Late Holocene history of the rainfall in the NW Iberian peninsula—Evidence from a marine record

This study reconstructs climatic variability over the last 4700 yr in the NW Iberian Peninsula on the basis of lithological, sedimentological, biogeochemical, micropaleontological (diatoms and biosiliceous compounds) and AMS ¹⁴C analyses conducted in a gravity core retrieved from the Galician continental shelf. The core was recovered at the Galicia Mud Patch, a muddy sedimentary body highly influenced by the terrestrial supply of the Miño and Douro rivers, and thus controlled by the rainfall variations over the catchment area. River plume transports the lithogenic and continental-derived compounds to the shelf area allowing us to recognize several periods of terrestrial/marine influence. These periods are well correlated with the lithological units identified. Coarser sediments, high values of Ca/Al, low values of Fe, Al and lithogenic Si (LSi) are representative of the marine-influenced periods. These stages are related to dry conditions and winds coming from the NE under a NAO positive-like phase.Terrestrial-influenced stages are characterized by muddy sediments, with high content of Fe, Al and LSi, freshwater and benthic diatoms, continental-derived organisms (crysophycean cysts and phytoliths) and high amount of land-derived organic matter as reported by the C/N ratios. The influence of NAO positive- and NAO negative-like periods and solar activity are the two mechanisms quoted to explain the climatic variability during the last 4700 years.Proxies for the lithogenic input and terrigenous content (non-organic material) show an increase at around 2000–1800 cal. yr BP, linked to the warmer conditions and high precipitation patterns during the Roman Warm Period, and soil erosion due to forest degradation and other anthropic activities. A strong river flow event is recorded in shelf sediments during 800–500 cal. yr BP. A pervasive NAO negative-like period, and the high irradiance registered during the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) controlled the precipitation and induced a high run-off and riverine influx during this event.     

An ensemble approach for conflict detection in Free Flight by data mining

Airborne separation assurance is a key requirement for Free Flight operations. A variety of conflict detection (CD) and resolution algorithms have been developed for this task. A lack of rigorous evaluation and the existence of an infinite number of possible conflict geometries in Free Flight makes the choice of which algorithm to be placed in the cockpit a challenging task for the designers of future air traffic management (ATM) systems. In this paper, we propose an ensemble approach for CD in Free Flight. The ensemble consists of several CD algorithms, a rule set for each algorithm describing its learned behavior from its past performance and a switch mechanism to choose an appropriate CD algorithm given probe characteristics. A novel mechanism to evolve complex conflict scenarios, using genetic algorithms (GA), is developed and integrated in a fast time air traffic simulator to generate the performance data of CD algorithms. Data mining techniques are then employed to identify implicit patterns in the probe characteristics where the CD algorithms missed or falsely identified a conflict. These patterns are formulated as rule sets for each CD algorithm and are then used by a switch in the ensemble to route a probe for conflict prediction. Given probe characteristics, the CD algorithm, which is less likely to miss or falsely identify a conflict, is selected to evaluate the probe for potential conflict. The performance of the ensemble and of individual algorithms is evaluated by comparing the Pareto efficient set of solutions generated by them. The ensemble approach demonstrates a significant reduction in the number of missed detects and false alarms as compared to individual algorithms. The proposed methodology is capable of accommodating existing as well as new CD models and can be extended to other ATM concepts as well.     

The relationship between design and economic performance of ships

Success in the shipping industry depends to large extent on the quality of the main asset: the ship. The owner or operator will ask herself: do I have the right ship for a certain job, and what performance can I achieve with a given ship. The relationship between the specifications of the ship, which are fixed in the design stage, and the economic performance of the ship has received some attention, but most of the previous work lacks in the extent to which economic performance is measured or expressed.

This paper describes an attempt to operationalize the concept of design for service in the maritime industry. The paper presents a lengthy review of previous work, which shows that some attention was devoted in the past to the relationship between economic and technical aspects of shipping. However, the 'economics' usually turned out to be simple cost calculations, instead of clear insight in costs and benefits of certain design decisions. The main variable for the shipowner to buy a ship, or to operate a ship on a certain route is earnings potential. The relation between technical specifications and earnings potential is fairly direct: desired earnings potential influences the design specifications, and the specification of the finished ship determine the earnings potential. The analysis in this paper shows that shipowners also consider cargo carrying capacity, speed and versatility, but no other, more detailed, design factors.

Subsequently, we present the design for service framework for the shipping industry. This framework points the attention to a thorough service requirements analysis that drives the design stage. Finally, some preliminary work is presented on empirical studies that are currently developed in the Netherlands.     

