Market segmentation as a mechanism in allowing for variability of traveller behaviour

A major problem with aggregate transport planning models is the accounting of variability in traveller behaviour when the basic unit of analysis is the geographical traffic zone. In an attempt to allow for this variance, recent attention has been given to the role of socio-economic (user and household) characteristics in systematically identifying a homogeneous grouping of travellers with respect to the issue under study rather than restricting the grouping definition according to physical geographical criteria alone. This homogeneous grouping criterion combined eventually with a necessity to represent travel demand in a spatial context, can assist in improving our ability to explain real travel patterns by the development of an improved aggregation condition. The emphasis is on modelling homogeneous groups of travellers separately, and then relating the individual sets of results to each other to obtain an aggregate prediction of behaviour via a knowledge of the representativeness of each group contained in the total sample. This paper presents a technique to identify the relative homogeneity of travellers in accordance with a specified criterion, and illustrates its use with individual household data for the Sydney Metropolitan Area. The paper concludes with a discussion of the advantages of segmentation in operational transport planning, in particular with reference to the aggregation of disaggregate behavioural travel choice models, or movement from a micro-model of individual choice behaviour to an aggregate model of travel demanu.     

An analysis of trip length and land use patterns in the Greater Athens Area

The research described in this paper is an attempt to quantify the impact of a certain distribution of land uses upon trip characteristics — notably trip lengths. The idea is to relate trip lengths classified by mode and purpose to the distance of one trip end from the conurbation centre. The latter is defined as the point which represents a reasonable estimate of the place where the economic, administrative, and cultural life of the urban area is centered.By relating trip lengths to the distance of one trip end from the centre, one could obtain a relation which in effect would be a quantitative expression of the relation between transport and land use. The first application of this idea was in London using the 1966 journey to work data, and it gave quite satisfactory results.The area examined in this research is the Greater Athens Area. The method of analysis is similar to that followed in London so the results of the two studies can be compared. Only work trips are considered for four modes: car, bus, train and all modes (total). It is found that in the case of Athens too, when distance of the workplace from the centre is considered, trip lengths change in smoothly varying ways and a series of mathematical curves can be fitted to the data with an acceptable degree of accuracy. These curves are of the Gamma family having a constant spread factor and varying scale factors for each mode considered. When the distance of the residence end of the trip from the centre is considered, the trip length distributions are not very smooth, a clear mathematical curve cannot be fitted, but again a considerable degree of order can be detected. In addition to the above results a discussion is given on their meaning and the possibilities for future research. In fact the results so far are considered to be the first stage of a more extended research programme which will eventually connect trip length distributions to income and other economic or social parameters in an urban area.The author wishes to express his thanks and appreciation for the comments and constructive criticism made on the various drafts of this paper by M.J.M.     

Do new sources of traffic data make the application of Chaos Theory to traffic management a realistic possibility?

Current signal systems for managing road traffic in many urban areas around the world lack a coordinated approach to detecting the spatial and temporal evolution of congestion across control regions within city networks. This severely inhibits these systems’ ability to detect reliably, on a strategic level, the onset of congestion and implement effective preventative action. As traffic is a time-dependent and non-linear system, Chaos Theory is a prime candidate for application to Urban Traffic Control (UTC) to improve congestion and pollution management. Previous applications have been restricted to relatively uncomplicated motorway and inter-urban networks, arguably where the associated problems of congestion and vehicle emissions are less severe, due to a general unavailability of high-resolution temporal and spatial data that preserve the variability in short-term traffic patterns required for Chaos Theory to work to its full potential. This paper argues that this restriction can now be overcome due to the emergence of new sources of high-resolution data and large data storage capabilities. Consequently, this opens up the real possibility for a new generation of UTC systems that are better able to detect the dynamic states of traffic and therefore more effectively prevent the onset of traffic congestion in urban areas worldwide.     

Inertia effects of past behavior in commuting modal shift behavior: interactions,variations and implications for demand estimation

Transportation - This paper focuses on empirically investigating the inertia effects of past behavior in commuting modal shift behavior and contributes to the current state of the art by three...     

Travel experience matters: Expected personal mobility impacts after simulated L3/L4 automated driving

Transportation - Automated vehicles (AVs) are expected to change personal mobility in the near future. Most studies on the mobility impacts of AVs focus on fully automated (SAE L5) vehicles, but...     

