Market segmentation as a mechanism in allowing for variability of traveller behaviour

A major problem with aggregate transport planning models is the accounting of variability in traveller behaviour when the basic unit of analysis is the geographical traffic zone. In an attempt to allow for this variance, recent attention has been given to the role of socio-economic (user and household) characteristics in systematically identifying a homogeneous grouping of travellers with respect to the issue under study rather than restricting the grouping definition according to physical geographical criteria alone. This homogeneous grouping criterion combined eventually with a necessity to represent travel demand in a spatial context, can assist in improving our ability to explain real travel patterns by the development of an improved aggregation condition. The emphasis is on modelling homogeneous groups of travellers separately, and then relating the individual sets of results to each other to obtain an aggregate prediction of behaviour via a knowledge of the representativeness of each group contained in the total sample. This paper presents a technique to identify the relative homogeneity of travellers in accordance with a specified criterion, and illustrates its use with individual household data for the Sydney Metropolitan Area. The paper concludes with a discussion of the advantages of segmentation in operational transport planning, in particular with reference to the aggregation of disaggregate behavioural travel choice models, or movement from a micro-model of individual choice behaviour to an aggregate model of travel demanu.     

An analysis of trip length and land use patterns in the Greater Athens Area

The research described in this paper is an attempt to quantify the impact of a certain distribution of land uses upon trip characteristics — notably trip lengths. The idea is to relate trip lengths classified by mode and purpose to the distance of one trip end from the conurbation centre. The latter is defined as the point which represents a reasonable estimate of the place where the economic, administrative, and cultural life of the urban area is centered.By relating trip lengths to the distance of one trip end from the centre, one could obtain a relation which in effect would be a quantitative expression of the relation between transport and land use. The first application of this idea was in London using the 1966 journey to work data, and it gave quite satisfactory results.The area examined in this research is the Greater Athens Area. The method of analysis is similar to that followed in London so the results of the two studies can be compared. Only work trips are considered for four modes: car, bus, train and all modes (total). It is found that in the case of Athens too, when distance of the workplace from the centre is considered, trip lengths change in smoothly varying ways and a series of mathematical curves can be fitted to the data with an acceptable degree of accuracy. These curves are of the Gamma family having a constant spread factor and varying scale factors for each mode considered. When the distance of the residence end of the trip from the centre is considered, the trip length distributions are not very smooth, a clear mathematical curve cannot be fitted, but again a considerable degree of order can be detected. In addition to the above results a discussion is given on their meaning and the possibilities for future research. In fact the results so far are considered to be the first stage of a more extended research programme which will eventually connect trip length distributions to income and other economic or social parameters in an urban area.The author wishes to express his thanks and appreciation for the comments and constructive criticism made on the various drafts of this paper by M.J.M.     

Public transit service operation strategy under indifference thresholds‐based bi‐modal equilibrium

This paper investigates public transit service (fare and frequency) operation strategies in a bi‐modal network with assumption of indifference thresholds‐based travelers' mode choice behavior. Under such behavior, users would switch to a new mode only if its utility is larger than the utility of current mode plus a threshold. The concept of indifference thresholds‐based bi‐modal equilibrium (ITBE) and the properties of the ITBE solution are explicitly proposed. Considering transit operator's different economic objectives (profit‐maximizing, no‐deficit and total system cost‐minimizing), the effect of indifference thresholds on transit fare and frequency schemes is studied. Some numerical experiments are accompanied to verify the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do new sources of traffic data make the application of Chaos Theory to traffic management a realistic possibility?

Current signal systems for managing road traffic in many urban areas around the world lack a coordinated approach to detecting the spatial and temporal evolution of congestion across control regions within city networks. This severely inhibits these systems’ ability to detect reliably, on a strategic level, the onset of congestion and implement effective preventative action. As traffic is a time-dependent and non-linear system, Chaos Theory is a prime candidate for application to Urban Traffic Control (UTC) to improve congestion and pollution management. Previous applications have been restricted to relatively uncomplicated motorway and inter-urban networks, arguably where the associated problems of congestion and vehicle emissions are less severe, due to a general unavailability of high-resolution temporal and spatial data that preserve the variability in short-term traffic patterns required for Chaos Theory to work to its full potential. This paper argues that this restriction can now be overcome due to the emergence of new sources of high-resolution data and large data storage capabilities. Consequently, this opens up the real possibility for a new generation of UTC systems that are better able to detect the dynamic states of traffic and therefore more effectively prevent the onset of traffic congestion in urban areas worldwide.     

Determining vehicle dispatch frequency when shipping frequency differs among suppliers

Collecting is a way to consolidate freight that involves trucks picking up material from more than one supplier on each trip to a single destination. Earlier research resulted in a method that optimizes collecting vehicle dispatch frequency and that assumes that all suppliers are visited on each dispatch. This paper develops a method that determines the optimal dispatch frequency when large suppliers are visited more frequently than are small suppliers. This added flexibility allows the combined inventory and transportation costs of collecting to be reduced. The method is developed analytically and illustrated with an example.     

Optimal offsets for traffic signal systems in urban networks

The paper proposes a binary integer programming model for the computation of optimal traffic signal offsets for an urban road network. The basic theoretical assumptions for the computation of delay on the network are those employed by the main models developed during the last few years. The set of input data coincides with that needed for the Combination Method and its extensions. The model is solved through a branch-and-backtrack method and allows the obtaining of optimal offsets for condensable or uncondensable networks without introducing any special assumption on delay-offset functions, contrary to what occurs within other mathematical programming formulations of the problem. A reduced memory dimension is required by the developed algorithm, which promptly supplies during the computation better and better sub-optimal solutions, very interesting in view of the possible application of the method to real-time control problems. The tests performed show that the method can be applied to networks of practical size.     

The life cycle concept as a tool for travel research

For understanding individual and household travel behavior, the concept of the life cycle holds promise. The history of this concept is presented, and the theoretical and methodological issues surrounding its use are examined.In travel research, the life-cycle concept tends to be adopted uncritically. Utilizing the 1977 Nationwide Personal Transportation Study, an analysis of travel behavior is presented in an attempt to address some of these inadequacies. A set of five houshold types and their life-cycle stages are identified: the typical (nuclear) family, the single parent family, the childless married couple, the single person household, and households of unrelated individuals, The average daily trip frequencies of households at each life cycle stage are reported.Comparison of trip-making by life-cycle stage for the five household types points to the presence of a life-cycle effect in travel, but the effect appears to consist of two separate components: household structure (the relationships among household members) and the age of household members. Also discussed, but not examined in this study, are other factors potentially contributing to the observed life-cycle patterns.It is concluded that further efforts to deal with the complexities of the life-cycle concept in travel research will be worthwhile. These efforts will provide a framework for viewing travel behavior over the human life span and this will be especially useful in assessing the impact of demographic change for transportation system planning.     

Dynamical Analysis of a Simple Vehicle on a Periodic Guideway

The dominant vertical motions of a simple vehicle traveling on a flexible periodic guideway is investigated. The mathematical model leads to a state equation with periodic coefficients and periodically jumping states. The aim of the paper is the dynamic analysis of the vehicle-guideway system with respect to stability, guideway deflections and vehicle accelerations. As alternative to the common simulation technique, the analytical solution based on Floquet theory is applied. Both methods are implemented in a computer program and used to perform a detailed parameter study which shows the dependence of the dynamical system behavior on the nondimensional system parameters.