Critical success conditions of collaborative methods: a comparative evaluation of transport planning projects

This paper explores critical success conditions of collaborative planning projects in the area of urban transport, evaluating the impact of new collaborative methods, instruments and processes on project performance. Hypothesis building is based on a comparative, empirical research design, rather than on deductive theory construction. Potential critical success conditions are derived from literature. Based on five urban transport planning projects in Gothenburg (Sweden), London (United Kingdom), Milwaukee (United States), Tokyo (Japan) and Mexico City (Mexico), a rough set analysis of the five cases reveals validated success conditions, which can be used for formulating hypotheses for further research or for policy and process improvement. The results suggest that a dedicated management of the multi-actor network, a high diversity of actors, as well as an extensive use of knowledge integration methods in combination with a high network density are critical success conditions of these planning processes. Surprisingly, the extensive use of unilateral methods also showed to be an important success condition. The traditional role of the planner will have to be complemented with the expertise of network and methodology management. The authors conclude that rough set analysis can be a valuable addition to narrative, single-case analysis of collaborative urban transport planning processes.     

Variability of river plumes off Northwest Iberia in response to wind events

The Western Iberian Buoyant Plume (WIBP) is a low-salinity lens formed by river discharge and continental run-off extending along the shelf off Northwest Iberia. The variability of this structure is evaluated with a numerical model forced by real meteorological data and climatologic river discharge during late 2002, when conditions were those of a typical autumn. The direction and intensity of the wind-induced Ekman transport, but also the previous conditions and the duration of the event are found to determine plume behavior. We have identified three characteristic situations: a) confinement of the plume to the coast during downwelling — southerly-winds, b) expansion of the plume during the declining phase of the downwelling event by relaxation of the wind, and c) expansion of the plume by upwelling — northerly-winds. The short time scale of the response of the plume (1–3 h) adds timing between wind events and the phase of the tide as an additional source of variability. In all cases the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC), a saltier and warmer poleward current flowing over the slope, responds as well to wind changes. Furthermore, our simulations illustrate how topography and differences in the river discharge induce local differences in dynamics. Comparisons to available observations show a reasonable model skill. Differences between wind measurements and wind forcing applied to the model appear to be a major source of uncertainty in model results.     

Forecast verification of a 3D model of the Mediterranean Sea. The use of discrete wavelet transforms and EOFs in the skill assessment of spatial forecasts

The quality assessment of a nested model system of the Mediterranean Sea is realised. The model has two zooms in the Provençal Basin and in the Ligurian Sea, realised with a two-way nesting approach. The experiment lasts for nine weeks, and at each week sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level anomaly are assimilated. The quality assessment of the surface temperature is done in a spatio-temporal approach, to take into account the high complexity of the SST distribution. We focus on the multi-scale nature of oceanic processes using two powerful tools for spatio-temporal analysis, wavelets and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). We apply two-dimensional wavelets to decompose the high-resolution model and observed SST into different spatial scales. The Ligurian Sea model results are compared to observations at each of those spatial scales, with special attention on how the assimilation affects the model behaviour. We also use EOFs to assess the similarities between the Mediterranean Sea model and the observed SST. The results show that the assimilation mainly affects the model large-scale features, whereas the small scales show little or no improvement and sometimes, even a decrease in their skill. The multiresolution analysis reveals the connection between large- and small-scale errors, and how the choice of the maximum correlation length of the assimilation scheme affects the distribution of the model error among the different spatial scales.     

Residual circulation in the Ría de Muros (NW Spain): A 3D numerical model study

The residual circulation of the Ría de Muros, a large coastal embayment in NW Spain, are studied using a three-dimensional baroclinic finite-difference model. The driving forces considered by the model include the tide, winds, river inflows and density forcing at the open boundary. In situ data of current velocity and direction, water level, wind velocity and direction, river discharge, and temperature and salinity are used for model validation. Simulated and observed time series of water level and current velocity are in good agreement. Once validated, the model is applied to compute the residual circulation induced by the relevant agents of the ría hydrodynamics—the tide, an upwelling-favourable wind characteristic of spring and summer, a downwelling-favourable wind typical of winter, and freshwater inflows associated with high river runoff. The resulting residual circulation differ notably. The tide does not generate significant residual flows except in the inner ría. By contrast, winds and river discharges induce important residual flows throughout; in the middle and outer ría they generate a 3D residual circulation pattern which renders the conventional two-layer scheme of estuarine circulation too simplistic in this case. Thus, this first application of a 3D numerical model to the Ría de Muros sheds new light on its fundamental hydrodynamics.     

H2 optimal control of disturbance-delayed systems with application to vehicle suspensions

Optimal control of systems with time delays among disturbances, such as vehicle suspensions, is a relatively simple but long-standing problem in time-delayed control. We consider the exact H₂ optimal control of systems with time-delayed disturbances and develop a computationally efficient approach for controller synthesis. We extend the Lyapunov-based H₂ norm computation to systems with time-delayed disturbances and then derive a concise formula to explicitly evaluate the sensitivity of the system H₂ norm with respect to controller gains. Thence, a set of necessary conditions for H₂ optimal control of such systems using static output feedback are obtained in the form of algebraic equations. Gradient-based methods are adapted to optimize the controller gains. The method is also extended to reduced-order and decentralized control. As an application, a passive suspension system for an eight-DOF four-wheel vehicle is designed via structured H₂ optimization. The results are compared with those of a design based on a Pade expansion for the time delays and a design obtained by neglecting the disturbance delays.