristics of these people is useful for purposes of designing policies that encourage these forms of "travel" to work, if it is believed desirable for planning or environmental purposes. For example, subsidizing public transportation may also have an impact on the proclivity to work at home or walk to work. Using a large census data set for Israel, separate subsamples are analyzed for heads of household and for their spouses. Metropolitan areas as well as peripheral urbanized areas are analyzed separately. Logit analysis is used to identify those variables that affect the likelihood of different groups of people to walk to work or to work at home.It is shown that walkers to work tend to be lower-income, less-educated people with lower asset ownership rates. Females are overrepresented amongst them, while "high-status" professionals are underrepresented. Workers at home appear to be a more complex group. They tend to have higher levels of education and wealth than commuters, but earn less on average. They include proportionately more females. The likelihood of working at home increases with home size and with ownership of some durable goods. The workers at home may in fact be comprised of two or more differing groups with contrasting characteristics, one higher-income and higher-educated, the other with lower socio-economic indicators. Because they may be a heterogeneous group, development of planning policies to encourage non-vehicle commuting may require different policy tools for the different subgroups.     

Home-based trip end models — A comparison between category analysis and regression analysis procedures

The trip end models which have been used in past transportation studies are briefly summarised. Problems associated with the use of zone-based models are outlined and reasons are given to support the development of models at the household rather than zonal level.It is suggested that recent developments which have taken place in household-based models have not been entirely logical. In particular, arguments between regression models and category analysis models have been confused with the use of aggregate (zonal) as against disaggregate (household) data — regression models being associated with the use of zonal data and category analysis models with household data. Misunderstood arguments and false notions regarding sample sizes have directed attention from the regression analysis approach.A detailed comparison of the category analysis and regression analysis methods for developing household-based trip end models is given. Both methods have been applied using data from the Monmouthshire Land Use Transportation Study. The regression results reported are from a very preliminary analysis and contain a number of anomalies, although it is thought that sufficient work has been done to provide an objective evaluation of the two methods.It is recommended that the household regression approach should be further investigated since it has advantages as a modelbuilding procedure and makes better use of sample data. A certain amount of categorisation of household types is necessary and the investigations would attempt to determine the best balance between categorisation and regression fitting. Further development will be restricted if the trend towards minimum sample sizes of about 1000 households is continued. Larger samples should be taken in certain circumstances to pursue development work.     

RMS Values of Force, Stroke and Tyre Deflection in a Half-Car Model with Preview Controlled Active Suspension

Summary Matrix expressions are developed for the direct computation of rms values for the optimal control forces, front and rear suspension strokes and dynamic tyre deflections in a half-car model on a random road of given roughness. A quadratic performance index is employed with assumed weighting factors and evaluated in the same computation.     

A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

Some evidence of transit demand elasticities

This paper draws together empirical evidence from a variety of sources about the magnitudes of transit price elasticities and cross-elasticities. A number of different practical measures of demand elasticity are first defined and some expectations about magnitude are discussed. Evidence is then collated from the analysis of transit operating statistics, from experience in demonstration projects and from attempts to develop cross-sectional models of demand and modal choice.In general, all of the limited evidence available suggests that transit demand is inelastic with respect to money price. Typically, ridership is significantly more sensitive to changes in the level of service (particularly door-to-door journey time) than to changes in fare, although service elasticities also are usually numerically less than unity.In broad terms, short-run direct fare elasticities are characteristically observed to lie within the range of -0.1 to –0.7. A more precise value in a particular instance will depend on a variety of factors in ways which largely support a priori notions. Thus in very large cities, central city areas, at peak hours, and in other circumstances where the prices of alternative modes are high, transit fare elasticities are usually numerically at the lower end of the range.Estimates of cross-elasticities (representing the volumes of transit traffic diverted to other modes by transit price increases) are much harder to come by, and in fact only a few very uncertain estimates are presented here.This paper is a condensation of an Urban Institute Working Paper of the same title (WP 708-52, November 1971). Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Urban Institute or its sponsors.     

The influence of the Agulhas Current on the adjacent coastal ocean: possible impacts of climate change

The dynamics of the coastal ocean along the southeastern coast of Africa is dominated by a strong and intense western boundary current, the Agulhas Current. With a near-uniform, narrow continental shelf and a steep shelf slope that stabilizes this current, the trajectory of the Agulhas exhibits great stability. The only substantial perturbation occurs with the irregular passage of a Natal Pulse, a soliton meander. The initiation of this meander at the Natal Bight is due to a barotropic instability when the intensity of the landward border of the current exceeds a certain threshold value. This may come about with natural fluctuations in the current or with the adsorption of deep-sea eddies onto the current. Under a climate change scenario of altered wind stress curl over the South Indian Ocean it is conceivable that the threshold for the triggering of a Natal Pulse will occur more frequently. This will lead to a situation where the current axis on average lies further offshore. The possible consequences of such a situation on the rainfall of the coast, on the ecology of estuaries and the coastal ocean, and on the socio-economics of the region is discussed.