Cohort analysis of driving cessation and limitation among older adults

Automobiles are central to participation in economic, social, and cultural activities in the United States. The ability to drive as one ages is fundamental to the quality of life among older adults. Driving rates decline significantly with age. Researchers using cross-sectional data have studied the reasons former drivers have stopped driving, but few have followed individuals over time to examine changes in relationships among driving cessation, socio-demographics, and health conditions. We used longitudinal data from a national sample of 20,000 observations from the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine relationships among demographic variables, health conditions, and driving reduction and driving cessation. Longitudinal data allow analysis of generational differences in behavior, a major advantage over cross-sectional data which only allow comparisons of different people at one point in time. We found, like many other studies, that personal decisions to limit and eventually stop driving vary with sex, age, and health conditions. In addition, unlike most previous studies, we also found that those relationships differ by birth cohort with younger cohorts less likely to stop and limit their driving than their older counterparts. The findings indicate an evolution in the association between driving cessation and its causes.

     

贵阳岩溶地层地铁盾构隧道工程中新型球状碳化钨刀具的研究与应用北大核心CSCD

在贵阳轨道交通3号线盾构隧道施工中,采用普通刀具易出现滚刀多边形磨损、偏磨、刀刃崩裂等异常磨损和刀圈脱落现象。为改进滚刀刀圈的耐磨、耐冲击性能,提高刀具的综合寿命,提出采用球状碳化钨刀具替换普通刀具,并介绍了激光熔覆焊工艺以及宏观磨损检测工艺。经过施工现场的实际应用,发现球状碳化钨刀具具有更好的耐磨性,新型球状碳化钨刀具平均磨损量为0.00255 mm/延米,相邻普通刀具平均磨损量为0.01655 mm/延米。在第338~736环掘进中,新型球状碳化钨刀具最大磨损量为0.015 mm/延米,刀具无崩刃现象,滚刀轴承、密封等均无异常,有效解决了普通刀具易磨损、磨损不均的问题,为喀斯特地质条件下盾构刀具的选型提供参考。     

复杂地应力红层泥岩隧道持续底鼓原因分析北大核心CSCD

为揭示复杂地应力红层泥岩隧道持续底鼓特征及底鼓原因,以某隧道为研究对象,通过长期变形监测、地下水位监测、隧底围岩位移监测等方法对底鼓变形特征进行了统计分析,并结合钻孔取芯岩样分析、地应力测试、围岩膨胀力测试、岩石蠕变试验、数值模拟分析等手段对可能导致隧道底鼓的因素逐一进行了分析。结果表明:受控于近水平层状泥岩以及复杂地应力,隧道部分段落呈现出底鼓时间“不收敛”、底鼓段落“不连续”、底鼓程度“不均衡”的三大特征;隧道岩层产状近水平,岩性为粉砂质泥岩,属于软质岩,未达到膨胀岩判定标准,具有中—低蠕变特性,隧址区地应力场以水平构造应力为主,水平应力在9.5~13.73 MPa之间;隧道开挖后,局部应力集中导致围岩发生蠕变,当蠕变产生的形变压力过大时,仰拱局部进入塑性状态,隧道即产生底鼓。     

特长高速公路隧道通风斜井钢波纹板式中隔墙技术研究北大核心CSCD

通风导洞中隔墙一般采用技术较为成熟的混凝土中隔墙,但存在表面粗糙、工艺复杂、施工进度不易控制等缺点,无法适用于风道较为复杂的工程。文章以东天山隧道1号斜井为依托,提出了节能型全拼装式钢波纹板中隔墙技术,通过数值模拟以及理论计算的方法验证其在单洞四风道通风斜井中的可行性。研究结果表明:钢波纹板式中隔墙增大了斜井有效通风截面积,断面风速降低约5.3%,同时大幅减小通风斜井内的沿程阻力,仅为既有混凝土墙方案的17%左右;拱顶变形及二次衬砌混凝土结构受力均远低于结构安全限值。该技术克服了传统钢筋混凝土中隔墙的缺点,在满足隧道通风防灾要求的同时,改善了隧道施工环境,且施工工期可缩短为原方案的三分之一。